Spot the Bear. Weekly chart analysis of S&P500

From your perspective, is the jobs market getting better?

Yes

29%

No

61%

Not sure

10%

Total Votes: 10661

Source: CNBC

Yet statistically unemployment rate keeps falling pointing to a divergence, which side tells the tale?

"Sure, Wall Street and the White House might have an incentive to convince people that the economy is better than it actually is. (The media, on the other hand, is encouraged to play up bad news) But it’s an insult to the public’s intelligence to suggest that it could be tricked into thinking the economy is good just because the Labor Department says so." D Trump
 
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romik said:
From your perspective, is the jobs market getting better?

Yes

29%

No

61%

Not sure

10%

Total Votes: 10661

Source: CNBC

Yet statistically unemployment rate keeps falling pointing to a divergence, which side tells the tale?

"Sure, Wall Street and the White House might have an incentive to convince people that the economy is better than it actually is. (The media, on the other hand, is encouraged to play up bad news) But it’s an insult to the public’s intelligence to suggest that it could be tricked into thinking the economy is good just because the Labor Department says so." D Trump
More...

you keep on posting nonsense

this market is heading higher but you're blind to see it
 
Pricechange said:
On thing to watch for even as the bear begins to show more clearly here is the US Govt cooking economic numbers which will make it harder to act on the bear once it is fully spotted.

1) This morning US supposedly "inadvertently" released early consumer spending data which was supposedly much better than expected (I smell Bullshit)
2) US crude inventories supposedly fall by larger than expected 5.9M barrels (complete bullshit)

both of these numbers above will be "revised downward" quietly, later in month propably late on a Friday afternoon
More...

the "accidentally" b.s. again...that's been going on for years now...the late 90's had a few episodes of accidental releases as well...I've got a decent confluence of resistance just a small amount higher from these current prices...maybe a small run above 2050 (ES) and then a snapback lower...regardless, this is the kind of PA that typically motivates me to do long ES scalps in futs/options since prices just start "sticking" and the volatility drops dramatically...Plus, the typical overnight ramps begin again once the volume drops from the real sellers...IOW, business as usual.
 
Somehow this chart just seems completely appropriate for this market...Takes "mean reversion" to another level:

spx_122415.jpg
 
Selling on the bounce follow-up.....yea, I guess it goes without saying.

Trying to spot the bear through near term market behavior. So, we had a bounce (Christmas rally) and I am selling into this rally as of the London session (short ES at 2050 stop at 2060)
 
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Two charts. First is GBPJPY, which IMO is displaying countertrend formation, potential safety play if equity markets change trend and NYSE chart.

gbpjpy.png


NYSE.png
 
It trades like a bear market, but the rallies are so sharp and extended that it's near impossible to establish a longer term position (without a ton of stress)...Ultimately, the best bet is to find some of the obscure indicies (like an equal weight or something similar) and play those instead...Russell isn't too bad, but the NDX,INDU, SPX are always on the verge of some week long squeeze into new highs...
 
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