What's your typical holding period, if you don't mind me asking? Are you price action trading?
Spoofing becoming illegal
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
Rhythmic/TOD trades, 180 seconds. Technical/"Price Action" trades can be for 4 hours. Almost everything I do is now robotic. Occasional weekend holding if I score value on a Friday 5:15PM puke in Crude. Strong bias in Crude to open long positions mornings and shorts afternoons (profound reliable rhythm in the market right now). Remember, the market-making machines are in it for cash and don't want to hold any futures overnight. So, study CME markets for balanced rhythms, up-then-down or down-then-up. And, understand any biased push (price defending by Industry) is more effective during a lull (less resistance), such as before the regular floor Open or release of market-moving data, periods when thoughtful traders are waiting. If you look carefully, you'll see the rhythms. The exact TOD changes day to day, but the sequencing has reliable periodicity. There are hours of the day where this sequencing repeats the prior hour with regularity (10AM and 11AM, for example). You can't match minute-by-minute, but you can match "must have one dip of at least 12 cents before :19" as an example. So, I have a robot who wakes up at :16 and if it hasn't dipped yet he puts on a Sell for +10c/-20c max hold 180 seconds. So, this is what I do, and it works very well. But the trades are small to avoid detection. And, if I may, one key- the robot always says "If I'd put this trade on 3 minutes ago, would it have paid?" If "yes," then it doesn't trade- the move it is looking for has already happened. This is easy to program and hard to do by hand/eye. So I find robots help me trade better.
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Good insight @None Business . Thank you for sharing.
Anyone following WTI, we just had a 20-cent predatory wash attack 5 minutes ago, with crude going transiently 15 cents wide at the bottom so any robots who bought there (at market) actually paid more than the price before the 20-cent drop. Price right back where it started within 3 minutes, of course. It was an extraordinary attack, really.
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IAS, Globex trades during Holidays. It's basically "business as usual" excepting for less liquidity/more volatility with New York offline, and a slightly earlier, London-centric "hard" close. The re-opens (1800 ET) are right back on schedule for Singapore.
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IAS, I mentioned a specific "signature" related to a series of naive 1-contract Buys during a lull. The moves have a classic signature, distinguished from other price action.
Go look at the 1AM hour, and note the dips at :15 and :45 exactly on-rhythm as I mentioned to you. The market is quiet so the superimposed rhythms are very stark right now.
Remember, to begin to train your eyes you must have Volumes up as well as Prices.
Don't chase a move if you miss it, else you will lose. Just wait 30 minutes and try again.
Certain hours (esp. 3AM and 4AM) are extremely volatile with a lot of Positioning by once-daily momentum-trading Systems involved. 2AM is a crap-shoot.
Finally, check the Bid-Ask spread. If 3 cents or more in Crude, do not trade. It's a guarantee there is only one machine making the market.
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