SP500 - High Probability predictions for 2016

[Stewie]

However, I think you are confusing a prediction with a trading call.

I'm not actually. I'm fully aware of the benefits and limitations of both. When it comes to trading, predictions are nice, good things to talk about in the chat feature, and are extremely useful for making yourself feel good about how much you think you know. Its easy to forget bad predictions and just remember the good ones.

A trading call though locks you into a position. It forces you to say that your prediction is the correct one. You not only have to be right eventually, you pretty much have to be right from the get go.

The point of my chart was that he made a prediction about the markets, but this prediction was so far out, it could happen any time in 2016, that it was pretty much useless. If someone was to use this prediction to place a trade, he's fucked. The prediction wasn't even actually half way down the move, it was only about 1/3 of the way down, so there was actually 2/3 more to go. (ie. he posts a bullish prediction just as the market is starting to tank)

Now of course we can't beat him up for this, it was after all only a prediction, and he never did say to enter at the time anyway. But what we do have is an actual trading call. The entry is nice, price only went about 10 points against him overnight before rallying, which made him add to the position at a lower price somewhere, but as I keep saying, he's not explaining the issue with the average price.

he does not seem to like to talk exits,

Don't you think the exit is pivotal? Yes his trade was up over 100 points, but why was the exit posted so late? If price came down as it did throughout the day, but shot back up to make even newer highs, he could have just as easily said he was still in, and we'd all be so impressed with his long term crystal ball.

I don't think you should expect entry exit and stop from his posts because he is an advanced trader that does all sort of complex stuff

LOL. You know, even advanced traders need to enter and exit if they are to make money. I know he's all scared to give something away, or he doesn't want others to follow his trades, or, well who knows what else it can be. But if you think critically enough, without talking entries and exits, anyone can sound smart in this game.

I have no proof that he is full of it, and much of what he says about trading I agree with, but based on this one and only call that I've seen him make with an actual entry and exit, he failed miserably in the transparency department.

 

[Autodidact]

IM,

Sorry no more PMs, they were getting out of hand.

Stewie,

I posted an official broker statement in ET, who the fuck does that here, I mean seriously, this is the land of mofing paper traders, get real mate. What's next my penis size certified by my urologist? GTFO.

 

[Stewie]

Stewie,

I posted an official broker statement in ET, who the fuck does that here, I mean seriously, this is the land of mofing paper traders, get real mate. What's next my penis size certified by my urologist? GTFO.

Once again though AD, can you explain why your average price is so different from what it should be given your two different entries? Also, why can't you just say that your post about your exit was 8 hours too late?

What you posted wasn't an official statement, it was a little piece. Here is one of mine... big deal!

Most don't post it, I agree, but if an entry and exit is posted within a minute, and this is done over and over again, a broker statement isn't necessary.

Since the only thing you're after here is a boost to the ego, which is fine, you will have to try a little harder to impress me. Others might be impressed, but it doesn't fulfill my criteria for what I consider to be transparent trade postings.

 

[romik]

I must admit I see the point Stewie is trying to make, not trying to be disrespectful or anything like that, nobody really cares whether it's real money or not, but what folks do like to see is a simple real-time post 'Long filled at ...' and 'Sold at ...' It only takes few seconds to do so, if one doesn't want to post in real-time for whatever reason, then probably best not to post after the fact to avoid unnecessary questions. Peace you all

 

[NoBias]

@Stewie - If I am to be discredited by association so be it... yes, he is a friend, but not just a friend a highly respected friend and trader.

I traded with AD and a select group of traders in a private chat room for many years. We collaborated on setups and opportunities. We shared analysis pre-market and had a system for making live calls, exits real time or if we were not GLUED to the screen we advised pre-determined entry/exit points (targets) and conditions which would invalidate a setup (trade) . If it wasn't transparent, it wasn't posted. I left the room for personal reasons unrelated to trading or the room., If it wasn't for these personal reasons I would most likely still be in it or some other form of collaboration with many of those traders.

That was a trading room, serious, dedicated hard work, money on the line.

This is ET... an outlet for boredom, comic relief and the occasional general posting of ones opinion based on their research and trade experience.

Trading is a solitary activity, one can socialize, analyze, share thoughts and ideas... but when it comes down to executing, reacting, money management, identifying and ACCEPTING when wrong that is something that can not be taught... it takes years to achieve a level of understanding and appropriate mind set.

The true skills in trading are psychological, discipline, trade mgmt, reacting to failures or identifying when a trade goes against your Pre-DETERMINED PLAN and closing the trade, accepting the loss. No hoping, emotion, unplanned adding, changing your plan and all the other noobie responses...

AD's discipline and skill set are exceptional, it goes far beyond simple entries and exits or a subjective line one calls S/R without any true research, testing or statistics. I have first hand experience on the man's work ethic, the years of research he invested studying price action creating statistics which he applied to his trading...

Yes, he is a successful and knowledgeable trader.

No, I doubt he has any intention of sharing his edge with unappreciative cynical anonymous internet persona.

Myself, you discredit due to my association and lack of background knowledge.

I am a private person, I do not require internet validation... You will not find any of my posts which reference a trade call for one very important reason. I honor my word. Which is reflected in this post.

I do like to assist others when ever possible, but now I limit my assistance to hardware, software and technology. In the past I attempted to help new, wannabee traders by directing them to educational resources (not snake oil), but no one ever desired to put forth the effort. Everyone wants to be spoon fed. I for one refuse to help those who aren't willing to help themselves.

AD has a sharing and charitable nature, he generally likes to help people, hence he shares his opinions and thoughts in a general manner when he has the inclination. He loves trading, it courses through his veins. However, as i mentioned I doubt he has any intention of giving away the edge which feeds his family.

Now you have three options:

1, "Puke" to my response as being "over the top" and Discredit me which is fine, as I really don't care...

2, Perhaps listen to what the man has to share and accept the limitation of that information. Gleen what you can from it.

3, Call the bet, I can guarantee that he can back up his trades. He was called out and responded. I am so confident I was willing to bet $1,000 as well...

AD doesn't have an ego about being right, he will be the first to tell you that he is wrong more often than he is right.

His ego stems from his being successful due to his dedication, hard work and integrity. When it comes to trading AD is serious as a heart attack...

Confront him, challenge his integrity... he will respond...

 

[candles]

Before it turns into another pissing contest, who really cares?
We can all vouch for various people. There's SO MANY traders here who make boat loads of money everday. There's a few who I know who make more than most would believe, and they barely even post and don't have any kind of ego and so wouldn't even be considered one of the 'good traders' by most ET'ers

 

[Chris Mac]

Trading is a solitary activity, one can socialize, analyze, share thoughts and ideas... but when it comes down to executing, reacting, money management, identifying and ACCEPTING when wrong that is something that can not be taught... it takes years to achieve a level of understanding and appropriate mind set.

The true skills in trading are psychological, discipline, trade mgmt, reacting to failures or identifying when a trade goes against your Pre-DETERMINED PLAN and closing the trade, accepting the loss. No hoping, emotion, unplanned adding, changing your plan and all the other noobie responses...

Bravo ! All is said. +1
Best 2016 post.

CM

 

[Stewie]

Confront him, challenge his integrity... he will respond...

First of all, thank-you for the very lovely response. Almost all of what you say I am more than happy to agree with. Most of it cannot be verified, which is fine, but it certainly sounds like you are speaking from the heart.

AD doesn't have an ego about being right,

This part I'm not sure I agree with. The very first thing that he says when someone share's a different opinion is to bet them. If he doesn't need the bet money, since he is doing so well, then the money just feeds the ego. A person who doesn't need to get their ego stroked wouldn't be the first to throw around bets. Its simply childish.

Confront him, challenge his integrity... he will respond...

This is what I have tried to do. You see, I do see lots of wisdom behind what he says, but I have to be careful that I am looking at all of this objectively. Look at psychics. Often times, they stick to generalities when making predictions so as not to ever get some blatantly wrong. Likewise, his bullish attitude had started when the market was at its highs a couple of weeks ago, and he has done nothing but to keep pumping this viewpoint each time it goes lower. If he was to be humble, which you seem to imply he is, I think an explanation about this is in order because while he has been bullish, the market has done nothing but go lower. His calls have so far only been good enough for a bounce. Even his most recent prediction of looking for longs around 4166 NDX was only good enough for a day, which isn't his style in these predictions.

But of course all of this is just circumstantial and predictions aren't worth much until money is put on the line. So all we can come back to is the call. He took it upon himself to prove how right he was by posting a trade entry. Now, he cannot explain why the exit was posted so late. He can't even admit/acknowledge that he posted the exit far too late. The screen captures don't mean much because he doesn't have a history of previous trades that were legit that we could fall back onto to give him the benefit of the doubt. And lastly, why is that average price so far off from where I think it should be based on the two posted entries?

You know, because this average price is so far off, I am more than inclined to believe its all legit because how else could you make up a number like this, unless of course you got it right from your broker. But this means that the way those contracts were accumulated isn't exactly how he says they were. And if there isn't transparency about how he came to buy these contracts, then how can we even begin to believe his exit that was posted over 8 hours too late? (Perhaps you can shed some light on this average price because its not something I have too much experience with. I suppose I could go through replay and test this out to see how the platform will calculate it, but it doesn't seem like rocket science)

So you see, I'd love to believe everything you say, but the picture you paint of the man isn't the same picture of the way AD is acting in the forums. He might be generous in real life, he might be generous with you, but here at ET, he is acting not as humbly and ego free as you state. None of this I care about mind you. I only care about facts that can be verified, and in this example, the facts don't line up, and he isn't attempting to explain the discrepancy.

 

[Bry]

all joking aside, i just got out, and it hurts....
will hurt even more if i got out at bottom of the day, but looks very, very bearish

 

[speedo]

Stewie, your concerning your self with the wrong stuff. What someone else says or does should be irrelevant to you. A guy in here could be trading from his yacht off Monte Carlo or he could be sitting drunk in a sec 8 apartment. The only thing that matters is your own trade.