Valid point.
SP500 - High Probability predictions for 2016
- Thread starter Autodidact
- Start date
Valid point.
nice!
Agreed, I just wanted to make sure that for the sake of other reading this thread, there was a valid point raised that was completely glossed over by AD. I would imagine any respectable trader would explain. If you go down the road of posting live calls, and hence put it out there, it only makes sense that you can backup whatever it is that you put out there.
I agree, but the thread at the start was about a bet that Autodidact took for 2016. Public calls like these are courageous so I can t accept Stewie trolling. Too easy, and noobish too.
CM
First of all, I wasn't trolling. If someone goes to the trouble to make a call, and post details of their entry, and then post details of another entry, showing also what their average price is, and then if you see that 2+2 doesn't equal 4, asking why isn't trolling. Furthermore, if someone posts an entry on time, one should also assume that an exit is also posted in a timely manner, and not over 8 hours later.
But since you mention why this thread started, lets look on a chart. I have marked where it started. I can only assume that AD made this post after he figured that price bounced off from support at the previous swing low. That day, on Jan 4, we finished with an incredible rally at the end of the day. It made sense at the time to get all bullish. But we all know what happened after.
His original post isn't even all that remarkable. The predictions are just so wide that its useless. And then when he actually makes a bold statement by posting an actual trade at a particular price and time, he messes up posting the exit, and badly.
Critical thinking is a skill that many seem to lack.
It takes some guts to make a prediction. If the guy is right he gets a little credit, if he is wrong, he is lynched.
I am very appreciative that autodidact took the risk to start this thread, and I hope there will be a lot more of these types of threads. Multiple heads are better than one.
But there is a problem with posters wanting public recognition for their trading prowess. I mean, truly great traders are private about their trading. Anyone who needs laudation has a fragile ego concerning trading, lapping up praise like a dog dying of thirst.
By the way: I PREDICTED THE BOUNCE ON THE SPX AT 1880!!! (See my previous, humble post.) Will it make it to 2000-2040 and make me right twice?
Please, no applause. Just toss gold coins at my feet.
It takes no guts to make a prediction. It takes guts to enter a trade. On ET, we have a million predictions, but very few entries posted. Of course money is only made after an exit. Where that exit is determines everything.
Perhaps you're not familiar with how arrogant AD is. His bullish prediction was essentially only half way down this huge drop.
Multiple heads usually have opposing ideas. Trading is not a team sport.
So what exactly do you mean here? AD is the one who challenges anyone who disagrees with him. He's like the kid at school who wants to beat you up for your lunch money.
What did you do about it? Just predict, or did you enter a trade?
Stewie,
I'm also a newcomer with moderate experience. However, I think you are confusing a prediction with a trading call. AD spoke about the edges for the year, that is why he posted them at year end, what would hold as support and the top he marked acting as a potential magnet, that's about it. The way I see it he suggested to buy low and try to shoot for that return-line he marked if you nail the bottom, at least that's my interpretation. At the same time, yesterday after a massive outside bar drop of nearly 3% he mentioned that 4166 in nasdaq 100 cash index looked good for a long and that fear should be bought, I have no idea where he exited or if he did exit at all, he does not seem to like to talk exits, all I know is that was a great area and fear was indeed absorbed by the bulls. I don't think you should expect entry exit and stop from his posts because he is an advanced trader that does all sort of complex stuff but he has helped in the past and he is indeed full of trading wisdom and yes, a massive ego, as you said, very arrogant.
Anyway my 2 cents, good luck to you and everyone else, and to me as well, as I'm heavily underwater on my 401k this year
PS: AD, I can no longer send you PMs, you dont accept them anymore, email perhaps?
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