SP500 - High Probability predictions for 2016

My claim is 2015 lows hold in 2016 and we take 2015 highs in 2016.

If you willing to bet against that, we can figure something out that's acceptable for both.

Okay, let's be creative for once and also do something good at the same time. Here's my plan. Do you see the high and the low marked on the chart below? 2134 was the 2015 high and 1831 was the 2015 low. Since you say ES will take out the 2015 high, I will donate $2,134 to a charity of your choice if that happens. On the other hand, if ES breaks below the 2015 low, you are to donate $1,831 to a charity of my choosing. Deal?


upload_2016-1-5_22-7-20.png
 
The next support is at 1945, less than 20 points from where ES is currently trading. Should we close below that level, which I'm certain we will, we are heading straight down to the OP's much beloved 2015 low.
 
The next support is at 1945, less than 20 points from where ES is currently trading. Should we close below that level, which I'm certain we will, we are heading straight down to the OP's much beloved 2015 low.

that's extremely unlikely, if it goes to 1940s it's bouncing to 2000s
 
that's extremely unlikely, if it goes to 1940s it's bouncing to 2000s
My hunch is that once we penetrate below 1945, we swoon down to 1900. We'll then bounce and retest the 1945 area again before heading lower. Only time will tell, I guess. Anyway, good trading y'all.
 
The next support is at 1945, less than 20 points from where ES is currently trading. Should we close below that level, which I'm certain we will, we are heading straight down to the OP's much beloved 2015 low.
Well, well, we're already there. Just stamped 47.25 as the low. This is getting really interesting.
 
1) 2015 lows will hold in SP500 in 2016, no doom and gloom, and no, I'm not a permabull, ask me again in 2017.

2) Resistance and high probability of 2016 year highs *AREA* marked on chart attached.

OK, I like to bet (for SPX):

1. 2015 lows will be broken.
2. No new ATHs in 2016.

Whoever is wrong will never post on ET again...
 
From brother Surf:

"Oh man-- what a terrible way to start the year. Wemiscalculated the international pressure on the US indexes for now"

This is exactly what the FED and other officials will say if indexes continue to slide - it's because of China, nothing wrong with US economy!
 
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