Let’s talk numbers
China 1.4 billion pop
After 105 days
81,000 cases
3200 deaths
US
329 mil pop
3621 cases
63 deaths
First case was announced Jan 22 in US
So by April 25 I predict at worst case we will have
~ 20,000 cases in the US
And ~ 800 deaths
SP500 back to $3300 by end of month
- Thread starter orbit23
- Start date
Let’s talk numbers
China 1.4 billion pop
After 105 days
81,000 cases
3200 deaths
US
329 mil pop
3621 cases
63 deaths
First case was announced Jan 22 in US
So by April 25 I predict at worst case we will have
~ 20,000 cases in the US
And ~ 800 deaths
Sorry to say but you can't possibly be that gullible. First, you shouldn't trust everything the Chinese government is saying. To think they are the most open and transparent society is like sticking your head up your ass hoping all is well. I wouldn't be surprised if they revise their numbers down the road. Now that the limelight of corona is on Europe and elsewhere, they're just taking the opportunity to deflect any responsibility. Hell, they're even bold as to claim that Uncle Sam secretly spread the virus on their soil. Well, they either have a small head or a big ass.
Second, from what I hear, Corona is constantly mutating. Nobody knows for sure how long this would last and there's no guarantee that there will be no second wave of attack from its variant form. Even the Spanish Flu had three waves of onslaught.
1918 Pandemic Influenza: Three Waves
I agree we should take what China says with a grain of salt.
NYC has now closed their school districts. The Fed cut rates to zero and is going to inject $500 billion into treasuries and MBSs. We should be asking ourselves where that money is coming from. What pot did they rob to fund this venture. We are still probably paying for the $11 billion we had shell out for the Federal employees who were furloughed awhile ago. That was just a few weeks. This will last as far as the eye can see.
Government employees like teachers are being paid while they don't work because schools are closing. Where is that money coming from? The debt amasses.
The SFSP is having trouble serving food to children due to antiquated bylaws, which prevent them from serving to poor kids in more affluent districts that normally rely on that food.
This isn't just a coronavirus problem; it is a full-blown economic problem that has yet to be "priced in" as some people inanely say. We have yet to see the full ramifications of this.
Where is the money coming from? printing press? -> stagflation (rampant unemployment with inflation)?
NYC has now closed their school districts. The Fed cut rates to zero and is going to inject $500 billion into treasuries and MBSs. We should be asking ourselves where that money is coming from. What pot did they rob to fund this venture. We are still probably paying for the $11 billion we had shell out for the Federal employees who were furloughed awhile ago. That was just a few weeks. This will last as far as the eye can see.
Government employees like teachers are being paid while they don't work because schools are closing. Where is that money coming from? The debt amasses.
The SFSP is having trouble serving food to children due to antiquated bylaws, which prevent them from serving to poor kids in more affluent districts that normally rely on that food.
This isn't just a coronavirus problem; it is a full-blown economic problem that has yet to be "priced in" as some people inanely say. We have yet to see the full ramifications of this.
Where is the money coming from? printing press? -> stagflation (rampant unemployment with inflation)?
I've been saying this for a while now. It won't be long before the US becomes "Japan, version 2".
That 3300 is looking like Mt. Everest!!!
So do they close the markets for a week or 2, that would cause crazy panic. The selling is just insane. Think about all those stock buybacks and mergers and acquisitions where companies paid top dollar.....we may get a quick bounce but like I said these will be rip roaring rallies in a bear market.
Stocks look cheap yes but they can get a lot cheaper. The only thing that's causing my to believe a rally is close is the vix. It's at an unbelievable height. Dont think it sustains such a level for much longer.
So do they close the markets for a week or 2, that would cause crazy panic. The selling is just insane. Think about all those stock buybacks and mergers and acquisitions where companies paid top dollar.....we may get a quick bounce but like I said these will be rip roaring rallies in a bear market.
Stocks look cheap yes but they can get a lot cheaper. The only thing that's causing my to believe a rally is close is the vix. It's at an unbelievable height. Dont think it sustains such a level for much longer.
Apples to oranges.
US doesn’t have widely distributed testing so there will be a slower ramp up and then exponential slope before leveling off.
In 3 months time, such a distinction will be irrelevant since we will be deep in recession. Hopefully, there will be a cure before then.
Funny how Goldman Sachs said they thought it wouldn't reach 2450 for a few months. We breached that level only a few days after they said that. Now they say 2,000.
Whatever any analyst or banks says is their target, subtract a few hundred points.