SP500 back to $3300 by end of month

Same Lazy Element said:
Have you actually looked at the tick data to dissect what happened? Do "ESH0 Index QR <GO>" on your Bloomberg terminal, very easy and it will show you the breakdown of the trades. If you give me the exact time that happened, I am stuck at home and bored enough to do it myself tomorrow :)
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I'm curious what this information gives you. Can you share an example? Never heard of this.
 
orbit23 said:
Market has bottomed on friday on maximum fear and panic as Trump declared a national emergency. The liquidity has been used to start closing shorts 'en masse by the big boys.

In the next 2 weeks, markets will recover and SP500 will end the month of March at $3300. First two days of the week might be sideways or slightly down, but after that we will go only up, day after day, printing gains until SP500 reachs $3300 in about 2 weeks time.
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EOM quarterly 325 SPY lottery tickets bid for (.03) pesos.
 
nooby_mcnoob said:
I'm curious what this information gives you. Can you share an example? Never heard of this.
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I will whip something together later. Hopefully, my dealer is stopping by and I will be mellow while doing it.

General idea is that you can see people post orders as actual quotes and quantities traded broken by actual fills. As a result you can guess who got shafted, who cleaned up and maybe come up with causal relationships.

In spooz it's hard to make heads and tails of TaQs unless you really zoom into a very small window. Of course smaller players like myself would not have the infra to trade the book in ES anyway, that's Jump and HRT territory. However, in something less liquid and speedy you can see stuff like "oh, look some guy posted 500 at the offer and instantly the bid faded, he chased and got f*cked (also instantly)". You see these patterns enough times and can actually use them as either source of alpha or an adversity model.
 
Same Lazy Element said:
Bah, really, a nobody? There are several institutional traders/PMs who stop by here because they like socializing, are bored etc. In any case, people here know who I am and yes, I have traded that type of size over the course of my career :)


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A legend in your mind. Right because hedge fund managers waste talking on a blue peter forum. :rolleyes:
 
hhiusa said:
A legend in your mind. Right because hedge fund managers waste talking on a blue peter forum. :rolleyes:
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Congratulations, you just shit on one of the half dozen people on this forum who are professionals who actually trade for a living and know wtf they're talking about.

I have to agree with the douche assessment. Double douche actually because people like you make the people who do add value less likely to stick around and contribute. What's your problem anyway?
 
I think it is safe to say SP will not be gaining 900 points by March 31st. If anything, it is looking to lose a few hundred more, and prolly be at around 1700-1800 by end of April. That's a nice comfortable 50 percent drop, yes?
 
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