South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West

NOTES TO SELF:

The following currency pairs are adequately structured to support a strategically positioned reversal of the intraday trend within the next 24 hours:

AUDJPY bounced off the bottom of the day range about nine hours ago and is well structured at the moment for heading north.

EURAUD is headed for the lower band of the day range, currently located at about 1.5636, so be watching for a reversal to the north and enter a long position if it actually manifests.

EURPY popped up above the intraday moving averages during the last hour of trading on Friday after crawling its way below the anticipated day range, so enter a long position when and if a new trend to the north is established and try to milk a minimum of 40-pips profit out of the trade if possible.

GBPJPY bounced off the lower bands of the two central price ranges about six hours ago and then started heading north. Buying the pair is therefore a possibility, but might not be advisable given the turbulent financial environment characterizing Britain at the moment.

GBPUSD has consolidated at the lower bands of the central price ranges and is therefore a candidate for turning north. But again, even if this happens, it might not be a good idea to buy the pair given the turbulent financial environment of the Pound.

NZDPY bounced off the lower band of the day range four hours ago and presently appears to be trying to head north.

NZDUSD is wallowing in the southern region of all three price ranges, so be watching for the signal to enter a long position.

USDCHF might have turned south during the last hour of trading on Friday, but this needs to be confirmed. Even if true however, this pair’s limited range and haphazard behavior make it an undesirable pair to trade.

USDJPY is currently locked in a pronounced northward trajectory, so a momentary pullback in the intraday trend might constitute a nice opportunity to enter a long position.
 
NOTES TO SELF:

Now that I appear to have made a successful transition from having to limit myself to a guerrilla warfare style of intraday scalping (if I wish to trade profitably) to recently being able to also incorporate a pseudo-swing style of day trading (to the degree of sometimes enjoying an average win-to-loss ratio of from 1:1 up to 5:1) I’m going to now make an attempt to throw daily charts into the mix in the hope of capitalizing on even longer-term trends.

To do so, I’m going to need to define some new terms for myself…

The charts will consist of what I’m labeling as the red, mid, and green zones. The red and green zones are the levels where the day-to-day trend tends to reverse direction. The middle region is the region that the candlesticks must cross to get from one extreme to the other.

When the candlesticks leave the green zone, they tend to continue heading south for an extended period of time, so such situations might present significant opportunities to capitalize on entering short positions. Likewise, candlesticks tend to continue heading north when leaving the red zone, so such situations might possibly present significant opportunities to capitalize on entering long positions.

Sometimes, instead of bouncing off either of the zones, price remains inside one zone for an extended period of time. This situation seems to be indicative of an abnormally strong trend. It might therefore be a good idea to adopt a bias for entering long positions when this occurs in the green zone, and for entering short positions when it occurs in the red zone.

As a sort of shorthand for indicating that this is the situation, I will refer to these circumstances as “bullish with extreme prejudice” or “bearish with extreme prejudice.”

Currently, EURAUD is bearish with extreme prejudice, having remained in the red zone for all of November. Presently, the day-to-day trend is bearish as well.

On the other hand, NZDJPY is bullish with extreme prejudice, having remained in the green zone for most of November. Presently, its day-to-day trend is bullish as well. NZDUSD is more-or-less in the same situation, though not completely engulfed in the uppermost region.

AUDUSD has been descending ever since January and rejected entering the green zone twice in November, so even though the day-to-day trend is currently bullish, the pair might soon opt to take an extended trip south, from the bottom of the green zone at 0.7333 to the top of the red zone at 0.7019.

AUDJPY is in a similar situation, except that it has pretty much been in consolidation/range bound since March.

Other day-to-day trends…

CADJPY is technically bearish at the moment.

:)-EURGBP is bullish with a red daily candlestick, so when the market opens next week, look for opportunities to enter long positions.

:)-EURJPY is technically bullish, but has been relatively range bound (in consolidation) ever since November 12th. Given that today saw the formation of a red candlestick, when the market opens next week, be looking for opportunities to enter long positions with a possible take-profit target of 129.21.

:)-Technically, EURUSD has been bullish for two or three days. Again, given that Friday saw the formation of a red candlestick, be prepared to enter a long position (if and when given the go-ahead to do so) when the market opens next week.

USDCAD is bullish and entering the green zone.

GBPJPY turned bearish on Friday. GBPUSD has been headed south overall ever since November 11th.

:)-Though the day-to-day trend is technically bearish, USDCHF formed green candlesticks on both Thursday and Friday. Moreover, the pair exited the green zone on November 16th, so it is possible that the asset is in the midst of an extended trip south. Either way, it is primed to sell at the moment, if and when market conditions warrant it.

USDJPY is technically bearish at the moment.
 
expiated said:
Now that I appear to have made a successful transition from having to limit myself to a guerrilla warfare style of intraday scalping (if I wished to trade profitably) to recently being able to also incorporate a pseudo-swing style of day trading (to the degree of sometimes enjoying an average win-to-loss ratio of from 1:1 up to 5:1) I’m going to now make an attempt to throw daily charts into the mix in the hope of capitalizing on even longer-term trends.
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Thanks be to God, it occurred to me how I might translate a key feature of my just-designed three-zoned daily charts down to the lower time frames. Now if I can simply learn to interpret the charts skillfully, I believe this might very well empower me with the ability to trade with a clarity unprecedented in my past experience, and given that in the past I have traded with up to a 90%+ daily success rate, I am extremely optimistic this could lead to a trading regiment which takes me from where I am now to where I ultimately want to be in much less time than originally planned.

Lower Time Frame Adaptation of My Three-zoned Daily Chart Setup​
ScreenHunter_2681 Nov. 30 20.08.jpg
 
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expiated said:
On the other hand, NZDJPY is bullish with extreme prejudice, having remained in the green zone for most of November. Presently, its day-to-day trend is bullish as well. NZDUSD is more-or-less in the same situation, though not completely engulfed in the uppermost region.
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I have added two of my dynamic support and resistance envelopes to my daily chart setup along with an opening position oscillator in the lower panel, which I feel provide me with extremely valuable additional information.

Based on this more complete picture, I'm noting that for the New Zealand pairs to continue pushing north, they will have to fight resistance all the way, NZDJPY beginning at about 78.15, and NZDUSD starting around 0.6885.

Consequently, if interested in entering long positions, it would be advisable for me to wait for their rates to drop down to some level of relatively significant statistical support. Presently, that would be somewhere around 77.22 for NZDPY and 0.6801 for NZDUSD.
 
expiated said:
AUDUSD has been descending ever since January and rejected entering the green zone twice in November, so even though the day-to-day trend is currently bullish, the pair might soon opt to take an extended trip south, from the bottom of the green zone at 0.7333 to the top of the red zone at 0.7019. AUDJPY is in a similar situation, except that it has pretty much been in consolidation/range bound since March.
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If AUDUSD does opt to turn south, the first target suggested by my data is 0.7241, with more ambitious targets at 0.7196 and 0.7168, respectively. Nonetheless, some degree of caution is warranted here in that there currently exists the slightest hint of a possibility that the pair's nine- or ten-month trek southward might perhaps be coming to an end. Accordingly, AUDJPY should be watched carefully as well.

However, given that the Aussie pairs currently have bullish day-to-day trends, as long as this remains the case, AUDJPY's buy levels are presently at 82.55, or better yet, 82.19; and AUDUSD's are at 0.7271, or better still, 0.7239.

There is a very good chance however that these pairs will not pull back, but will keep heading higher from where they are right now.
 
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expiated said:
CADJPY is technically bearish at the moment.
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At this time, I would have to seriously consider buying the pair should its rate drop down to 84.86, or even more so at 84.62. (The pair's rate has been rising gradually ever since March.)
 
expiated said:
:)-EURGBP is bullish with a red daily candlestick, so when the market opens next week, look for opportunities to enter long positions.
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This pair might constitute a nice selling opportunity if and when the day-to-day trend turns bearish. Its rate has been falling since the end of August and if it opts to adopt another leg to the south, the data suggests it might fall at least as low as 0.8661.
 
Though I am looking to buy the other Euro pairs, I did not put EURAUD on the list because it's bearish sentiment is so pronounced. If it continues dropping however, it will be fighting support every inch of the way. More ideal levels from which to sell the pair are up at 1.5681, or better yet, 1.5777.

At this time, the most ideal levels at which to buy the other Euro pairs are as follows:

EURGBP - 0.8812
EURJPY - 128.01
EURUSD - 1.1269
 
expiated said:
GBPJPY turned bearish on Friday. GBPUSD has been headed south overall ever since November 11th.
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Though GBPPY is currently bearish, be prepared for a reversal north anywhere around or below 144.07. As for GBPUSD, it is already sitting on a support level established in the middle of August and reaffirmed at the end of October.
 
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