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Soros says gold "isn't safe"
- Thread starter tmarket
- Start date
More to the point, he is saying gold is not worth taking a long position in right now.Quote from olias:
so he's basically saying: Gold might go higher, but on the other hand, it could also go lower..
No logic behind that statement. There is nothing to suggest any recent correlation between stocks and gold will hold. In fact the correlation went from -0.7 in June '08 to +0.7 in April '10Quote from achilles28:
Think of it this way.
If Gold is a bubble, that means stocks are headed towards their '09 lows.
..
Quote from tmarket:
No logic behind that statement. There is nothing to suggest any recent correlation between stocks and gold will hold. In fact the correlation went from -0.7 in June '08 to +0.7 in April '10
Thanks for proving my point.
Gold held up incredibly well during a period of massive deleveraging and credit contraction.
Where do you suppose gold will go when the economy recovers? Down???
if the economy falters and people try to use gold to barter /trade what will it be worth, i doubt 1200 an, ounce,its not a currency,i just don't see the value,other than speculators taking it higher ,like they did with oil,it is used everywhere,gold isnt, it will be one of the best hoaxes ever pulled off, at some point in the future
Quote from ammo:
if the economy falters and people try to use gold to barter /trade what will it be worth, i doubt 1200 an, ounce,its not a currency,i just don't see the value,other than speculators taking it higher ,like they did with oil,it is used everywhere,gold isnt, it will be one of the best hoaxes ever pulled off, at some point in the future
True. But gold is a natural store of value. People always have, and always will, covet precious metals. I highly doubt that will change anytime soon.
It's true, commodities like oil and grain have more utility. But their value per pound/measure is very low making it extremely inconvenient to store, move and transfer wealth. Gold/Silver value per measure is very high, making it simple and convenient to store and transfer...
Quote from olias:
so he's basically saying: Gold might go higher, but on the other hand, it could also go lower
I'd like to hear the counterpoint to his assessment
He is saying it's going higher, but will be volatile and the bull market will end eventually like other bubbles. He is not saying it will go significantly lower, just that pullbacks and corrections will be common. Not exactly a daring prediction, but he did express a bullish view.
Quote from JuniorCTA:
This gold rally is coming to a end.
How do I know?
The barrage of nonsense, on CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX and just about every business news outlet, pushing gold.
It's the same feeling I got Pre-2008... when people I knew who were financial irresponsible, were getting loans for houses.
The same nonsense around internet stocks lasted from about 1997 to 2001. During that period the nasdaq soared multiples and then crashed over 50%. So, background bullish enthusiasm can co-exist with the final years of a speculative bubble - after all, an asset popular with the public can hardly rally massively after a multi-year bull run *without* there being a lot of speculation developing around it.
I agree we are starting to see signs of speculation, but I think it's in the early stages. When gold finally tops you will see public participation that will make the current drips and drabs look like nothing.
I agree with most of what GoC has written.
As a rule of thumb, an asset experiencing a blowoff top will make its fastest increase at the end of its move. Think of the Nasdaq and its constituent stocks in the period from October 1999 to March 2000. The Naz went from 2500 to 5000 and several individual stocks went up by over 100% or more during this period.
I'd also invite people who think that gold is in a bubble to consider that there is a possibility, even as low as 1%, that the US Govt and the Fed will continue to implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which results in hyperinflation. I'm not saying that it will happen, but rather that the possibility is greater than 1%.
Gold in Zimbabwe dollars went up by a huge amount in recent years, however just because it went up 1,000% a few years ago didn't mean that it was in a bubble. In fact it would have been a good idea to exchange one's Zimbabwe dollars for gold in years past.
As a rule of thumb, an asset experiencing a blowoff top will make its fastest increase at the end of its move. Think of the Nasdaq and its constituent stocks in the period from October 1999 to March 2000. The Naz went from 2500 to 5000 and several individual stocks went up by over 100% or more during this period.
I'd also invite people who think that gold is in a bubble to consider that there is a possibility, even as low as 1%, that the US Govt and the Fed will continue to implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which results in hyperinflation. I'm not saying that it will happen, but rather that the possibility is greater than 1%.
Gold in Zimbabwe dollars went up by a huge amount in recent years, however just because it went up 1,000% a few years ago didn't mean that it was in a bubble. In fact it would have been a good idea to exchange one's Zimbabwe dollars for gold in years past.
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
The same nonsense around internet stocks lasted from about 1997 to 2001. During that period the nasdaq soared multiples and then crashed over 50%. So, background bullish enthusiasm can co-exist with the final years of a speculative bubble - after all, an asset popular with the public can hardly rally massively after a multi-year bull run *without* there being a lot of speculation developing around it.
I agree we are starting to see signs of speculation, but I think it's in the early stages. When gold finally tops you will see public participation that will make the current drips and drabs look like nothing.
Quote from JuniorCTA:
This gold rally is coming to a end.
How do I know?
The barrage of nonsense, on CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX and just about every business news outlet, pushing gold.
It's the same feeling I got Pre-2008... when people I knew who were financial irresponsible, were getting loans for houses.
Just remember that CNBC and others were heavily pushing the internet boom and that went on for many years before it collapsed. In effect the crowd was very right for a long time before being very wrong.
Gold is strong, it's been trending for 10 years now and so it's a pure gamble to try to call a top right here.