Something very simplistic

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Originally posted by Gordon Gekko
a note to others: some are questioning why he is entering at predetermined times instead of when HE wants to enter a trade.
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The fact is though, I AM entering when I want to enter. It just happens that I want to enter at those times only, period. That's the system.

I don't miss any good or bad trades because I don't enter at other times - those trades don't exist with this system.

I do appreciate the kind words. I wasn't discouraged at all by those backtesting results. I'm happy with how things have gone over the past two days - I hope that continues. :)
 
Originally posted by Quah


The fact is though, I AM entering when I want to enter. It just happens that I want to enter at those times only, period. That's the system.

I don't miss any good or bad trades because I don't enter at other times - those trades don't exist with this system.

I do appreciate the kind words. I wasn't discouraged at all by those backtesting results. I'm happy with how things have gone over the past two days - I hope that continues. :)
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yes, you're right. the wording of what i meant was weak. :mad:
 
Just wanted to add...

IMO, a great trader isn't someone who can look at a chart or any of a zillion indicators and find good trades, etc. - unless that it their goal.

To me, a great trader is someone who is making money with the least amount of fanfair and work. The rules of the system may look absolutely stupid when compared against another system that is using Neural nets and running on a Cray. But that doesn't bother me one bit, as long as the system is giving me what I want out of it. A good trader is meeting his needs and goals by trading however he needs to.
 
Quah,

If you keep trading this, I will dig out my College Statistics book and tell you when your system becomes statistically significant (I'd have to know the odds and some other factors, but we could make some very good approximations for those).

I think the worst odds you can have are 50/50. If it was any worse, you could just do the opposite. If it was any better, you could just do more of the same (this doesn't take into account costs of doing business, though).

Hey, your first two days are extremely good. I am totally surprised.

I wonder if this system will product really bad losing days, though. We shall see. If it works, I will be very happy for you.
 
Originally posted by aphexcoil
Quah,

If you keep trading this, I will dig out my College Statistics book and tell you when your system becomes statistically significant (I'd have to know the odds and some other factors, but we could make some very good approximations for those).

I think the worst odds you can have are 50/50. If it was any worse, you could just do the opposite. If it was any better, you could just do more of the same (this doesn't take into account costs of doing business, though).

Hey, your first two days are extremely good. I am totally surprised.

I wonder if this system will product really bad losing days, though. We shall see. If it works, I will be very happy for you.
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I dont care if/when it becomes statistically significant. That isn't one of the goals I listed in my first post. Same with calculating the odds. Who cares?

Why are you so suprised that it's worked the past two days? Because you think that something so simple and uncomplicated can not work? Or because this system goes against many of the supposed "must" rules of trading - like let your winners run?

BTW - as fars as a really bad losing day - the system has a fixed possible amount of loss per day just as it has a fixed possible amount of profit. Let's say you don't reverse on a stop loss - and every trade gets stopped out - you will be down 13.75 points/contract at most (unless you get horrible fills in a fast market or something). At best, the system will be up 11 points/contract.
 
Well, I care when it becomes statistically significant. Because no matter how you slice the pie, a zero-sum game does have a level of statistics.

I will keep reading your journal. If you are net positive after 30 days, I think you are definately on to something.

However, I've played with simple systems that were great for a string of days and then BAM -- back to break-even or losses.

The only system that I have found to work (for me) is the one I'll be using shortly when I start my journal.

Good luck to you.
 
quah,

i believe you previously stated that you only use limit orders for this system. i understand how you'd have a set limit price for your target and stop, but when you enter your limit to enter the trade, what do you limit it do?

say your time point has come to make a trade. your signal says to go long and not short, you are going enter a long position at a limit of what price? what determines the limit price?

thank you
 
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko
quah,

say your time point has come to make a trade. your signal says to go long and not short, you are going enter a long position at a limit of what price? what determines the limit price?

thank you
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The limit price is whatever the open of the bar is at that specific time. I haven't had any troubles getting filled - a few times that the open price was the offer and I was going short I obviously didn't get an immediate fill. Most of the time though - interestingly - when I want to go long the bar opens at the offer and when I want to go short the bar opens at the bid. I'll keep track of that tomorrow - maybe that is a way to decide long/short :)

If the price moved away from the open price and didn't come back, say, in a minute or two, I'd cancel the order and just wait for the next entry.

I'll also add - sometimes you might get price improvement - like today, that happened once. I wanted to long at .75 and the offer moved to .50 before I could click my mouse. When that happens, I will still based my profit and stop-loss limit orders on the opening price of the bar, as if I filled at that in the first place.
 
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