Some way to find trend

[monoid]

@stephane:

When all you have seen are white swans in your life, you tend to think all swans are white. But there do exist black swans! Likewise, when all you know is to define trend by way of time-frames, then you think that is the only way to do it; otherwise, you would not have said cannot in:

You cannot define a thrend without knowing which timeframe we are talking of. [emphasis added; sp. not corrected]

or must in:

Therefore, you must defint which TF is your trading TF and which Tfs is important to define the trend. [emphasis added; sp. not corrected]

Food for thought:
(a) A trader uses constant volume bars to trade. How does that trader define trend? Time-frame does not make sense to her, does it?
(b) A trader uses PnF charts to trade. How does that trader define trend? Here too, Time-frame does not make sense to her, does it?

So, if I were you, I could come back with this:

A trend should be defined using two different parameters for the type of splitting algorithm used to generate a bar.
​

So, for a time based splitting of a bar, one could use a 1-hr and 5-mins as an example. For a volume based splitting of a bar, one could use 100 and 1000 as an example; similarly, for PnF one could use two different retrace values. I am sure there are many more splitting algorithms people use that I am not familiar.

However, there is one catch with the above definition. How does a trader who trades based not on artificial splitting mechanism (as described above -- one based on Time, Volume, Retracement, or others splitting of bars) but purely on prints fit into the above definition? That trader would still need a Trend to trade, hence has to define one, doesn't he? Unfortunately, I fall in this last category, yet I do define trend, in a way that makes sense to me, based on PA derived from prints (without any artificial splitting mechanism), to guide me in my trading. And, no, I am not a scalper.

To each his own.

All the best.

Regards,
Monoid.

 

[monoid]

What is a trend?

Trend is a definition, based on price action or a derivative of price action, that you create to align yourself with the market.

How do you know for certain it's a trend?

Since a trend is a definition, it is a tautology; hence, it is certain!

All the best.

Regards,
Monoid.

 

[murray t turtle]

[ partial quote="Scaleout.Scalper, post: 4086426, member: 480784"]Except ET is so full of amateurs the concept of multi-timeframe is unknown to them or considered a waste of time.

Now tell them how to determine which is the TF commanding the rest [/quote]
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Longer time frame is stronger time frame...............................................................................
Wisdom is profitable to direct

 

[stephane]

[ partial quote="Scaleout.Scalper, post: 4086426, member: 480784"]Except ET is so full of amateurs the concept of multi-timeframe is unknown to them or considered a waste of time.

Now tell them how to determine which is the TF commanding the rest

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Longer time frame is stronger time frame...............................................................................
Wisdom is profitable to direct[/quote]

Longer timeframe is stronger time frame, but a two candle consolidation on the monthly time frame is a 60 candles trend on the daily !
Choose a trading timeframe, keep it to define the trend, and check larger time frames to find points of support/resistance that can be used to trade break out or reversal on your trading TF.

 

[Sergio77]

trend = hindsight.

 

[Turveyd]

Less and less interested in the overall trend, I'm pretty much just trading MoMo on a m1 4sma envelope range.

I have a 24sma aswell, i try to trade with, any slower and its wrong for to long.

Fast strong markets, license to print money.

Slow markets no MoMo or trend, its BE requires a different method.

 

[murray t turtle]

%%%%%%%%%%%%
Longer time frame is stronger time frame...............................................................................
Wisdom is profitable to direct

Longer timeframe is stronger time frame, but a two candle consolidation on the monthly time frame is a 60 candles trend on the daily !
Choose a trading timeframe, keep it to define the trend, and check larger time frames to find points of support/resistance that can be used to trade break out or reversal on your trading TF.[/quote]
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I see your points; that's maybe why some use a smaller + quicker time frame.
IBD [Investors Business D aily] for example uses a 50 day moving average[NOT 60];
+ 200 dma.Not a prediction; wisdom is profitable to direct. Thanks

 

[expiated]

What is a trend? How do you know for certain it's a trend? I do not know, but sometimes some reference line can be helpful

When it comes to trend, like Aristarchus of Samos and Nicolaus Copernicus, I have a theory about how things work that is completely at odds with the accepted school of thought. It is based on ideas similar to those involved in numerical weather prediction, and by the end of trading on Friday, its basic graphical representation had taken on the configuration you see below.

The above setup began to make it possible for me to more or less avoid incurring significant losses as the week came to an end, and I’m hoping I will be satisfied enough with its results that I find myself continuing to make use of the same settings in the same manner without much modification heading into the future.

As with numerical weather prediction, there are intrinsic predictability limitations that lead to error growth with time, so I apply this approach exclusively to intraday trading. Simple moving averages, simple moving average envelopes, and box indicators similar to Nicolas Darvas’s trading ranges are used to simulate the equations; wave functions and representations; and grid point, spectral, and coordinate models used in numerical weather prediction.

The thick black line serves as the primary arbiter of market bias, with markets tending to be bullish when the candlesticks are trending above it, especially if the line is sloping upward—and markets tending to be bearish when the opposite is true.

The short-term trend is conveyed by the thin orange and black lines. Entry and exit levels are closely approximated by reversals in the color of the Heiken Ashi candlesticks.

It’s been a little over eight months since I first came to this forum to help me fuel my efforts to improve on a system that already worked, but highlighted only a very limited number of trades each day. Given the simplicity of the system describe above, I’m hoping the culmination of that effort is now within sight and that it will be completed at least a couple of months before my having been here a full year.

 

[expiated]

I’m hoping I will be satisfied enough with its results that I find myself continuing to make use of the same settings in the same manner without much modification heading into the future.

In the 16th chapter of Matthew, Yeshua took the Sadducees and Pharisees to task for not being able to interpret the signs of the times. And again, in the 12th chapter of Luke, the Messiah admonished a crowd for not knowing how to judge the times in which they were living.

Likewise, anyone trading foreign currency pairs without the ability to forecast what’s coming is almost guaranteed to meet with disappointment. I therefore made it my business to discover the Forex equivalent of a red sky, or a south wind, or clouds in the west—signs that would enable me to see beyond the horizon to know with some degree of certainty where price would most likely find itself at some point in the near future.

In doing so, I adopted a biblical approach to the task, intent on testing everything and holding fast to that which is good. This led me to reject the use of all indicators with the exception of moving averages and moving average envelopes, ultimately leading to a multiple simple moving average envelope (“MS. MAE”) approach to Forex trading.

However, though this system was successful, it did not result in the volume of trades that would enable me to grow a less than modest trading account into the kind of balance I would be needing in an acceptable amount of time.

I therefore began looking to enhance the system on Saturday, August 12, 2017, which led to what I am presently calling the “Numerical Price Prediction Forex Trading System” (NPP Trading).

The Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) Trading System

It is a system that approaches the use of technical analysis to make market forecasts in the same way meteorologists use computer models to forecast weather.

This means collecting precise, up-to-date, quantitative information about the current state of affairs at a given place and time, and interpreting the data to make accurate predictions—except instead of using air pressure/temperature, cloud location, wind direction/velocity, and humidity, I’m using trend lines, market structure, average price ranges, historical support/resistance levels, and repetitive price patterns—or more specifically, I'm using how they all interact and relate to one another.

As with numerical weather prediction, there are intrinsic predictability limitations that lead to error growth with time, so I apply this approach exclusively to intraday trading. Simple moving averages, simple moving average envelopes, and (possibly) box indicators similar to Nicolas Darvas’s trading ranges, are all used to simulate the equations, wave functions and representations, and grid point, spectral, and coordinate models used in numerical weather prediction, as represented by the
graphic I have posted above.

 

[expiated]

It’s taken me most of the last 24 hours to whittle the “Numerical Price Prediction Forex Trading Strategy” down to its successful essence, so that the last few trades have all been profitable…

…but here it is…