Quoting Oldtrader :"Depends on how far in the 60s you are"
I'll be 64 in November.
I have a feeling there are many senior guys on this board.
GC
I'll be 64 in November.
I have a feeling there are many senior guys on this board.
GC
Some observations on scalping Crude
- Thread starter gurucandidate
- Start date
There is a lot of negative talk but at these levels every time the market looks washed out one should nibble on the long side and if the 63.80 (July) is taken out we could have a nice up move.
I am trading more ER2 again these days.
GC
I am trading more ER2 again these days.
GC
As I mentioned before I seldom see a decisive move in Crude at the time the indices open because some of the traders are distracted. Still today there was a 25 pt move in July in 2 minutes around 9:30 ET.
The start of CL and NG options (and Gold and Silver options) on GLOBEX opens up a lot of possibilities. For one this opens up an arb market which leads to more liquidity. I intend to do some vertical spreads at first when I see the market at extremes.
Because the price structure from month to month in Crude is not linear like the metals there should be a lot of opportunities for putting on butterflies to take advantage of temporary price discrepancies and I am certain lot of people are going to spend time figuring out some low risk Black Swan event strategies.
GC
The start of CL and NG options (and Gold and Silver options) on GLOBEX opens up a lot of possibilities. For one this opens up an arb market which leads to more liquidity. I intend to do some vertical spreads at first when I see the market at extremes.
Because the price structure from month to month in Crude is not linear like the metals there should be a lot of opportunities for putting on butterflies to take advantage of temporary price discrepancies and I am certain lot of people are going to spend time figuring out some low risk Black Swan event strategies.
GC
I've been trading more CL again.
I have noticed that when I follow both CL and ER2 I loose concentration, which leads to sloppy trading.
Some days I've been doing hundreds of lots with not much to show for(makes the people at IB happy though).
One of the things I've been practicing is to hang on to trades a little longer if I happen to be in with the flow. This is working. I am still getting out for two to four points when I fade the end of a move. Another thing which I am doing and it is good for the bottom line is that if I happen to be scaling a bit I take it back even at a loss if it does not feel right. This way I'll less likely get caught.
Today was interesting. As soon as the Aug. went to premium over Sep. the market topped. Some one must have thought it was a low risk deal to sell the spread.
I wonder what the dropping RB at the height of driving season means for the market. Looks like at this price level we could have big swings either way.
Regards,
GC
I have noticed that when I follow both CL and ER2 I loose concentration, which leads to sloppy trading.
Some days I've been doing hundreds of lots with not much to show for(makes the people at IB happy though).
One of the things I've been practicing is to hang on to trades a little longer if I happen to be in with the flow. This is working. I am still getting out for two to four points when I fade the end of a move. Another thing which I am doing and it is good for the bottom line is that if I happen to be scaling a bit I take it back even at a loss if it does not feel right. This way I'll less likely get caught.
Today was interesting. As soon as the Aug. went to premium over Sep. the market topped. Some one must have thought it was a low risk deal to sell the spread.
I wonder what the dropping RB at the height of driving season means for the market. Looks like at this price level we could have big swings either way.
Regards,
GC
Sometimes size matters....
This morning between 4:00EST and 5:15EST CLU07 was tumbling down to 73.91. In some short covering it came up to 74.10 or so.
When it eased down to 05 I saw a bid line on the TS DOM for 416 lots at even. For one hour the price has bounced off this in a 10 pt range without bigger orders on either side.
I actually sold at 09 and took it back at 05 but after a while realizing that the downward momentum was at least temporarily halted I refrained from trading the short side and definitely was not interested in the long side because if a big order like that disappears one would have a trapdoor situation.
Finally an hour and a half later at 6:49 action picked up and CL started moving up to 74.18. Since the n it has broken down through 74 but I was not at the screen to see if the big order was pulled or filled.
I don't normally watch the DOM. Momentum and volume/OBV patterns are more important to me. In this case it made me cautious which in some cases is good in some others it's not.
400+ order line in pre-market is significant and as the saying goes "where elephants battle the grass gets trampled" so I heeded that.
If I did not see the DOM I could only play this from the short side this morning because there was nothing in the volume or other indicators to show otherwise.
Regards,
GC
This morning between 4:00EST and 5:15EST CLU07 was tumbling down to 73.91. In some short covering it came up to 74.10 or so.
When it eased down to 05 I saw a bid line on the TS DOM for 416 lots at even. For one hour the price has bounced off this in a 10 pt range without bigger orders on either side.
I actually sold at 09 and took it back at 05 but after a while realizing that the downward momentum was at least temporarily halted I refrained from trading the short side and definitely was not interested in the long side because if a big order like that disappears one would have a trapdoor situation.
Finally an hour and a half later at 6:49 action picked up and CL started moving up to 74.18. Since the n it has broken down through 74 but I was not at the screen to see if the big order was pulled or filled.
I don't normally watch the DOM. Momentum and volume/OBV patterns are more important to me. In this case it made me cautious which in some cases is good in some others it's not.
400+ order line in pre-market is significant and as the saying goes "where elephants battle the grass gets trampled" so I heeded that.
If I did not see the DOM I could only play this from the short side this morning because there was nothing in the volume or other indicators to show otherwise.
Regards,
GC
Early this morning CL was amazing. By the opening of the day session September zigzagged at least $5000.
Who is pushing oil around between midnight and 9am ET?
Because volume is much less - in spite of the good swings- the early hours are more of a swing trader's market then scalper's but I am consistently doing better in premarket then in the day session, at least in terms of win/loss ratio and per lot profit, and I think I know why, because in the morning I am not following the other markets, my attention is undivided.
They were some classic patterns after pit trading opened, it was clear that the market was ramping up to take out last weeks highs. They were several attempts that failed but it finally did it.
I invariably trade breakouts like this from the opposite side. I had an order five points over the old highs, they ran it, got filled and there was a quick retracement and the opportunity to cash in 7 points in seconds, which I took.
Fading a breakout is one of the staple techniques in the book.
Regards,
GC
Who is pushing oil around between midnight and 9am ET?
Because volume is much less - in spite of the good swings- the early hours are more of a swing trader's market then scalper's but I am consistently doing better in premarket then in the day session, at least in terms of win/loss ratio and per lot profit, and I think I know why, because in the morning I am not following the other markets, my attention is undivided.
They were some classic patterns after pit trading opened, it was clear that the market was ramping up to take out last weeks highs. They were several attempts that failed but it finally did it.
I invariably trade breakouts like this from the opposite side. I had an order five points over the old highs, they ran it, got filled and there was a quick retracement and the opportunity to cash in 7 points in seconds, which I took.
Fading a breakout is one of the staple techniques in the book.
Regards,
GC
This morning was a repeat of yesterday, not the swings but how CL ramped up to take out yesterdays high.
Sold 5 points over the old high and all of a sudden a large order appeared instead of vacuum. 350 + lots were wanted 6 points below the high and it would not budge.
Enough to scare a short so I covered ahead of it but as time passed sellers were chipping away at it and I sold into it also. It got filled and covered lower.
The high was taken out some 20 min later in the same fashion but I was out jogging and I missed it. Then there was one more new high for the morning which backfilled also but my sell order was a bit high and I did not participate in it.
After this a similar situation (2 or 3 interim highs) happened in ER2 which I was able to take advantage of.
CL is less likely to streak then ER2 so I am a bit more confident trading it.
Because of increased volatility I am stretching my usual minimum target from 3-4 points to 5.
GC
Sold 5 points over the old high and all of a sudden a large order appeared instead of vacuum. 350 + lots were wanted 6 points below the high and it would not budge.
Enough to scare a short so I covered ahead of it but as time passed sellers were chipping away at it and I sold into it also. It got filled and covered lower.
The high was taken out some 20 min later in the same fashion but I was out jogging and I missed it. Then there was one more new high for the morning which backfilled also but my sell order was a bit high and I did not participate in it.
After this a similar situation (2 or 3 interim highs) happened in ER2 which I was able to take advantage of.
CL is less likely to streak then ER2 so I am a bit more confident trading it.
Because of increased volatility I am stretching my usual minimum target from 3-4 points to 5.
GC
This morning many CL traders are mesmerized by action in ER2 which has been truly fantastic so there have not been that much action this morning so far. These markets are a traders dream.
Waiting for the inventory report.
GC
Waiting for the inventory report.
GC
Sorry but I have no clue about the reasons for the larger moves in the market. The people on the Natty Gas thread seem to have a thorough understanding of the fundamentals.
I am a technical trader specializing reading momentum. I did notice however that nice ascending triangle on the 60 minute and 120 minute charts which would make me an uneasy long if I was a position trader.
Today I stopped trading after 10:30 because I was having a good session not so much in oil but in ER2. Since I am going away for 10 days I wanted to leave on a high note
.
There was a burst of buying in CL good for 35 pts 5 minutes before the report. I sold into it and took it back for a few points. After the report there was another burst of buying too. Same, sold and covered. I also faded the ER2 opening rally and did well.
At some point Sep CL was 77.77 and ER2 was 777.70 same contract value!
I was thinking of doing some kind of a spread and caught myself thinking: what an idiot, now you are going to give away a nice days pay. I did two silly trades after that which were losers and stopped myself, missing all the action since.
Doing frivolous trades after a good run is OK as long as one keeps it in proportion. Its like basketball players throwing the ball into the net with their arm behind their back. For me it is usually a reminder to quit before I do more damage to myself.
Incidentally I have had pretty good luck trading the Inventory Report over time.
I am always flat at 10:30 and don't place an order until I see a swing and place an order further from it. I usually get filed and it always snaps back and usually there is a good size tradable counter swing and eventually it stabilizes.
I am a technical trader specializing reading momentum. I did notice however that nice ascending triangle on the 60 minute and 120 minute charts which would make me an uneasy long if I was a position trader.
Today I stopped trading after 10:30 because I was having a good session not so much in oil but in ER2. Since I am going away for 10 days I wanted to leave on a high note
.There was a burst of buying in CL good for 35 pts 5 minutes before the report. I sold into it and took it back for a few points. After the report there was another burst of buying too. Same, sold and covered. I also faded the ER2 opening rally and did well.
At some point Sep CL was 77.77 and ER2 was 777.70 same contract value!
I was thinking of doing some kind of a spread and caught myself thinking: what an idiot, now you are going to give away a nice days pay. I did two silly trades after that which were losers and stopped myself, missing all the action since.
Doing frivolous trades after a good run is OK as long as one keeps it in proportion. Its like basketball players throwing the ball into the net with their arm behind their back. For me it is usually a reminder to quit before I do more damage to myself.
Incidentally I have had pretty good luck trading the Inventory Report over time.
I am always flat at 10:30 and don't place an order until I see a swing and place an order further from it. I usually get filed and it always snaps back and usually there is a good size tradable counter swing and eventually it stabilizes.