Some observations on scalping Crude

60.60 looks like good support for oil this week. Going Long @ 62.41 target around 63.90. Oil has been pretty volatile in the past week , which kept me away from the desk. Hopefully it will resume a nice up or down trend with the July contract. Have a great day guys :)


www.liofmc.blogspot.com
 
lolo24ca,

Thanks for posting your ideas.
Your trade triggered and very likely it will reach the relatively close target.

Since I am scalping I don't look at daily charts every day but I did tonight and without considering the economics behind it it looks like it is poised for a drop.

After the recent down move the price has been moving up slowly and on lessening volume in a seasonally strong time frame. This was the chance for the bulls to push prices higher and so far it did not happen. The bears (producers?) don't seem to be scared and they are not in a hurry to cover.
Within a day or two - unless something dramatic happens in the background - the momentum will swing the other way which will pressure prices lower.
I see the same setup in the USO and OIL ETF's.

The next few days could be interesting since on one hand we have a bearish looking chart and the cash Crude seasonal plot at Seasonalcharts.com is showing weakness for a couple of weeks and on the other hand we are entering the storm season.

(I have not mentioned specific price levels because I am usually focusing on the dynamic.)

Regards,

GC
 
Quote from gurucandidate:

CL was not mean reverting yesterday :) but watching the June/July spread kept me out of major trouble.

GC
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what exactly do you look for in the spread? the trend? are you looking at spread charts or just quotes?
 
Quote from TGM:

what exactly do you look for in the spread? the trend? are you looking at spread charts or just quotes?
More...

As a scalper I keep track of momentum rather then key numbers(looking at too many numbers and deciphering their relationships numbs me) so, to keep it simple I have the first 4 month of CL overlayed in a combined line chart under a one minute bar chart in TS. This is not my setup for scalping but I glance at this every so often to see if the rise and fall of the spreads is in line with the move of the market.

On Thursday for example the spreads were improving along with the market while on some days they seem to be less directional.

GC
 
Quote from lolo24ca:

60.60 looks like good support for oil this week. Going Long @ 62.41 target around 63.90. Oil has been pretty volatile in the past week , which kept me away from the desk. Hopefully it will resume a nice up or down trend with the July contract. Have a great day guys :)


www.liofmc.blogspot.com
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Another good call. Congrats.

OldTrader
 
Hey Oldtrader

How are you !! how the market treating you ? At this point i don't know what to do with the CLN7. Once again resistance @ $67.00. I'm very tempted to short, but I'll stay on the side for now!! Good trading

cheers :)


www.liofmc.blogspot.com
 
Quote from Surdo:

Is that a Triple Top>>>>>>>>>or a Double Bottom on the daily?
I generally do not trade this pig short.

el surdo
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It's just a line connecting previous resistance and support levels...
 
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