So I just bailed out of this market

themickey said:
Which leads to another thing, going flat in the market because 'you think this is a good idea' is one thing.
But going long again, often there is no compelling reason (no strong buy signal) once the upmove gets underway.
Those flat traders then say when it's too late, "Damn, missed the boat, I'll await a pullback". But it never comes.

My observation over many years, the best bull markets are those which rise on fear, because they just keep on going up.
Exhuberance is the danger signal, not fear.
More...

Which is why, for Indices, if trading the Indices directionally as an outright? I like a repeatable process, that is either "Long" or "Long-Flat".

To see what I mean? Look at the Long-Flat process of the Non-Correlated model. It has a repeatable reason to get out, a repeatable reason to get back in. And you can run history on it, back to like ... 1961, to see how it would have worked out for you.

When you do that? It gives you confidence in doing it into the unknown future.

:D
 
themickey said:
.
More...
And that's not to say that the Long-Flat process is perfect, in that model.

It's not. It's going to get chopped up from time to time. But individual 'whipsaws' in a month here and there ... are not indicative of a process that doesn't return a positive expectancy over the long-haul.

And seeing that positive expectancy over the long-haul?

That's what gives you the confidence to use it, as well as the understanding of the Drawdowns you will typically see, so you don't get rattled when they do happen.
 
noddyboy said:
If you are right that we need to reach 2000 levels, that would be 3x to the SPX over the next 4 years?
More...

2000 represented the heights of a speculative mania. We may see something similar again in our lifetimes, we may not. Note here that the prompt implosion of overvalued profitless IPOs (in WeWork's case, before they even went public) is NOT a bear point, because it shows that public market investors remain broadly cautious and skeptical, definitely not throwing caution to the wind - the extreme headline valuations of these unicorns were only briefly if ever tested in the public markets, it's mostly a mark-to-bullshit private valuation VC circle-jerk.

My point is just that you can't claim equities as a whole are in a bubble or overvalued, nor are they likely to enter a sustained bear market. Fund managers aren't going to wake up tomorrow and dump equities yielding 5% to buy bonds yielding 2%, unless forward earnings estimates collapse or some kind of major shock (like a USA-China shooting war) panics the market.
 
vanzandt said:
I thought those were your "pro boys".... ?
More...

I have explained this point before...

the 'professionals' is a very wide category - typical buy side mutual fund managers are NOT my pro boys.... these people are educated in the conventional way and think very similarly to retail... MY pro boys are e.g. the trading arm of GS... who truly knows how to manipulate.

retail is universally dumb money, hence my favorite indicator is based on retail sentiment... where as if you look at professional sentiment like CoT of 'big speculators' you get confused..
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Long and strong the stock market. I am buying more and more and more. only one way the market can go, and that is up. If it go down, I buy more and more and more.
Now, that you have exited. When will you get back in.[/QUOTE
%%
Mostly right, SPY, QQQ/ +related;
except TSLA, was STILL down, yesterdays close, YTD:D:D, :cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:
More...
 
d08 said:
I was very bearish many times in the past 10 years, very bearish for this summer. At this point I give up, I have no idea what the market is doing long-term. I've also stopped thinking the market is mostly rational, I figure it's mostly corrupt and insider-driven.
More...
d08,

EXACTLY, long term investing, I don't predict, I just keep on buying.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top