So I just bailed out of this market

destriero said:
The Sep 2000 equity high took 7 years to eclipse... in 2007.

Anyone recall what happened in 2007?

Market drops 55%. Over 16 months.

Market takes over 4 years to eclipse 2007 high.

Nearly 13 years before before 1560 eclipsed.
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And like 5 years after that we are double that local high.
 
I was very bearish many times in the past 10 years, very bearish for this summer. At this point I give up, I have no idea what the market is doing long-term. I've also stopped thinking the market is mostly rational, I figure it's mostly corrupt and insider-driven.
 
kmiklas said:
Waiting for the dip... a big profit-taking event. Then I’m going to buy and ride the election wave.
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if dip waiting, the very definition of market timing, has any positive expectancy, all them hot shot fund managers with Wharton degrees and army of programmers would have defeated the indexes already...

again their success rate is 3% vs. the SPY and 0.1% vs. the QQQ...

so...
 
RRY16 said:
I thought you had Surf on ignore.
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Lol. He was a perma-bear at 2100... I'd hate to think how much he's lost fighting this bull.
Ya know I never understood why you guys hated him so much. Granted I wasn't around then, but for the time he was here when I was, he didn't seem any more off the wall than any of the other cast of characters that frequent this place. Mav74 liked him, didn't Mav and a bunch of folks go to his soiree at Mar-a-Largo?
The guy snagged his wife here. She was good looking too.... and half his age right? Hell he must have done something right.
 
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orbit23 said:
I was thinking exactly the same thing. Only a few weeks ago everyone was calling for recession prior to the breakout, the fear was high. And that was great confluence for longs. Everyone was calling tops too, now sentiment seems to be slowly shifting - which you can see on this thread too.

Looking at the apple chart, shit is moving way too fast. The volatility looks like it could kick in at any time. I agree with you. It's time to bail here. The risk is just too high.
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The data I look at indicates no alarm yet.
What is wrong with though for example applying a stop loss to your whole system?
No stop, then continue.
 
It's a mystery to me why so many claim the market is overvalued, etc. SPX forward earnings yield is around 5% while the 30-year is yielding two and a quarter. Compare to 2000 when the figures were 3.5% and 6% (so yes you could get nearly double the yield from risk-free treasuries). That's not remotely a speculative bubble, but pretty much fair value.

Yes, those figures will get blown out of the water if inflation breaks out (forcing the Fed to hike) or if corporate earnings plunge. So if you're bearish, you need to make a clear case for why one or both of those will happen soon.
 
Specterx said:
It's a mystery to me why so many claim the market is overvalued, etc. SPX forward earnings yield is around 5% while the 30-year is yielding two and a quarter. Compare to 2000 when the figures were 3.5% and 6% (so yes you could get nearly double the yield from risk-free treasuries). That's not remotely a speculative bubble, but pretty much fair value.

Yes, those figures will get blown out of the water if inflation breaks out (forcing the Fed to hike) or if corporate earnings plunge. So if you're bearish, you need to make a clear case for why one or both of those will happen soon.
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If you are right that we need to reach 2000 levels, that would be 3x to the SPX over the next 4 years?
 
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