So how deep the recession will be?

[themickey]

Five people have died in Australia.

A 78-year-old man from West Australia was a passenger on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship. He died on 1 March 2020.

A 95-year-old female resident of the BaptistCare Dorothy Henderson Lodge aged care facility in Sydney, NSW, died on 3 March 2020.

An 82-year-old man who was also a resident at the aged care facility in NSW died on 8 March 2020.

A 77-year-old woman from the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, died 13 March 2020. She was in NSW at the time.

A 94-year-old woman who was also a resident at the aged care facility in NSW died on 14 March 2020.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Five people have died in Australia.

A 78-year-old man from West Australia was a passenger on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship. He died on 1 March 2020.

A 95-year-old female resident of the BaptistCare Dorothy Henderson Lodge aged care facility in Sydney, NSW, died on 3 March 2020.

An 82-year-old man who was also a resident at the aged care facility in NSW died on 8 March 2020.

A 77-year-old woman from the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, died 13 March 2020. She was in NSW at the time.

A 94-year-old woman who was also a resident at the aged care facility in NSW died on 14 March 2020.

This virus was created by a millennial who was tired of old people owning everything. Let's see how much they can take with them. The Egyptian pharohs were fooled. Can't take it with you.

 

[tommcginnis]

Technically, I'm not convinced we'll go far enough to *have* a "recession" -- but for a single quarter, I think a drop of 11%-25% is easy.

 

[Real Money]

The boomers are the ones who are really scared. This is their worst nightmare. The timing could not be worse. Interesting that they make nearly all gov decisions....

A few potential outcomes....

Ultimately, the real risk is deflation. Deflation is the US worst nightmare.

Equity sell off continues for 3-6 months.
Corporate layoffs, paycuts, furloughs, business closures
Mass mortgage defaults, RE valuations crater, commercial real-estate implodes
Mass quarantine and lockdown
Total collapse in high yield debt markets (downgrades, fire-sale, bankruptcy)
Moves to nationalize industries
Eurozone collapses
Virus spread globally

Currency devaluation (this is the one I'm worried about)

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

The boomers are the ones who are really scared. This is their worst nightmare. The timing could not be worse. Interesting that they make nearly all gov decisions....

A few potential outcomes....

Ultimately, the real risk is deflation. Deflation is the US worst nightmare.

Equity sell off continues for 3-6 months.
Corporate layoffs, paycuts, furloughs, business closures
Mass mortgage defaults, RE valuations crater, commercial real-estate implodes
Mass quarantine and lockdown
Total collapse in high yield debt markets (downgrades, fire-sale, bankruptcy)
Moves to nationalize industries
Eurozone collapses
Virus spread globally

Currency devaluation (this is the one I'm worried about)

This is my dream come true (aside from currency collapse don't want that)

 

[Cuddles]

Technically, I'm not convinced we'll go far enough to *have* a "recession" -- but for a single quarter, I think a drop of 11%-25% is easy.

except walmart, walmart will be a winner

 

[Real Money]

This is my dream come true (aside from currency collapse don't want that)

I agree. The bubble economy is the bane of millenials and gen-Z, hell even gen-X. If it collapses they will actually be much better off. Of course, the boomers and gov would lose.

Read this story of what happened in Japan. It is earily similar to what is happening here....

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I agree. The bubble economy is the bane of millenials and gen-Z, hell even gen-X. If it collapses they will actually be much better off. Of course, the boomers and gov would lose.

Read this story of what happened in Japan. It is earily similar to what is happening here....

View attachment 222181

I think the difference with Japan and USA is that USA has immigration as a core factor in growth. Immigrants have built some of the huge tech companies, for example. But Japan is homogeneous, more or less. So if the bubble pops and growth slows, you can expect quality immigration to be increased.

 

[dozu888]

I been saying - people referring to japan that is low resolution thinking.

jap aint reserve currency.... when crisis hit they can't print otherwise the currency collapses.... it did collapse but it could collapse far worse.

what do we have here... even if it's a US-only crisis we can print out of it because we are reserve currency... and we did in 2008.... the rest of the world foot the bill more than we did.

not to mention this time it's a global coordinated print.... and it's already in motion.

why are people so blind.

plus, the Shanghai index already show how deep it is.. from the 1/22 high it wasn't even fcking 10% lol.... here we basically have China 2.0 here with Italy being Wuhan 2.0 and the other countries like the other China provinces.

as of Friday their close them only down 5% from the 1/22 high... and that is before the US rally.. by the time them open on Monday them be within stone throw of full recover... people are so blind. yeah you can argue that the Shanghai recovery is all PBOC print, but isn't that what we are getting now, from the Fed and the other CBs?

 

[ElCubano]

Nobody has a clue what the impact will be. The insane overreaction is making it worse. The only people that really need to worry are the elderly and those in poor health.

I agree. Maybe we should quarantine those who are at risk and let everyone else go about their business, 80% of cases are mild that increases the healthier you are. You catch it you roll with the punches. People die everyday stepping outside and even inside their homes for a myriad of reasons.