So how deep the recession will be?

[kashirin]

I heard there will be some improvement in q1 because of hoarding but q2 must be a disaster

First I heard 0.1% hit to GDP then 1-2% and no recession, then mild recession. Then deep but short.

but some q2 estimates go to -25% and some say it could be 50%. which with mass quarantines looks possible.

Mohammed El-Erian said it might be 75-90% hit to revenues. Not sure if it directly translates into GDP

In my opinion it will be somewhere above 10%

And given china experience it's definitely not V recovery. At best U

I believe in q4 2008 it was -8%. Stocks were halved

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

The problem you have here is two-fold:

1. Fed only looks after the big guys
2. The little guys are going to get hit hard and fast

I'm watching the slowdown materialize here. Things that we have already paid for (school/etc) getting cancelled because, well, they already have the money and no refund for two weeks for act of god.

But... No one is going anywhere. Was near town today, walking the dog and NO ONE IS OUT. Stores are empty, sidewalks are empty.

This is going to cascade into mortgage payments, bill payments, credit cards, etc if the news flow on the virus gets worse.

Fortunately, the Fed is busy buying commercial bonds to reduce the spread. That will help the little guys.

So there is a non-zero chance of a huge, cascading slowdown and the Fed is already busy making sure the big guys are liquid, presumably so they can profit when the little guys get hit.

 

[ironchef]

But... No one is going anywhere. Was near town today, walking the dog and NO ONE IS OUT. Stores are empty, sidewalks are empty.

Have you tried to shop at Costco or Walmart or Target lately? The lines wrapped around the blocks and spilled out to the roadway.

 

[CET]

Nobody has a clue what the impact will be. The insane overreaction is making it worse. The only people that really need to worry are the elderly and those in poor health.

 

[themickey]

......But... No one is going anywhere. Was near town today, walking the dog and NO ONE IS OUT. Stores are empty, sidewalks are empty......

Looking in the wrong place that's why, the mob have all gone bush, basking in fresh air outdoors in the sun swapping yarns.

 

[S2007S]

The overreacting is insane. Just proves that humans aren't ready for anything....the real pandemic is the actual people worrying about the pandemic, that's the pandemic we are having. Everyone is buying everything like they will be locked away for months and years. I went to the store just to muse and couldn't believe the panic. Traffic jams in and out of the markets, long lines, people buying cases of drinks, pasta aisles empty, rice and meat sections cleared out...its completely baffling what is going on. I'm reading that grocers are now limiting the amount of products you can buy and some are closing earlier so they can restock goods. They are urging shoppers not to hoard, but I think that's a little to late to even mention. Should be truly amusing to see how this unfolds.

 

[S2007S]

Are they going to push back the tax due date? I'm thinking they will since everyone is out buying toilet paper, rice and pasta and have no time to focus on tax time they will probably extend it to end of may or possibly june .

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Have you tried to shop at Costco or Walmart or Target lately? The lines wrapped around the blocks and spilled out to the roadway.

Yes the population here isn't that big so the Walmart wasn't that overrun. Could just be the population density is too low so if three people stay home it looks like the apocalypse to me.

Point still stands though, there is a small chance this gets out of control.

 

[themickey]

Yes the population here isn't that big so the Walmart wasn't that overrun. Could just be the population density is too low so if three people stay home it looks like the apocalypse to me.

Point still stands though, there is a small chance this gets out of control.

What's out of control is the human mob who've stampeded the supermarket and stripped shelves bare, like an African locust swarm who drank a can of RedBull each.
The region I live in has a population of 2 million, and we have 20 people with corinavirus, 2 cases were transmitted locally, the rest are blow ins from overseas - 3rd world countries.
Supermarkets look like empty aircraft hangars at the end of a day.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

What's out of control is the human mob who've stampeded the supermarket and stripped shelves bare, like an African locust swarm who drank a can of RedBull each.
The region I live in has a population of 2 million, and we have 20 people with corinavirus, 2 cases were transmitted locally, the rest are blow ins from overseas - 3rd world countries.
Supermarkets look like empty aircraft hangars.

So buy supermarket and amazon stocks. That's my takeaway. Cramer had been shitting on Walmart so I guess he's accumulating.

As far as I know there are no cases here we are too spread out. But human stupidity knows no bounds and the danger we have is a sharp cascade. Everything is already shut down here for two more weeks which is the right thing to do to stop the spread so as long as it doesn't go beyond that we should be ok. But if for some reason it goes beyond that, like reinfection then I'm sorry but the old people are gonna have to die.