so do we get a cut?

[Ivanovich]

Quote from dhpar:

let's revive this.

after today the question seems to be: "Is Fed going to cut into all time high equity markets?"

that would be so funny!

So far, Helicopter Ben has been anything but. So we'll see, but he's played it cool thus far.

Personally, I think the market is on crack and just praying for a cut when there's no chance in hell. But what do I know?

 

[dhpar]

agree with you.

one does not need to be sherlock holmes to understand that something is seriously wrong here...either it is Fed communication, focus, amount of liquidity or whatever else.

 

[number22]

I voted no change; assume we are talking about fed fund rate.

but there is possibilities that fed may cut discounted rate again, 25bp; or perhaps another 50bp.

 

[dhpar]

yes - of course. fed fund rate that is.

 

[dhpar]

ok - i am giving up here. I voted for not cut - after today i see it is going to be 25bps at least almost certain.

 

[thecalip]

The biggest problem here is inflation, not saving Wall Street. The government can lie all they want about inflation, and we all know it's pretty damn high.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Not one single compelling reason for a fed rate cut. Lots of potential for one in the future should conditions warrant but we anot there yet. A revision down in jobs is not enough to bring out the alarms and panic for a rate cut. As of last beige book, economy has shown modest growth overall and job market has shown flat to modest growth in various sectors. Housing market has problems but the sector has overbuilt its supply and that needs to get flushed out.

Just because the market is down a little does not mean the FED will cut rates and any talk linking the two is missing the big picture. There needs to be consistent signs of slowing to negative growth and a trend of job reduction, not just a few months sie job numbers are volatile.

The Fed should simply note the weakness creeping in and that they will continue to monitor conditions to see if the economy weathers the storm and watch inflation. Cutting rates now would send a signal that the fed is panicked or easily swayed by long stock holders who want the cut for a rally. Look where the indexes are compared to March lows of this year and July lows last year. Still up a lot and the fed is nto going to act to keep a potentially overbought market propped up.

Just my opinion but I see no rush to hit the panic button and start cutting rates.

 

[daddyeaux]

the banks are screaming at poor Benny Boy.....

no cut and the Dow goes -500...

ex food and ex energy and ex capital goods and ex taxes and ex imports....inflation is 0.000001%

dont worry be happy

 

[trefoil]

Quote from optioncoach:

... A revision down in jobs is not enough to bring out the alarms and panic for a rate cut. As of last beige book, economy has shown modest growth overall and job market has shown flat to modest growth in various sectors...

Poole, along with yourself and the others, should do yourselves a favor and actually look at the data, rather than read some headlines.
Attached is four graphs. The top two are from the household survey, the bottom two are from the establishment survey. All of them show the same picture.
If employment was a stock, you'd be shorting it. The trend is clear.

 

[Madison]

Quote from trefoil:

but over here the only effect is to actually cause inflation, by slowing down the economy, which hits productivity, which lowers the potential GDP, thereby causing more inflation than would otherwise be the case. Eco 101 stuff.