so do we get a cut?

[daddyeaux]

Quote from trefoil:

Poole, along with yourself and the others, should do yourselves a favor and actually look at the data, rather than read some headlines.
Attached is four graphs. The top two are from the household survey, the bottom two are from the establishment survey. All of them show the same picture.
If employment was a stock, you'd be shorting it. The trend is clear.

you are correct, but the Dollar is on the 30th floor and forex traders are yelling "jump"

 

[Anekdoten]

I voted "no change".

In fact, I look at the stock market and everything looks pretty damn healthy, we can't be making all time highs every damn month you know.

Anek

 

[dhpar]

Quote from optioncoach:

Not one single compelling reason for a fed rate cut. Lots of potential for one in the future should conditions warrant but we anot there yet. A revision down in jobs is not enough to bring out the alarms and panic for a rate cut. As of last beige book, economy has shown modest growth overall and job market has shown flat to modest growth in various sectors. Housing market has problems but the sector has overbuilt its supply and that needs to get flushed out.

Just because the market is down a little does not mean the FED will cut rates and any talk linking the two is missing the big picture. There needs to be consistent signs of slowing to negative growth and a trend of job reduction, not just a few months sie job numbers are volatile.

The Fed should simply note the weakness creeping in and that they will continue to monitor conditions to see if the economy weathers the storm and watch inflation. Cutting rates now would send a signal that the fed is panicked or easily swayed by long stock holders who want the cut for a rally. Look where the indexes are compared to March lows of this year and July lows last year. Still up a lot and the fed is nto going to act to keep a potentially overbought market propped up.

Just my opinion but I see no rush to hit the panic button and start cutting rates.

I am completely on the same page. They shold not cut - but they will. I listened to all the speeches yesterday and especially Mishkin's was exceptionally soft.

 

[daddyeaux]

geez

the dollar is getting pounded to dust as the band plays on.....

oil to 100

gold to a 1000

wheat to 10

 

[dhpar]

very interesting speech from Ben today...

 

[Ivanovich]

Yes it was. I sure as hell don't know if there's going to be a cut or not. I know what the futures say, but that's the market speaking. Doesn't mean it's what will happen.

I don't think the Fed should cut, but what I think is irrelevant. It sure sounded, however, that the Fed speakers this week, and Bernanke today also don't think they should cut. They keep saying the Fed rate is not designed to correct market imbalances.

What it sounds like to me is they're moving away from the "Greenspan Put". And the market is used to the put.

Therein is where I think the divergence is.

 

[myminitrading]

Quote from daddyeaux:

geez

the dollar is getting pounded to dust as the band plays on.....

oil to 100

gold to a 1000

wheat to 10

There is no inflation the government says so, listen to your government and do as your told. Bernake all ready said high oil has not caused recession, lets try $100.00 oil and see what happens, screw the consumer.

 

[Ivanovich]

Mini,

Instead of just spewing sarcastic hate-filled rabble, offer an intelligent opinion on what you think is going to happen. I, for one, would be interested in hearing what you think if you could just turn off the same-old.

 

[dhpar]

Quote from Ivanovich:

Yes it was. I sure as hell don't know if there's going to be a cut or not. I know what the futures say, but that's the market speaking. Doesn't mean it's what will happen.

I don't think the Fed should cut, but what I think is irrelevant. It sure sounded, however, that the Fed speakers this week, and Bernanke today also don't think they should cut. They keep saying the Fed rate is not designed to correct market imbalances.

What it sounds like to me is they're moving away from the "Greenspan Put". And the market is used to the put.

Therein is where I think the divergence is.

i don't know - i think they will cut based on the speeches this week. in fact the speech today did not seem to suggest much concern about weak dollar - quite the contrary. Mishkin speech was almost like "if we don't cut by 50 we all die", Yellen was typical - she is dove and would not do the last few hikes if she did not have to go with the flow, Fisher may dissent etc.
of course I am a firm believer that they should not cut. My reasons are in many threads from the past week - I need to go - siren tells me that oil is 78+ typical

 

[myminitrading]

Quote from Ivanovich:

Mini,

Instead of just spewing sarcastic hate-filled rabble, offer an intelligent opinion on what you think is going to happen. I, for one, would be interested in hearing what you think if you could just turn off the same-old.

Buy cutting they keep the buyers on the side lines, buyers will wait for more cuts before buying a house or any large ticket item.

So it just creates a slower economy, because everyone puts off that big purchase.

All the fed is doing is helping investment banks with lower rates, banks won't pass that rate cut on to the consumer, they will keep it for themselves.

Now just think of how much big ticket buying would occur if the fed did not cut, and signaled a wait and see approach.

Buyers would go ahead and commit knowing that rates may not go lower.

Its' just common since something you won't here on CNBC.