Smart Money's Swing Trades Thru T.A.

Smart Money · Jul 6, 2010

Quote from LEAPup:

Yet another intraday reversal...
I'd stay in cash for now SM. Looks like HF's, and institutional $$$ are once again fading their trades.

Until I see some follow through, I'll stay short, and cover the one's I need to cover. Even my growth Clients are 60% cash right now. If I knew Gann numbers I may go short more picks, or come out of cash a little more. Just don't have Mr. Gann's system...

I'll be happy with a 9-10% return for 2010 net of fees/ticket charges, etc.,

I'm long and short. I'm holding TZA. But I did go long on a small position of YGE...I like the chart on it. The overall market continues to slide down the lower bollinger band, so it's just a question of when the turn around will happen. I guess the way to play it is to go short but keep tight stops and watch out for a morning gap up. Lots of bad news out there right now...

SM

LEAPup · Jul 6, 2010

Quote from Smart Money:

I'm long and short. I'm holding TZA. But I did go long on a small position of YGE...I like the chart on it. The overall market continues to slide down the lower bollinger band, so it's just a question of when the turn around will happen. I guess the way to play it is to go short but keep tight stops and watch out for a morning gap up. Lots of bad news out there right now...

SM

Good! Are you taking on some of my picks? Can you imagine if you would have shorted TSLA when I did? Wow! Ok, no emotion. Lol!

I have some VERY happy Clients with this short, and that's an emotion to run from. I had to tell my assistant that I will call Clients after the close. Again, NO emotion. Be the Tiger laying in the weeds waiting for the INJURED deer to come by, not the normal deer herd you have to chase to eat...

YGE doesn't look bad. However, I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole right now. If you're aggressive to the tune of a Beta over 3, YGE would be a possible pick. Right now, I'd call it a hold. Not a long or short. If we follow through, I'll keep it in mind.

We need follow through to the upside before these types of picks become favorable for swing traders imo.

Last, why are you using a direxion etf with bb as a timing indicator? No disrespect meant. Just want to help you, and need to know the reasoning.

Are you monitoring ADX, credit spreads, etc.,?

levitation · Jul 6, 2010

thoughts: i'm still bullish for the next 2 weeks (this week + next)

interesting things taking place:

SRS (short DJ US real estate index) up 4% 7/06 today. Seems like commercial real estate is declining while the overall market is up

commericial real estate companies like SPG, BXP, VNO
all declining on good relative volume
Is this a sign? Or Could just be earnings announcement movements

if your bullish take a look at the weekly chart of GTLS. Its below bottom BB and if you look at the weekly chart its telling you its the sign of a downward move, or a false downward breakout in a horizontal consolidation range of 14.50-25.

Smart Money · Jul 6, 2010

Quote from LEAPup:

Good! Are you taking on some of my picks? Can you imagine if you would have shorted TSLA when I did? Wow! Ok, no emotion. Lol! I have some VERY happy Clients with this short, and that's an emotion to run from. I had to tell my assistant that I will call Clients after the close. Again, NO emotion. Be the Tiger laying in the weeds waiting for the INJURED deer to come by, not the normal deer herd you have to chase to eat...

YGE doesn't look bad. However, I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole right now. If you're aggressive to the tune of a Beta over 3, YGE would be a possible pick. Right now, I'd call it a hold. Not a long or short. If we follow through, I'll keep it in mind.

We need follow through to the upside before these types of picks become favorable for swing traders imo.

Last, why are you using a direxion etf with bb as a timing indicator? No disrespect meant. Just want to help you, and need to know the reasoning.

Are you monitoring ADX, credit spreads, etc.,?

I don't monitor much other than price action. I see price action as the soup that is an amalgam of everything else....forces that work together or against each other.

I don't like shorting...I can lose too much. I'd rather buy a leveraged short ETF to control losses. That might be amateurish, but it works for me. I like to play the markets themselves...big bloated ships that are slow to turn around and are therefore fairly predictable and forgiving when I'm wrong.

I do watch TNA because it is triple leveraged so I can see tiny movements easier that would otherwise be hidden. But I'm not just using a Bollinger band. I haven't shown what I *REALLY* use here or to you.

I can say that the simple graph that I posted here with the Bollinger bands is pretty darn powerful by itself though. Price likes to bounce between one band and the the centerline and so the bands and the centerlines give me a feeling like they have gravity and repulsion...price action is both sucked to them and pushed off them. If the cycles are long enough...mulit-day cycles...you can predict moves pretty well. For example, if price moves off the centerline toward a bollinger band, and it gets at least half way to the bollinger band, then it almost always moves to that band....almost always.

SM

NoDoji · Jul 7, 2010

Quote from LEAPup:

Btw, with expensive stuff like AAPL, take a look at a synthetic long. That is you buying a call and selling a put with the same strike and same expiration.

Buying a call and selling a put is as long as you can get option-wise. If AAPL falls hard you lose your call premium and you have a lot of risk with the naked put. Why not just buy the call if you're bullish on AAPL and limit your risk to the premium paid?

Smart Money · Jul 7, 2010

YGE and NFLX are looking good. TNA taking off. If these prices hold by the end of the day, I think we'll see them all continue to climb for at least a few days.

coolweb · Jul 7, 2010

Quote from Smart Money:

YGE and NFLX are looking good. TNA taking off. If these prices hold by the end of the day, I think we'll see them all continue to climb for at least a few days.

yge = sell right here
nflx = ugly chart that won't go up
tna = unhelpable

where you getting these stocks from?

Smart Money · Jul 7, 2010

Quote from coolweb:

yge = sell right here
nflx = ugly chart that won't go up
tna = unhelpable

where you getting these stocks from?

Right now:
YGE = $11.32
NFLX=$109.59
TNA=$34.12

I track TNA. YGE and NFLX are just interesting stocks pointed out to me. My time horizon is typically 3 to 7 days.

SM

LEAPup · Jul 7, 2010

Quote from NoDoji:

Buying a call and selling a put is as long as you can get option-wise. If AAPL falls hard you lose your call premium and you have a lot of risk with the naked put. Why not just buy the call if you're bullish on AAPL and limit your risk to the premium paid?

Very good point! Very risky trade if AAPL were to fall down. i.e., the iphones start locking up, the newer iphone becoming a dud, market meets air to the downside, etc.,

Sometimes the premium received just isn't worth the risk, I'll agree.

Btw, you still have me laughing (somewhat blushing lol) over the comment you made when you 'looked down, and couldn't see your _____."

Love to have people on here with a sense of humor!

LEAPup · Jul 7, 2010

Quote from Smart Money:

Right now:
YGE = $11.32
NFLX=$109.59
TNA=$34.12

I track TNA. YGE and NFLX are just interesting stocks pointed out to me. My time horizon is typically 3 to 7 days.

SM

Ok, NFLX is not one I'd buy right now for Client portfolios. EPS looks good, but the entry would be too aggressive for my blood.

Here's some ideas:

LONG:

FFIV
BVN
VYOG
ABV
CRUS
SAM
ENTR

SHORT:

TSLA
LAMR
DNDN
TRC
IOC
CLWR

SM, I'm going to attempt to PM you a PDF file.