Smart Money's Swing Trades Thru T.A.

I did a little searching around. Here's a clip that explains part of the "itchy cloud" you should check out. Btw, I have NO affiliation with the people in the clip. Just went through numerous "explanations" on youtube, and this one is one, imo that is better. Some may agree. Some may not. That's their baby, not mine.

Here's the clip. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-XG77_cooQ&feature=related

Give me some feedback from an engineer!:D Remember, my Family has your analytical mind, so no worries. I went to med school "back when" before figuring out that I wanted to be in this mess, so I'm analytical, and a little crazy!! Lol!!!!! Sooooo, analytical minds are at work here. Let's see where we can go with this.

The one's who want to learn will do A-Z to get "there." The lazy one's will fail, and blast the swing trading methodology as a farce...
 
Last, STOP griping about your making bad calls!!!!!!!!!!! Go back into history and find out why! You can go back 30 years and learn why the call didn't work... NO griping about bad calls! I've made them before. Just made less these days. Lol! Gotta have the mentality that you WILL make it back, and act as a "lion laying in the bush," waiting for that INJURED antelope to WALK by. i.e., trading should be as easy as walking over to "the table," and taking the $ off if it as you walk away with ease... Again, DO NOT gripe about a bad call. Just tighten up what you must tighten up, and go on. NO EMOTION!

Here's what I do for the balanced investor (plain vanilla for posting purposes):
1. Only enter a trade with 4% of their $$$, creating a diversified portfolio of about 15-20 equities?ETF's/Bonds, etc.,
2. Follow my rules on risk/trade management with ZERO, ZERO!!!! ZERO EMOTION!!!!! Did I say with no emotion, like a tiger shark eating a swimmer?:D
3. Repeat 1-2


Btw, don't pay attention to my synthetic long post. That can get you in BIG trouble if you're not finding a defined trend. If you're on the hook for 1000shares AAPL (10 contracts), and it drops 15%, you'll get it "put to you..." Ouch! BUT, get into a defined trend, and your odds change... Hope all is well bro!:)
 
Quote from levitation:

yea i was bullish monday but was cautious long so I played tight stops but didn't matter at all because my etf gapped down. fuck!


How are you guys playing this? I'm loading up long for the next 3 weeks. I think if this decline holds above 1040 s&p were good
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Lev,

I'm now out completely to see what happens. But if I had to pick one, I'd be short based on my charts.

Yeah, I got bit today, and I think a lot of people did. I didn't have any warning at all.

Tomorrow it might be fun to compare a moving average to a leveraged ETF...I'm guessing a guy could make a couple percent if you wait for a really good divergence between the M.A. and the price action.

SM
 
Quote from LEAPup:

Last, STOP griping about your making bad calls!!!!!!!!!!! Go back into history and find out why! You can go back 30 years and learn why the call didn't work... NO griping about bad calls! I've made them before. Just made less these days. Lol! Gotta have the mentality that you WILL make it back, and act as a "lion laying in the bush," waiting for that INJURED antelope to WALK by. i.e., trading should be as easy as walking over to "the table," and taking the $ off if it as you walk away with ease... Again, DO NOT gripe about a bad call. Just tighten up what you must tighten up, and go on. NO EMOTION!

Here's what I do for the balanced investor (plain vanilla for posting purposes):
1. Only enter a trade with 4% of their $$$, creating a diversified portfolio of about 15-20 equities?ETF's/Bonds, etc.,
2. Follow my rules on risk/trade management with ZERO, ZERO!!!! ZERO EMOTION!!!!! Did I say with no emotion, like a tiger shark eating a swimmer?:D
3. Repeat 1-2


Btw, don't pay attention to my synthetic long post. That can get you in BIG trouble if you're not finding a defined trend. If you're on the hook for 1000shares AAPL (10 contracts), and it drops 15%, you'll get it "put to you..." Ouch! BUT, get into a defined trend, and your odds change... Hope all is well bro!:)
More...

Leap,

I always do a post-mortem when I get burned to see what happened. I've dialed back the sensitivity of one of my charts as a response. I do know about how to lose...cut your loss and never look back. But I really appreciate the hand up after I hit the astroturf.

Here's the nuts that I am trying to crack. I'm trying to adjust my method to where it isn't so sensitive that I fall into a bull trap, but it isn't so insensitive that I miss out on the good gains....it is always a trade-off. If you make the indicators too insensitive, then you have to watch all these gyrations of price, which can be gut wrenching. I hate watching a stock drop 5% so that I can make 1%...so playing smaller cycles will work.

Yes...diversification is key. But an issue I have is that so many stocks seem to be so much in sympathy with the market that there isn't much net diversification. My problem is identifying stocks that don't correlate to other stocks so I can have *true* diversification. I'll be looking through you list of stocks for that...I appreciate the list. I need to get away from just doing ETFs.

SM
 
Quote from Smart Money:

Lev,

I'm now out completely to see what happens. But if I had to pick one, I'd be short based on my charts.

Yeah, I got bit today, and I think a lot of people did. I didn't have any warning at all.

Tomorrow it might be fun to compare a moving average to a leveraged ETF...I'm guessing a guy could make a couple percent if you wait for a really good divergence between the M.A. and the price action.

SM
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Lev,

Scotch that. if I had to choose between being long or short for the next few days, I'd be long. I saw something in a chart that changed my mind.


But that being said, the wisest course is probably to wait a day and see what happens.

SM
 
Yes, STAY IN CASH for now. Goodness! Lol!:D It's been daily reversal after another. Day Trader's market.

Anyhow, I didn't have a chance to read the earlier posts besides the most recent one. I'll answer older ones later.

If you'll take notice of the VIX, take a look at how far down it is, and how noisy/flat the markets are in comparison. Strange... We "should" expect a higher market with the VIX down like it is, however, it 'aint' happening. EUR is up against a weaker USD as well... i.e., there's no "master indicator."

I'll say the trend is still down, but be ready for an explosive move up when we reverse. I may miss it by 2-3 days, but will do well with my picks when I "get in the water."

Hmmmm... Time to go long? I won't say that. (yet) With the uptick rule not being in place like it once was, this is THE environment to short major losers who are fluid down, and staying that way.:) Just gotta find them.:cool:
 
Quote from LEAPup:

Yes, STAY IN CASH for now. Goodness! Lol!:D It's been daily reversal after another. Day Trader's market.

Anyhow, I didn't have a chance to read the earlier posts besides the most recent one. I'll answer older ones later.

If you'll take notice of the VIX, take a look at how far down it is, and how noisy/flat the markets are in comparison. Strange... We "should" expect a higher market with the VIX down like it is, however, it 'aint' happening. EUR is up against a weaker USD as well... i.e., there's no "master indicator."

I'll say the trend is still down, but be ready for an explosive move up when we reverse. I may miss it by 2-3 days, but will do well with my picks when I "get in the water."

Hmmmm... Time to go long? I won't say that. (yet) With the uptick rule not being in place like it once was, this is THE environment to short major losers who are fluid down, and staying that way.:) Just gotta find them.:cool:
More...

It's looking like the turn-around is here. Think I'll taper into TNA a bit. This puppy is way down on a "level" bollinger range. How risky could that be?
 
Quote from Smart Money:

It's looking like the turn-around is here. Think I'll taper into TNA a bit. This puppy is way down on a "level" bollinger range. How risky could that be?
More...

Interesting...one of my indicators is now telling me it is unsafe to be short. Isn't say "go long"...just telling me to not be short.
 
Shorted these this morning:
SPMD
JOE
HGSI
LAMR
IOC
C

Ready to BTC when necessary, but for now, these are all good shorts outside of IOC today.
 
Quote from Smart Money:

It's looking like the turn-around is here. Think I'll taper into TNA a bit. This puppy is way down on a "level" bollinger range. How risky could that be?
More...

The leveraged ETF's are tough to use in this kind of mkt environment. I personally wouldn't. That's just me.

Again, hang in there. It's still pretty dysmal out here. I keep expecting a bounce, but I'll be shorting for now. When we DO bounce (maybe in 2018:( lol), I'll be able to actually smile again.

NO, I don't like the short side, but that's emotion, and emotion and $$ will soon separate. MUCH rather see an improving Economy, and raging bull market though...
 
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