Simple Profitable Method - Take 2

[GTS]

Quote from JSSPMK:

But assuming 50/50 chance what is, in your opinion, the absolute highest consecutive amount of tails you may get? Would you say any amount is possible?

Yes any length streak of tails is possible.

You think otherwise? Then you tell us - what is the "absolute highest consecutive amount of tails you may get" and explain what happens on the next toss that forces it to go heads so as to not exceed the "absolute".

If you think about what you are saying you must realize how silly it sounds. Getting 100 tails in a row is possible but not 101?

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from GTS:

Yes any length streak of tails is possible.

You think otherwise? Then you tell us - what is the "absolute highest consecutive amount of tails you may get" and explain what happens on the next toss that forces it to go heads so as to not exceed the "absolute".

If you think about what you are saying you must realize how silly it sounds. Getting 100 tails in a row is possible but not 101?

My man, you just won't get 100 consecutive tails perhaps until you are dead many times over

I have a better question for you, assuming a 50/50 outcome on every single toss, what are the odds of getting a run of 20 consecutive tail tosses?

 

[GTS]

Quote from JSSPMK:
My man, you just won't get 100 consecutive tails perhaps until you are dead many times over

That's what computers are for. Nice how you refused to answer the question. So you think that 20 tails in a row are possible but not 21?

Quote from JSSPMK:
I have a better question for you, assuming a 50/50 outcome on every single toss, what are the odds of getting a run of 20 consecutive tail tosses?

1/(2^20)

Edit: Please read this Wiki page, it applies directly to what we are talking about: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Please look at the part I've highlighted below:

The gambler's fallacy is a formal fallacy. It is the incorrect belief that the likelihood of a random event can be affected by or predicted from other, independent events.

The gambler's fallacy gets its name from the fact that, where the random event is the throw of a die or the spin of a roulette wheel, gamblers will risk money on their belief in "a run of luck" or a mistaken understanding of "the law of averages". It often arises because a similarity between random processes is mistakenly interpreted as a predictive relationship between them. (For instance, two fair dice are similar in that they each have the same chances of yielding each number - but they are independent in that they do not actually influence one another.)

The gambler's fallacy often takes one of these forms:

A particular outcome of a random event is more likely to occur because it has happened recently ("run of good luck");
A particular outcome is more likely to occur because it has not happened recently ("law of averages" or "it's my turn now").

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from GTS:

That's what computers are for. Nice how you refused to answer the question.

1/(2^20)

I didn't refuse to answer your question, as I never said what you posted there was no need to oblige the request.

It is a 50/50, but what happens to odds of getting tails after 10 consecutive, then 20, then 30? The odds do not remain the same.

edit - and you link confirms the above, I did not say anything about getting a consecutive run of heads after so many tails, I just said that because 1 in 2 chance is an equal amount and keeping in mind that odds of getting a long run deminish after every consecutive tails toss - that means that probability of getting heads increases

 

[GTS]

Quote from JSSPMK:

It is a 50/50, but what happens to odds of getting tails after 10 consecutive, then 20, then 30? The odds do not remain the same.

No you are wrong, the odds remain the same. Again, I put the burden back on you to justify your statement. If the odds are not 50/50 after getting 20 tails then what are the "new odds" for that 21st flip? Be specific.

You really should educate yourself before continuing to make a fool out of yourself - this is not a difficult concept.

 

[Allaces]

Quote from JSSPMK:

But assuming 50/50 chance what is, in your opinion, the absolute highest consecutive amount of tails you may get? Would you say any amount is possible?

BTW casinos do employ a maximum bet in most games, do they not? And statistics favours both at 50/50, so it's an equal chance, my opinion is based on a practical inability for streaks to last, therefore probaility rises even though every next toss is an independant event.

Dude give it up.. you are not a mathematician and they must have the final word here.. one of the biggest character flaws that flushes traders out of the market is not being able to admit they are wrong about a trade.. this stubborn refusal to believe mathematics does not bode well for your trading discipline

 

[JSSPMK]

You are really something, here is a paragraph from your link:

What is the probability of flipping 21 heads in a row, with a fair coin? 1 in 2,097,152!!!

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from JSSPMK:

SPM works, it all depends on your understanding of a working pattern. Which pattern is it? Usually the best one is the one that creates 2 to 3 declining peaks or 2-3 rising lows prior to hitting the 0 line. I would only trade those set-ups using SPM, ie 2-3 failure crosses & only then I would enter. It's like in Blackjack in a way, who has a more favourable odds of getting a better hand after you have 4-5 consecutive losses, you or a dealer? You, of course. Are you always gonna have a winning hand after 4-5 consecutive losses - NO. Is SPM The Holy Grail - NO. What is SPM? It is a fantastic easy to understand pattern that works most times when right conditions are present. Why do you need 2-3 failure crosses? Because that way longer term charts are getting prepped for a larger move & that is all that is important.

3 lower peaks + divergence

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from Allaces:

Dude give it up.. you are not a mathematician and they must have the final word here.. one of the biggest character flaws that flushes traders out of the market is not being able to admit they are wrong about a trade.. this stubborn refusal to believe mathematics does not bode well for your trading discipline

Of course I am not & I am not arguing for the sake of it. Nobody can dispute that chances of getting 30 consecutive tails are the same as getting 10 or 50, even though it is a 50/50 chance on every single coin flip.

I just want to repeat that I have never said that you are bound to get 20 heads after a run of 20 consecutive tails, I only said that it is inevitable that you would get 1 toss of heads sooner or later, that's all.

 

[Allaces]

Quote from JSSPMK:



I just want to repeat that I have never said that you are bound to get 20 heads after a run of 20 consecutive tails

No.. but you did say the chances of getting a tail are enhanced after 20 heads in a row... and I think you still believe it despite what you've been told