Simple Profitable Method - Take 2

[GTS]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Maybe somebody else wants to comment on this? I don't know any mathematicians.

Yes, you are wrong. Its common sense. Explain why you think you are right.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from GTS:

Yes, you are wrong. Its common sense. Explain why you think you are right.

Because of statistics, if you know that end result can't be anything but 50/50, then you will be destined to get a black eventually (roulette) and eventually means that probability increases marginally after every single consecutive loss. There is no constante in patterns, it's the way of Ying & Yang, Chinese have established it a while back or quite simply - nothing lasts forever and if you know that this something will not last forever then you can try and establish when the change will take place. OK, I will agree that in a coin flip you can get perhaps 30 consecutive heads, we can only assume that it's possible even though none of us have experienced it, what will happen on 31st flip if 30th was the last consecutive heads? It doesn't really matter how many consecutive flips can happen, what is imperitive is that an opposite will eventually happen & that establishes a fact that probability increases after every single consecutive loss in a coin flip if you bet on heads all the time.

 

[GTS]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Because of statistics, if you know that end result can't be anything but 50/50, then you will be destined to get a black eventually (roulette) and eventually means that probability increases marginally after every single consecutive loss. There is no constante in patterns, it's the way of Ying & Yang, Chinese have established it a while back or quite simply - nothing lasts forever and if you know that this something will not last forever then you can try and establish when the change will take place. OK, I will agree that in a coin flip you can get perhaps 30 consecutive heads, we can only assume that it's possible even though none of us have experienced it, what will happen on 31st flip if 30th was the last consecutive heads? It doesn't really matter how many consecutive flips can happen, what is imperitive is that an opposite will eventually happen & that establishes a fact that probability increases after every single consecutive loss in a coin flip if you bet on heads all the time.

Wow, I hope you are just pulling my leg - otherwise your attempt to use logic to reach a fundamentally flawed conclusion is amazing.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from GTS:

Wow, I hope you are just pulling my leg - otherwise your attempt to use logic to reach a fundamentally flawed conclusion is amazing.

not pulling anything

 

[Allaces]

In the example of a coin toss each toss is a unique event consisting of exactly 50% probability for heads and 50% probability for tails... even a 99 heads in a row will not change the 100th toss from still being a 50 50 chance

Like I said, I've actually run the system of only betting on black after 3 reds in a row on a play roulette wheel at home to prove it to myself and it came up 50/50 over time

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from Allaces:

In the example of a coin toss each toss is a unique event consisting of exactly 50% probability for heads and 50% probability for tails... even a 99 heads in a row will not change the 100th toss from still being a 50 50 chance

Like I said, I've actually run the system of only betting on black after 3 reds in a row on a play roulette wheel at home to prove it to myself and it came up 50/50 over time

You are right in saying that every single future coin toss carries an equal chance of being heads or tails, but what I am banging on about is the overall 50/50, resulting in an increasing probability after every consecutive loss

 

[Allaces]

Quote from JSSPMK:

You are right in saying that every single future coin toss carries an equal chance of being heads or tails, but what I am banging on about is the overall 50/50, resulting in an increasing probability after every consecutive loss

I know it is very counter intuitive when you know a 50 50 event will even out over time.. but perhaps this will help illustrate the problem..

3 heads in a row will not come up very often... but when it does, half the time it will register 4 heads in a row and the other half of the time it will register a tail.. thats why it doesn't affect the overall evening out.. not the mathematical explanation I'm sure but certainly how I resolved it in my mind

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from JSSPMK:

SPM works, it all depends on your understanding of a working pattern. Which pattern is it? Usually the best one is the one that creates 2 to 3 declining peaks or 2-3 rising lows prior to hitting the 0 line. I would only trade those set-ups using SPM, ie 2-3 failure crosses & only then I would enter. It's like in Blackjack in a way, who has a more favourable odds of getting a better hand after you have 4-5 consecutive losses, you or a dealer? You, of course. Are you always gonna have a winning hand after 4-5 consecutive losses - NO. Is SPM The Holy Grail - NO. What is SPM? It is a fantastic easy to understand pattern that works most times when right conditions are present. Why do you need 2-3 failure crosses? Because that way longer term charts are getting prepped for a larger move & that is all that is important.

2 lower peaks + divergence

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from Allaces:

I know it is very counter intuitive when you know a 50 50 event will even out over time.. but perhaps this will help illustrate the problem..

3 heads in a row will not come up very often... but when it does, half the time it will register 4 heads in a row and the other half of the time it will register a tail.. thats why it doesn't affect the overall evening out.. not the mathematical explanation I'm sure but certainly how I resolved it in my mind

I think it's reasonable to say that any single coin toss carries a 50/50 chance, but due to overall statistics of 50/50 eventually you'd get tails and because of that undisputed fact probability increases, it sure doesn't decrease. Maybe I am not understood on this one or not making myself clear, maybe GTS can comment why he thinks there is a flaw in my logic and where.

 

[Allaces]

Quote from JSSPMK:

I think it's reasonable to say that any single coin toss carries a 50/50 chance, but due to overall statistics of 50/50 eventually you'd get tails and because of that undisputed fact probability increases, it sure doesn't decrease. Maybe I am not understood on this one or not making myself clear, maybe GTS can comment why he thinks there is a flaw in my logic and where.

It's the fact that 3 in a row wont happen very often.. and when it does it must be viewed as a unique event carrying the same 50 50 chance on the next toss..

Like I said I've tested it in the real world and resolved it in my own mind.. short of giving you the mathematical formula that explains it.. I cant do anymore