Simple Profitable Method - Take 2
- Thread starter jimns
- Start date
- Status
Discussion is to do with SPM. You don't necessarily need indicators to make money, but being able to time the market properly is of great importance to be able to maximise profits unless you trade Mr Carboni's 10+ point stops trading 1 contract. One of those methods to "zoom into correct entries" is SPM, some agree, some disagree.
The only thing more amazing then JSSPMK's original statement about the increased odds of winning a BJ hand after a string of losers is his rebuttal to jimns that if you want "proof" you should play a few hands and see for yourself.Quote from jimns:
JSSPMK
Better publish quickly - mathematicians and statisticians everywhere are going to be very interested in that outcome - especially the part about how the 7th hand remembers the 6 that preceded it.
Sorry, after that it's hard to give anything posted by JSSPMK much credence.
Ok he doesn't understand probability.. all us ex gamblers know each toss of the coin is a discrete unique event in time and regardless of streaks it is always a 50% chance.. and unless you are rainman and counting cards 4 decks deep it holds true for BJ too.. however
He may be right for different reasons in that the first couple of zero line cross attempts are build ups to the larger time cycles kicking in or the market probing levels
I personally take them all because the losers are small and the winners tall
Why do you disregard streaks? That is exactly why probability of getting a winning hand increases after several consecutive losses & I think I did say that it is not a 100% strategy, simply probability increases. I don't know whether that matters or not now, but I was going on about online single player BJ. I was drawing parallels between the SPM, the way I see it, and BJ. Nice weekend to all.
BTW nothing too cute in ES using SPM today.
You cant apply streaks the way you say... if the roulette wheel comes up black 3 times in a row you do not have a better chance of it coming up red on the 4th spin.. I know that sounds counter intuitive because eventually red and black will even out but each spin is isolated and an equal chance regardless of what came before it..
Try betting the table on red only after 3 blacks in a row.. know what happens to this system over time? 50/50.. any gambler that has studied probability knows this to be true
http://www.knowyourluck.com/coins1.html
And BTW.. plenty of cute stuff in the ER2.. thought I made that clear 400 pages ago
Try betting the table on red only after 3 blacks in a row.. know what happens to this system over time? 50/50.. any gambler that has studied probability knows this to be true
http://www.knowyourluck.com/coins1.html
And BTW.. plenty of cute stuff in the ER2.. thought I made that clear 400 pages ago
I sense a partial agreement on your part in the 2nd part of the above paragraph. Problem with BJ is that wins can't be extended the way a trade can be ie BJ pays out 100% of stake and a trade can return a lot more than initial stop loss. So it is not a viable strategy to use the Martingale approach in gambling as far as I am concerned. Secondly, I disagree with your first part of the above paragraph, due to statistics. Probability increases after every consecutive loss.
- Status