Silver may be near another top

Quote from Hydroblunt:

I'm just curious, do you have any fundamental rationalization why you think silver should collapse into the $20s? The metal has been suppressed by naked shorts for a very long time.

If you're a commodity bear, that's one thing. But I don't see you shorting oil or gasoline or softs or gold.
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The only reason I think that is that it was taken over by a horde of retail investors engaging in a pure speculative frenzy, so I think the prices of the last month or two are just a hype job caused by their buying, with no fundamental justification. That didn't happen with gold, oil, or softs.

I am mildly bearish on commodities, due to the dollar having broken its downtrend, and the EU debt situation blowing up again, but I think silver will perform much worse than the others.
 
Middle east could be having another war (other than NATO's war). Most corporate earning is flat, debt ceiling is another threat. PM is very attractive in time of uncertainty.
 
Volatility should die down over the next few weeks.

But it was one hell of ride. We closed at a key level on Friday.

Feels like it might be waiting for an external cue to move up/down.
 
I've just exited most of my silver bear bets. One of my rules is to cover shorts into extreme weakness, and we clearly saw that today. I still have a moderate put position (Dec 35 puts) as I think we are in a bear market and could hit $20 by xmas. But I think we'll get a better opportunity to reshort - something like $34-35 would be a nice place to reload IMO.
 
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