Silver may be near another top

[m22au]

Quote from hajimow:

SLV did not hit $40 and today it is down. The second wave of buyers could not keep the rally after the the big drop. If SLV cannot hit $40 today, it will keep dropping to $30 and below.

When you refer to "SLV", do you mean SLV or do you mean silver spot / futures?

because the high for SLV today is 38.37

 

[hajimow]

Quote from m22au:

When you refer to "SLV", do you mean SLV or do you mean silver spot / futures?

because the high for SLV today is 38.37

I mean SLV ETF. By the way, I have never traded silver. I am just observing. I am interested only its effect in the stock market. I trade SPY and tech options

 

[Ghost of Cutten]

I've exited my outright shorts, and just have on some of the long gold/short silver spreads now, which I intend to hold longer-term. IMO silver is looking like it could be in a volatile trading range for a while (maybe 1 month or so), although I expect it to eventually break significantly lower. I'll look to place bearish bets into the rallies ($39-42) and cover some of them into declines, but will keep a core short position expecting an eventual break into the 20s.

My ideal scenario would be an eventual double top around $40-41, where I will load the put on December puts, anticipating an eventual bear market collapse into the low 20s. If it happens, that could produce some hefty gains.

 

[m22au]

Although I don't share your conviction about a break below $30, I am seeing some similarities between silver and the Nasdaq in 2000.

Nasdaq peak in March 2000 = *roughly* 5,000 points
silver peak in 2011 = *roughly* 5,000 cents

Nasdaq intermediate trough a few weeks later = *roughly* 3,200
silver trough a week later = roughly 3,200 cents

then as we know the Naz was able to rise up to 4,000 or so in September, before it started to decline again.

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

I've exited my outright shorts, and just have on some of the long gold/short silver spreads now, which I intend to hold longer-term. IMO silver is looking like it could be in a volatile trading range for a while (maybe 1 month or so), although I expect it to eventually break significantly lower. I'll look to place bearish bets into the rallies ($39-42) and cover some of them into declines, but will keep a core short position expecting an eventual break into the 20s.

My ideal scenario would be an eventual double top around $40-41, where I will load the put on December puts, anticipating an eventual bear market collapse into the low 20s. If it happens, that could produce some hefty gains.

 

[Hydroblunt]

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:


My ideal scenario would be an eventual double top around $40-41, where I will load the put on December puts, anticipating an eventual bear market collapse into the low 20s. If it happens, that could produce some hefty gains.

I'm just curious, do you have any fundamental rationalization why you think silver should collapse into the $20s? The metal has been suppressed by naked shorts for a very long time.

If you're a commodity bear, that's one thing. But I don't see you shorting oil or gasoline or softs or gold.

 

[ogarbitrage]

Quote from Hydroblunt:

The metal has been suppressed by naked shorts for a very long time.

ALL SHORTS IN FUTURES ARE NAKED!!!!!!!!!!

 

[[Proximo]]

A lot depends on currencies and how the indices trade from here. Don't think we'll drop to the 20's from here just yet.

I suspect we break the previous high (37.90), suck in some longs before we turn back down.

I'll be watching 41.25 on the short side.

 

[[Proximo]]

Bought the exact low - sold the exact high yesterday in Silver. Was a very nice day.

Today's gap fill was very clear as well.

 

[[Proximo]]

Short Yen as well. Planning to hold this sucker for 2-6 weeks.

Good risk vs reward IMO.

 

[AKUMATOTENSHI]

Quote from shortie:

SI 4 day high AH.

I suppose this is still the dead cat bounce phenomenon.

Right now I am don't have any feel for Silver.

Summary of how I perceived/anticipated SLV in the last month:
Overbought in early Apr - pretty clear - checked
Unexpected parabolic runup - unexpected but understandable given its history - checked
Sharp selloff - totally expected - checked
Oversold bounce - totally expected with the gap on daily as a good target

After gap fill - muddy waters - not checked

what do you guys look at at this juncture?

I would agree with your points. The hype cycle has been completed. From the retail end consumers have been pumped and the next stage with follow. Time to scare them all out of the market and buy it back at the bottom.

Akuma