shorting the jumping cat

yes, still short, no problem to me. Willing to add more on the short side if Cat breaks out.
There are two steps to success:
1) Time
2) Money

Questions?

1) How long do trends in CAT continue in one direction?
2) Will Cat go directly to the sky?
3) Is Cat a cyclical stock?
4) Is Cat overbought and will there never be an oversold situation?
5) Is Cat a company with a new vision or a mature business?
6) Will this be a new area for CAT?
7) Will this time be different from the past?
 
Isn't it funny that you ask questions like that when you're in a position? I'll look at 10 years of chart data and the stock will be fairly predictable in certain ranges or extremes. So then I enter the position and I start saying "jeez, what if this is different than the 10,000 other times the stock acted this way". I find that experience starts to quell this self doubt.

Sorry about the tangent, I just thought I'd say that I like the short on CAT as of Friday's close. I think it's going to break any day now.

Good luck to you!
 
Keep on shorting CAT.

The reason why some other stocks in the sector such as PCAR CUM etc. are trending strongly upwards - *I suspect* - is as a possible target in a consolidation play.

Look to an imminent announcement from the likes of Volvo CAT etc..
I wouldn't short CAT until after any such announcement...

But then again you have considered all this, haven't you?

BTW how's that MCD short?
Still short from 21.50?
(now 23.89 on FRI breakout on 2xVol)


LOL

ps I have found the one perfect contraian indicator: Heilbronner.
 
CAT has broken to 5 year highs as well as all time highs.

It seems perfectly reasonable to consider shorting cyclicals after they begin making new highs at a point in a bull run similar in time and distance to prior runs in the stock. But when a stock like this begins to turn, it offers numerous opportunities to short for the intermediate term.

My point is that it is probably best to allow weakness to show its face before entering the short with the objectives you have.

CAT has only been showing strength since February. It may have broken out of a 5 year range for good. We'll see.

No position personally.

Any traders here use Caterpillar equipment?
 
Quote from running_bare:

Keep on shorting CAT.

The reason why some other stocks in the sector such as PCAR CUM etc. are trending strongly upwards - *I suspect* - is as a possible target in a consolidation play.

Look to an imminent announcement from the likes of Volvo CAT etc..
I wouldn't short CAT until after any such announcement...

But then again you have considered all this, haven't you?

BTW how's that MCD short?
Still short from 21.50?
(now 23.89 on FRI breakout on 2xVol)


LOL

ps I have found the one perfect contraian indicator: Heilbronner.
More...

Already covered MCD, and yes with a plus.
If you are using me as a contrarian indicator, you are triple digit in the red for the last 9 months, LOL.
 
Consolidation below the 15min 40 sma with a nice divergence in the macd. Local ma support is 67-67.5. A rollover here puts the daily macd in divergence too. A pullback to 60 is very reasonable looking at the weekly and monthly charts, and it conveniently brings price back to the daily 40 sma.

And there remains that gap at 58.

:)
 
Quote from heilbronner:



Already covered MCD, and yes with a plus.
More...


Why?

Why did you cover it?

Where did you cover it?

Even if you got out at the best possible price since you're short, you only bought 20.50, in other words 1 point profit.

And that was only on one day, otherwise I find it hard to believe you got bought for less than 21.

But why there? When you specified your target was 18? And put in a great cover story for it, with all the fundamentals etc?

Seems strange, that's all.

Similar story with AFFX too? Covered that one at the lows too?


Not saying you didn't do any of this, or if you didn't that really means anything. After all, it's only a couple of trades. It just seems weird to me when someone puts in so much explanation into their entry, and hardly mentions two words about the exit; especially when the exit had nothing to do with the original plan, as it was spelled out to us.


As for this CAT short, good luck. You sound as though you know what you're doing, so it's always interesting to hear the opposing perspective. Personally, I have been too lazy on the scans, but I wish I picked up CAT, just to watch it play out. Looking at it, I don't think I would've played it though, I can't see any good stops there, and there was what looked like tough resi at 65ish, even though it's gone through that pretty easily, but I wouldn't have known that at the time. Still, to me that's a brave move taking it short just after the high volume break out -- you couldn't have waited just a bit? It's that important to be short right then?
 
Quote from alfonso:




Why?

Why did you cover it? MCd was down, I had a profit and already the next trade.

Where did you cover it? Pretty at the low.

Even if you got out at the best possible price since you're short, you only bought 20.50, in other words 1 point profit.

Do you know if I added additional pieces on an up day?

And that was only on one day, otherwise I find it hard to believe you got bought for less than 21.

Believe whatever you wanna believe.

But why there? When you specified your target was 18? And put in a great cover story for it, with all the fundamentals etc?

Ok, I didn't give an update on this, forgot, sorry, but I'm trading NQ intraday and therefore I'm quite busy. Also, trades I post from time to time are only a very small fraction of what I#m actually doing.



Seems strange, that's all.

Similar story with AFFX too? Covered that one at the lows too?

Do your homework, it's all in the posts.
Please check all other postings, like
Allianz, almost exactly the low, posted in real time
Volkswagen, almost exactly the low, posted in real time
Vans
ADBE
Sunw
Ebay, please read exactly!!
BP
Amgn...


Regarding Cat I will give an update when I add additional pieces or when I will cover. Until that happens, this will be my last post regarding Cat.
More...
 
Regarding Affx, covering with the exact price was given in the post. There was a small loss on the stock short postion, but after covering I was selling Affx Puts and had profits on these positions.

Think I'm tired of justifying posts.
 
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