Short DAX at 7740

ES down 1% now and the DAX futures are still up 1/2%. We need one of those DAX catch-up days tomorrow when it drops 2x what everyone else does to realign.

unfortunately, i have taken off 1/2 my position before this move down (but of course) in an attempt to realign my margin with what a sane person would be carrying. wish i'd have stayed insane for an hour longer....
 
Quote from Full Tilt:

ES down 1% now and the DAX futures are still up 1/2%. We need one of those DAX catch-up days tomorrow when it drops 2x what everyone else does to realign.

unfortunately, i have taken off 1/2 my position before this move down (but of course) in an attempt to realign my margin with what a sane person would be carrying. wish i'd have stayed insane for an hour longer....
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My guess is that Dow is going to recover 1/2%, the same for S&P.
10850 or so
 
Quote from archimg77:

My guess is that Dow is going to recover 1/2%, the same for S&P.
10850 or so
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i took 1/3 of the remaining position off at 19.50 based on my indicators. i'm going to re-enter that 1/3 in the 30's. it can go higher, i just don't want my position reduced any more, as my st target is 6100- something that seems infinitely doable- possibly tomorrow.
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

Another mind blowing decoupling day. ES down full 11 candles FDAX up 30 points. I think we will see tomorrow some german crybabies...
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One can only hope. little concerned that this drop blew its load too early. 20 minutes left for the bots to raise it back up. i just want to see 3 figures down in the dow at the close. a replay of last thursday would suit me fine though too!

btw, i think the ES was a good 10 points higher than it is now when the DAX made it's day low at 6200. That we couldn't even get within 10 points of that now is truly amazing to me. i can guarantee you one thing- if i were long, it would be at 6150 right now!
 
the price action on the FDAX indeed seems very strange.

Questions:

- could the current market be purely driven by option hedging - i.e. trading desks either protecting strikes because short options (6200 puts for instance) or are they long vol and capturing the gamma (I doubt it as one desk short is another desk long in the option world) so I tend to favor the first solution, i.e. defending 6200 strike

- watchout for Euro and potential intervention today. It's friday and we've been making new lows. ECB has been using the fx swap lines provided by the fed and has some ammunition to prop the euro until the 19th of may when some of the greek debt needs to be refinanced

- my ES target is for 1131 by monday before we bounce back to test 1170. Downside action could start taking place once europe is closed.

I'll be very cautious today
 
Unbelievable volume at this stage. Who is so blatantly silly to amassing FDAX over 6200 in thousands of contracts if you can have it below 6200 for much cheaper VWAP ???
 
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