Short DAX at 7740

Quote from ASusilovic:

If you compare earnings yields to 10 government yields ( that's more conservatice than to compare it to 3month LIBOR ), you have a situation of massively cheap stocks out there....
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don't tell me this reasoning is still used

comparing overvalued sovereign bonds (yield of 2.7% in Germany) with equities?

Two completely different asset classes
 
Quote from Alexandre:

don't tell me this reasoning is still used

comparing overvalued sovereign bonds (yield of 2.7% in Germany) with equities?

Two completely different asset classes
More...

It is still used. :)
 
stops targeting on FDAX, saw it yesterday evening when we hit 6096 just to take out some stops

today, the price action is very very weird, no shorting for the time being
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

FDAX / ES decoupling...
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Yeah, I'm one of the short victims.

ES actually below fair value now. Dax futures went out at 4pm EDT @ 6047, so they're 65 points above that now.


Refresh my memory, is it the US or the EU that's having more trouble right now?!

Hoping (ok, praying at this point!) that the recouple based on a lower ES.
 
Quote from Full Tilt:

Yeah, I'm one of the short victims.

ES actually below fair value now. Dax futures went out at 4pm EDT @ 6047, so they're 65 points above that now.


Refresh my memory, is it the US or the EU that's having more trouble right now?!

Hoping (ok, praying at this point!) that the recouple based on a lower ES.
More...

Germans are celebrating GDP growth. They will not have enough time to do so taking into consideration that all of a sudden every EU government is keen to be cut spending. Spain just annunced more aggressive cuts, i.e. cutting €6 in investments, 5 % cut in government wages and pension freeze. Now, Germany has to cut its spending, too.
 
the zone 6130 is a sell but there is the risk ES touches again 1161 or higher in which case the FDAX would just 100 points based on its recent outperformance

staying on the sidelines for now
 
Quote from Alexandre:

the zone 6130 is a sell but there is the risk ES touches again 1161 or higher in which case the FDAX would just 100 points based on its recent outperformance

staying on the sidelines for now
More...

I've been thinking the same thing re: the ES going back to the 1162 resist from sunday night/monday morning. Also trying to figure where that would put the DAX given it's extreme relative performance. It isn't just today, either. If you plot the ES and DAX over the past week, the DAX is seriously outperforming. Seems like there needs to be a reversion to the mean, but it sure isn't acting like that will be to the downside.

The DAX rally up mirrored the big bounce in teh EUR/YEN and $ crosses; but those moves have largely retraced with the DAX staying up near the HOD. AND here we go again, this time with the ES in tow.

I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue...
 
6130 - 6090 is compression zone, I was thinking of shorting some at 6130 to revisit 6090 but with the ES where it is, I'm very hesitant.

Yesterday's range on FDAX was roughly 180 points, with almost uninterrupted buying.

Today, we could end up below 6000 or see 6180-6200, it's a coin toss from here
 
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