Short DAX at 7740

we should be rangebound for the morning, 4720 - 4780

If we break 4720 before the numbers we're going down hard all day

If we settle in the middle of the range before the numbers, it's a lottery

I don't want to be long for sure before the numbers

I don't believe expiration will have too much of an impact in influencing where we open

keep an eye an US futures, if they go down hard this morning, it smells trouble for the GDp figures (I believe in leakage)
 
Quote from Brendan R:

4720 held, should be heading for 4750-4760 and stabilise there
More...

Brendan, are u talking about the us \CPI numbers? i thought those data sets doesnt have any impact these days
 
yes, apologies, they could have an impact as, as you state it, these numbers do not seem to matter nowadays. A negative CPI could switch us from the "inflation" expectation current rationality to a "deflation is not over yet". Couple this with the weak retail sales we had and you could have a huge rally in bonds. That would be a negative for the market.

Capex is the same story, if we have a reading sub 68.8%...

On the other hand, today could see 900 on ES and 4820-4850 on Dax.

on the GDP numbers coming from Germany, well, they are bad, really bad but markets don't seem to care. The markets are pricing a V recovery. I believe there is room for disappointment and I remain very bearish. I think most of the short covering/screwing of shorts has happened. it is the task of the dealers now to keep us as high as possible in order to distribute longs accumulated. This could prove harder and harder by the day if dumb institutional and retail money doesn't buy the V recovery. It could turn out to be very ugly if they actually start selling...
Let's see how patriotic everyone will be

:)
 
Quote from Brendan R:

yes, apologies, they could have an impact as, as you state it, these numbers do not seem to matter nowadays. A negative CPI could switch us from the "inflation" expectation current rationality to a "deflation is not over yet". Couple this with the weak retail sales we had and you could have a huge rally in bonds. That would be a negative for the market.

Capex is the same story, if we have a reading sub 68.8%...

On the other hand, today could see 900 on ES and 4820-4850 on Dax.

on the GDP numbers coming from Germany, well, they are bad, really bad but markets don't seem to care. The markets are pricing a V recovery. I believe there is room for disappointment and I remain very bearish. I think most of the short covering/screwing of shorts has happened. it is the task of the dealers now to keep us as high as possible in order to distribute longs accumulated. This could prove harder and harder by the day if dumb institutional and retail money doesn't buy the V recovery. It could turn out to be very ugly if they actually start selling...
Let's see how patriotic everyone will be

:)
More...

lol looking at the same picture and still went long for the day at 4725 ... hope it plays out well.. :)
 
Quote from David M:

lol looking at the same picture and still went long for the day at 4725 ... hope it plays out well.. :)
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well dunno gdp came out bad cpi even and core cpi a tad better ... eur/usd is not melting down ....

I'll keep my longs for now ...
 
Quote from Brendan R:

yes, apologies, they could have an impact as, as you state it, these numbers do not seem to matter nowadays. A negative CPI could switch us from the "inflation" expectation current rationality to a "deflation is not over yet". Couple this with the weak retail sales we had and you could have a huge rally in bonds. That would be a negative for the market.

Capex is the same story, if we have a reading sub 68.8%...

On the other hand, today could see 900 on ES and 4820-4850 on Dax.

on the GDP numbers coming from Germany, well, they are bad, really bad but markets don't seem to care. The markets are pricing a V recovery. I believe there is room for disappointment and I remain very bearish. I think most of the short covering/screwing of shorts has happened. it is the task of the dealers now to keep us as high as possible in order to distribute longs accumulated. This could prove harder and harder by the day if dumb institutional and retail money doesn't buy the V recovery. It could turn out to be very ugly if they actually start selling...
Let's see how patriotic everyone will be

:)
More...

i am very patriotic, i need to make a lot of doles, so i can go shop..........do my bit to help the economy.
 
Quote from David M:

well dunno gdp came out bad cpi even and core cpi a tad better ... eur/usd is not melting down ....

I'll keep my longs for now ...
More...

out half 4750
 
Quote from xty:

i am very patriotic, i need to make a lot of doles, so i can go shop..........do my bit to help the economy.
More...


what are doles? ... besides would be nice to see you posting your trades.
 
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