Short DAX at 7740
- Thread starter ASusilovic
- Start date
Quote from ASusilovic:
Playing the volatility breakout that will certainly occur. Adding 5150.00 calls and 4800.00 puts.
Might also be good time for put premium collection.
Volatility breakout, I believe you were buying strangle.
What confuses me is that talk about the put premium. You were selling puts?
Of course ! I have Mr. Geithner´s word that everything is just fine in the USA !
In line with our recent sector changes, we take a more pro-cyclical view in our country allocation to reflect the recent improvement in macro data. We upgrade the DAX to overweight and downgrade the SMI to underweight. After a strong performance, we downgrade the OMX to neutral. We also highlight three pair trade ideas.
Reflecting "green shoots of recovery" in our country allocation
The latest surveys all point towards an improvement in the economic environment. We have taken a more pro-cyclical view in our recent sector update and aim to reflect this in our country portfolio allocation. After taking a cautious stance earlier in the year, we now upgrade the DAX from underweight to overweight and downgrade the SMI from overweight to underweight. Although the OMX tends to do well when the macro environment is more pro-cyclical, we reduce our stance to neutral. After a strong performance, valuation no longer looks attractive.
Three pair trade ideas
We highlight three pair trade ideas. We would recommend going long the DAX vs. SMI. As we expect near-term data to improve, we think the DAX should outperform the SMI. We also like the DAX vs. the OMX and the FTSE100 vs. the SMI as rotation trades within cyclical and defensive indices, respectively.
Five drivers to shape our country allocation
We identify five drivers to focus on: macro sensitivity, the GS Financial Conditions Index, sector exposure, stock exposure and valuations. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of each market using these criteria.
Reflecting "green shoots of recovery" in our country allocation
The latest surveys all point towards an improvement in the economic environment. We have taken a more pro-cyclical view in our recent sector update and aim to reflect this in our country portfolio allocation. After taking a cautious stance earlier in the year, we now upgrade the DAX from underweight to overweight and downgrade the SMI from overweight to underweight. Although the OMX tends to do well when the macro environment is more pro-cyclical, we reduce our stance to neutral. After a strong performance, valuation no longer looks attractive.
Three pair trade ideas
We highlight three pair trade ideas. We would recommend going long the DAX vs. SMI. As we expect near-term data to improve, we think the DAX should outperform the SMI. We also like the DAX vs. the OMX and the FTSE100 vs. the SMI as rotation trades within cyclical and defensive indices, respectively.
Five drivers to shape our country allocation
We identify five drivers to focus on: macro sensitivity, the GS Financial Conditions Index, sector exposure, stock exposure and valuations. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of each market using these criteria.
Total 175,646 0.8822 11,400,663
CALL 93,319 5,718,095
PUT 82,327 5,682,568
CALL 93,319 5,718,095
PUT 82,327 5,682,568
Excellent set up for a nasty down lag. Bulls convninced this is a bull market.
