shooting the moon

If you look at RLGT, a trade was made at $2.20, something like that, about 50c over the previous closing price. Sometimes I think these way out of whack trades are made to conceal new highs or low. In other words, traders are always scanning for new price events. If you put in a dummy trade that conceals new highs or lows, it can be easier to buy/sell if you're not sending new information to the market.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=rlgt
 
Artio is a broken ipo that trades below cash (cash and investments are probably $2.30, something like that. The stock is at $1.96). Plus it's got about $14B of AUM, which you're being paid to own. It's an interesting opportunity.

Of course the AUM is melting faster than the polar caps, but maybe not so fast, here is recent performance:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=BJBIX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=eem&ql=1

The AUM is mostly bond funds, and that won't disappear.

Another doji pick btw.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ART&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18721708062
 
For those wondering what the deal is with Triotech (TRT), here is something.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/744074-billyjoerob/1356361-is-triotech-for-real

I think the chart is good for a few more dollars, but this is a frothy market and TRT is tiny. The recent gains probably have something to do with good results at Freescale, the biggest client.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TRT&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14697914064

Semiconductors in general have not participated much in this rally and could be ready for a big move, looking at the chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^SOX&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=
 
Good sports bettors tend to avoid the big games. There are more inefficiencies in a small college basketball game than in a Lakers-Phoenix game. Likewise tennis bettors prefer obscure women's matches to Djokovic-Murray in the AO final. Of course the biggest problem is concealing all of the small bets, which the bookies don't want to take.

In trading, there is no reason, with a small amount of money to trade, to wade into big markets like index option trading or nat gas futures. In addition, these are zero sum markets with winners and losers. A small trader is much better off in a) non-zero sum markets, or one-sided markets like stocks and b) in smaller markets. In some years, almost anybody can be a winner in the stock market. That is never said about futures markets.
 
My buy stop in PAL was triggered.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAL&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24055846829&a=213437537&listNum=12

This is an interesting chart about which assets do what during rising interest rates (not inflation).

returns-chart.jpg


Palladium right at the top of the list.
 
Quote from billyjoerob:



Strategy is ultimately take advantage of largest advantage, small size. I can get in and out of positions very quickly, which is the advantage of the retail trader. Why not take advantage of that? Second, precommitment, using only buy and sell stops, no discretionary entries and exits. Selection criteria essentally the same - breakouts with bases with some fundamental criteria.

Current portfoliot:

BONT
DK
IDT
MBND
NUGT
REXI
TRT
TPOU.L

http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=BILLLYJOEROBPORT,BONT,DK,IDT,MBND,NUGT,REXI,TRT&ta=0&p=w
More...

I'll post current stocks later, but want to review some of the better and worse positions here.

BONT - closed out with small gain. Still under old highs and no new information to move the stock - generally prefer stocks with new info or new highs.

DK - horrible trade management. Bot at breakout around $27.70, with trailing stop. If I had left the position alone, trailing stop would still be in place. Caught about 1/2 of move. Clearly, just leave good positions alone. Beautiful chart though.

NUGT - bot before breakout. Broke rules, but hit stop. Do think metals and miners will breakout, but no reason to break rules to anticipate move.

TRT, IDT, TPOU.L - at new highs.

I hope this journal will compel me to maintain rules, and avoid buying before breakouts ala NUGT.
 
Quote from billyjoerob:

Artio is a broken ipo that trades below cash (cash and investments are probably $2.30, something like that. The stock is at $1.96). Plus it's got about $14B of AUM, which you're being paid to own. It's an interesting opportunity.

Of course the AUM is melting faster than the polar caps, but maybe not so fast, here is recent performance:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=BJBIX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=eem&ql=1

The AUM is mostly bond funds, and that won't disappear.

Another doji pick btw.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ART&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18721708062
More...

ART breaking out. Good ot $3.
 
ART bought out at $2.75. So it was good to $2.75, not $3.

This is a good example of the difficulty of knowing when to sell. I sold 10% of my position on Tuesday and then the whole move was wiped out before today's buyout.
 
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