Shall I get some tips about useing Machine Learning on trading?

[minmike]

Some of the biggest firms in chicago are completely machine learning driven. Every once in awhile you can find a guy who can do it himself, but usually they have 5-10 phds in a team.

 

[Tim Smith]

I disagree with your second statement. We all started out with no background in anything. Most people can pick up programming if they have the interest. It's probably one of the most accessible fields out there since there are so many free resources.

Trust me, there's programming and there's "programming", self-taught programmers are generally the worst (sloppy, inefficient spaghetti code etc.). And then as @wintergasp pointed out, you're probably also looking at needing a decent chunk of algebra/calculus on top of that.

You can find all sorts of things on the internet, look on YouTube and you can see people showing you step-by-step serious medical procedures. You could watch as many YouTube videos as you liked on triple-heart bypass operations, but you still wouldn't be any good at them because you would be missing the other 99% of the medical training.

Its the same with machine learning and other complex algo trading, you might pick up a bit of programming here and a bit of maths there, but without the rest of the background 99% of people will fail.

As @minmike pointed out, the people who "go it alone" and are successful are generally so because either they've got academic background in the subject, or because they are academically gifted in mathematics etc.

Someone coming on here saying "Nowadays I want to use machine learning on trading" and "shall I get some tips about this？" does not exactly strike me as fitting into one of the categories listed above. The original post just shouted lack of experience and that's why I gave the reply I did.

 

[cf0532]

You can start with Coursera's course on Machine Learning which will take you 12 weeks, assuming you have basics of calculus/algebra (otherwise start with calculus course that takes 8-10 weeks). If you have no knowledge of programming that's probably going to be the hardest, count a good 2-5 months before you're fluent in Python and/or C#.

thanks man; In the fact I have completed Machine learning course on Coursera teached by Mr Andrew Ng; and I can program by Matlab and Python too.
Thanks for your kindness.

 

[cf0532]

I want to use "Neural Networks" to select some situations(up%,vol and so on) in which a big swing is coming;
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Market internals are in my opinion the most powerful tells a market reveals that can get you into the big trend days and more importantly can get you in synch with the institutional buy programs that kick in during major capitulation at major swing lows. If you look hard enough you will see specific market intrenal numbers that repeat when a reversal occurs which kicks in the buy programs sending the market rocketing up on major up legs lasting days/weeks/months.

Thanks for your reply;
Do you mean "Market internals" like what below picture shows(red lines: 15ups and 15downs; black line:6downs-up-6downs):

If it is, I have done this but I have a small question which confusing me that if I now open a long order and when / where should I close the order according to this internals or how shall I confirm it is still in this internals structure?

 

[cf0532]

Machine Learning can forecast anything from volatility to how long it takes me to make spaghetti.

The question of "reliability" is more important when dealing with financial data.

you mean you have use ML on trading, how do you think about it?

 

[wintergasp]

thanks man; In the fact I have completed Machine learning course on Coursera teached by Mr Andrew Ng; and I can program by Matlab and Python too.
Thanks for your kindness.

Oh ok cool.

Learn c sharp, python is good for academics and basics but you still need a real programming language as its hard to solve complex issues fast with a single threaded language like python.

Machine learning is just a component for system selections, focus on algo design first and apply clustering to your systems, then automate the process to constantly have a different system on a weekly or daily basis and
... tada you can use the fancy words machine learning.

 

[wintergasp]

you mean you have use ML on trading, how do you think about it?

Yes machine learning is what i use for the totality of my book

 

[cf0532]

Why do people bother replying why they have zero to add, obviously no one has any credentials. Try NuPic, they have a stock based demo and is one of the better ones. All this "knowledge" on these forums and no one knows a thing. Is ML worth it, if you can find an advantage against the millions of other traders by using it, of course.

Thanks for your information;
I have add NuPic and learn it;

 

[cf0532]

Oh ok cool.

Learn c sharp, python is good for academics and basics but you still need a real programming language as its hard to solve complex issues fast with a single threaded language like python.

Machine learning is just a component for system selections, focus on algo design first and apply clustering to your systems, then automate the process to constantly have a different system on a weekly or daily basis and
... tada you can use the fancy words machine learning.

I have a the basic foundation of C language and I use Matlab to do ML, so I think that is ok for using ML on trading rather than learning C# which would need much time;
I want to use ML to select K bars after which there is a big swing;
Do you have some related experience?

 

[wintergasp]

I have a the basic foundation of C language and I use Matlab to do ML, so I think that is ok for using ML on trading rather than learning C# which would need much time;
I want to use ML to select K bars after which there is a big swing;
Do you have some related experience?

Thats not how you use machine learning. Thats just basic historical simulation.