Serious qn - What's stopping USDJPY trading to 170 or 200?

The 4 hour chart has always been the go-to timeframe among the forex traders. As you can see, the trendline has been breached already. It could still go back up, but that certainty will only diminish as time passes.

upload_2023-11-13_18-56-26.png
 
This happens if a whale breaks BOJ. Very unlikely to happen but not impossible.

pinetboltz said:
ok not to be facetious here, but given USDJPY has remained relatively strong above the 150 level (occasional lil smashes that smacks of desperation notwithstanding, kind of like a random hedge fund whale perhaps getting caught offside and trying to conveniently pass it off as "intervention") - what's stopping it from trading to 170 or 200?

eg if dollar yen can be at 33 year highs, why not a blowout rip to 50, 60, 70 year highs??

crazier things have happened in the financial mkts and regardless of what BoJ says, they are not "omnipotent" (or else why didn't they fix everything already ages ago)

but i guess just to seek all opinions, could anyone enlighten us if there's anything concrete that would stop USDJPY from absolutely blowing out all the stops on the short side and just taking off like a rocket to Mars
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schizo said:
I ain't no follower of Elliott Wave, but there's no mistake in spotting one here. If you made enough, get out when you can. As the saying goes, no pigs will be spared.

WEEKLY

View attachment 327437
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Appears about right although on daily EW looks to be just at the beginning of final wave 5 (and maybe wave 4 hasn't fully completed yet as well) too early IMO to know for sure.

Anyway if this daily then weekly wave 5 completes it just calls for a 3 wave correction, not a big major move down beyond say 146-144 area - at least not below start of original impulsive wave one.

! UJ EWave.png
 
pinetboltz said:
no, i stayed out as the thing felt like a trap
good to hear u got a win out of this one

i'm prob gonna wait until some type of fireworks hits dollar yen, it somehow seems too "convenient" right now
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Just flipped to long at 150.25
SL 149.75
 
SunTrader said:
Agree. Nothing really in the way.

All the Yen pairs I follow appear to be strong, though AUDJPY and NZDJPY have been sideways for the past few days both are still in the upper part of recent range.

BOJ power is a shell of its 1990's self.

A wild card currently is the dysfunctional House of Reps, especially MAGA part, holding up any kind of reasonable continuing gubmint funding bill till next Congress.
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%%
OK;
not sure why you used '' reasonable + gubmint'' on US downgraded whale size debt \ 2 or 3 times downgraded debt.
But I just found out today ''gub''is a slang sort of slang insult used by Ab Aussies for a white person :D:D.I got the mint part LOL
 
schizo said:
Got stopped out on the earlier trade and have just reentered short at 151.37.
SL 151.73
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Just unloaded the short position at 150.67. Not sure I feel all that good about this one, since I gave back nearly 1/3 of the windfall.
 
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