Serious qn - What's stopping USDJPY trading to 170 or 200?

[pinetboltz]

ok not to be facetious here, but given USDJPY has remained relatively strong above the 150 level (occasional lil smashes that smacks of desperation notwithstanding, kind of like a random hedge fund whale perhaps getting caught offside and trying to conveniently pass it off as "intervention") - what's stopping it from trading to 170 or 200?

eg if dollar yen can be at 33 year highs, why not a blowout rip to 50, 60, 70 year highs??

crazier things have happened in the financial mkts and regardless of what BoJ says, they are not "omnipotent" (or else why didn't they fix everything already ages ago)

but i guess just to seek all opinions, could anyone enlighten us if there's anything concrete that would stop USDJPY from absolutely blowing out all the stops on the short side and just taking off like a rocket to Mars

 

[SunTrader]

ok not to be facetious here, but given USDJPY has remained relatively strong above the 150 level (occasional lil smashes that smacks of desperation notwithstanding, kind of like a random hedge fund whale perhaps getting caught offside and trying to conveniently pass it off as "intervention") - what's stopping it from trading to 170 or 200?

eg if dollar yen can be at 33 year highs, why not a blowout rip to 50, 60, 70 year highs??

crazier things have happened in the financial mkts and regardless of what BoJ says, they are not "omnipotent" (or else why didn't they fix everything already ages ago)

but i guess just to seek all opinions, could anyone enlighten us if there's anything concrete that would stop USDJPY from absolutely blowing out all the stops on the short side and just taking off like a rocket to Mars

Agree. Nothing really in the way.

All the Yen pairs I follow appear to be strong, though AUDJPY and NZDJPY have been sideways for the past few days both are still in the upper part of recent range.

BOJ power is a shell of its 1990's self.

A wild card currently is the dysfunctional House of Reps, especially MAGA part, holding up any kind of reasonable continuing gubmint funding bill till next Congress.

 

[tsfx]

ok not to be facetious here, but given USDJPY has remained relatively strong above the 150 level (occasional lil smashes that smacks of desperation notwithstanding, kind of like a random hedge fund whale perhaps getting caught offside and trying to conveniently pass it off as "intervention") - what's stopping it from trading to 170 or 200?

eg if dollar yen can be at 33 year highs, why not a blowout rip to 50, 60, 70 year highs??

crazier things have happened in the financial mkts and regardless of what BoJ says, they are not "omnipotent" (or else why didn't they fix everything already ages ago)

but i guess just to seek all opinions, could anyone enlighten us if there's anything concrete that would stop USDJPY from absolutely blowing out all the stops on the short side and just taking off like a rocket to Mars

Start buying with size and you'll see a top. I'm not kidding. Retail is selling like mad and one by one stops gets triggered upside. NOONE is buying this here long term so the "buying" that you see is pure stop orders (interest) on the upside. Leveraged selling is matched by unleveraged counterparty. Price always moves toward less greed

 

[SunTrader]

Price is what it is and for a good while price has been in HH's and HL's mode. No matter the reason why.

 

[maxinger]

ok not to be facetious here, but given USDJPY has remained relatively strong above the 150 level (occasional lil smashes that smacks of desperation notwithstanding, kind of like a random hedge fund whale perhaps getting caught offside and trying to conveniently pass it off as "intervention") - what's stopping it from trading to 170 or 200?

eg if dollar yen can be at 33 year highs, why not a blowout rip to 50, 60, 70 year highs??

crazier things have happened in the financial mkts and regardless of what BoJ says, they are not "omnipotent" (or else why didn't they fix everything already ages ago)

but i guess just to seek all opinions, could anyone enlighten us if there's anything concrete that would stop USDJPY from absolutely blowing out all the stops on the short side and just taking off like a rocket to Mars

Are you doing countertrend trading and shorting USDJPY and hence suffering losses?

Up it goes to Mars and beyond.
Now it is at a record high.

Soon there will be a reversal pattern.
When? We will need a crystal ball to make the prediction.

 

[piezoe]

ok not to be facetious here, but given USDJPY has remained relatively strong above the 150 level (occasional lil smashes that smacks of desperation notwithstanding, kind of like a random hedge fund whale perhaps getting caught offside and trying to conveniently pass it off as "intervention") - what's stopping it from trading to 170 or 200?

eg if dollar yen can be at 33 year highs, why not a blowout rip to 50, 60, 70 year highs??

crazier things have happened in the financial mkts and regardless of what BoJ says, they are not "omnipotent" (or else why didn't they fix everything already ages ago)

but i guess just to seek all opinions, could anyone enlighten us if there's anything concrete that would stop USDJPY from absolutely blowing out all the stops on the short side and just taking off like a rocket to Mars

You can answer your own questions if you understand why the yen would be sold and the dollar bought. It you don't have any idea why this would occur and what might change to make the dollar less attractive relative to the yen then you shouldn't be involved in forex markets.

 

[SunTrader]

Umm I think OP is bullish, not bearish, on the dollar.

And is just looking to see if others feel the same way.

 

[schizo]

ok not to be facetious here, but given USDJPY has remained relatively strong above the 150 level (occasional lil smashes that smacks of desperation notwithstanding, kind of like a random hedge fund whale perhaps getting caught offside and trying to conveniently pass it off as "intervention") - what's stopping it from trading to 170 or 200?

eg if dollar yen can be at 33 year highs, why not a blowout rip to 50, 60, 70 year highs??

crazier things have happened in the financial mkts and regardless of what BoJ says, they are not "omnipotent" (or else why didn't they fix everything already ages ago)

but i guess just to seek all opinions, could anyone enlighten us if there's anything concrete that would stop USDJPY from absolutely blowing out all the stops on the short side and just taking off like a rocket to Mars

I ain't no follower of Elliott Wave, but there's no mistake in spotting one here. If you made enough, get out when you can. As the saying goes, no pigs will be spared.

WEEKLY

 

[maxinger]

You can answer your own questions if you understand why the yen would be sold and the dollar bought. It you don't have any idea why this would occur and what might change to make the dollar less attractive relative to the yen then you shouldn't be involved in forex markets.

You are right mister.
I have absolutely no idea about those details.
And I don't intend to know it.
But professional writers better know those details.



I just focus on the charts, do Intermarket correlation ships,
and have some macro fundamental knowledge.
And that is good enough for me.

Trading and reasoning / rationalizing don't mix.
But if reasoning /rationalizing is important to you,
by all means, go do it.

 

[pinetboltz]

thx for the inputs, it's bc the chart looks bullish (objectively speaking), with price looking for a breakout esp on the longer timeframe, but given BoJ's comments on kinda protecting the yen etc, one wonders if they would have the wherewithal to act again (and to what extent) after their prev attempt in oct 2022 in defending the 152 level didn't work (as usdjpy traded back up again to major resistance)

eg perhaps they would try again, or try and fail & mkt surges to take out all stops, etc
not impossible that there'd be a "black swan" move to the upside

IG's publicly disclosed ratio is that 85% are positioned short on dollar yen right now, and it's like the adage that if something is too "obvious" to the crowd, maybe it is "obviously wrong"

not to mention many banks' "public" recommendation is for a cap/ fade trade on the dollar yen, which leads one to suspect in private maybe they positioned themselves via forward contracts/ selling accumulators to unsuspecting counterparties etc for levels here at 150-155, then after enough "muppets" had joined the long side on yen at support, they break it in a flush to the downside (eg not the 1st time it's happened, they did something similar on precious metals) in a not-so-innocent move
- but of course, it may be ultimately down to BoJ's financial muscle vs. the gaijin banks' financial muscle behind the scenes. if it were a smaller country economically speaking, the bet would be on the banks winning, but japan is still japan