Sentiment Is Too Bullish

There was no compelling reason for the selloff today. Do should retest 9000 soon enough. The recovery will still be 'v' shaped. The market should be up after the Apple report.

Hard to have a long term bear market when there is no reason for one.
 
Quote from shortie:

isn't going long the hardest thing to do right now? rallies, fails, rallies, fails, rallies, fails... one day the rally will stick. the question is when.
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Do your own "smell test." On intraday rallies are you thinking "this stuff could be turning good" or are you thinking "this is just a small retracement in a downtrend hence sellers will probably emerge". Most of us our conditioned by the sharp rallies to think that any strength can turn into a 80pt ES ramp. That's why gaming sentiment is so important. The best gauge of sentiment? Ourselves.
 
Quote from JamesVU2000:

No one has ever seen anything like this before.
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True. But index wise it's much like summer of 2002. I learned a valuable lesson that year. I was bearish but I kept buying. I never thought the trade could be so severely one sided. Errant thinking.

The only buys I've made this year have been on measured moves into fresh lows where I have wiggle room. Buying counter trend strength in a bear market is a fer sure death. Unfortunately I make the mistake of selling Treasury weakness against macro strength every other day......:)
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Do your own "smell test." On intraday rallies are you thinking "this stuff could be turning good" or are you thinking "this is just a small retracement in a downtrend hence sellers will probably emerge". Most of us our conditioned by the sharp rallies to think that any strength can turn into a 80pt ES ramp. That's why gaming sentiment is so important. The best gauge of sentiment? Ourselves.
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excellent tip!

my sentiment right now: "no way we could breach oct-10 lows in the next several weeks". so to turn it around means we gonna slice right through that level - scary thought.
 
Quote from shortie:

isn't going long the hardest thing to do right now? rallies, fails, rallies, fails, rallies, fails... one day the rally will stick. the question is when.
More...

Nah, going long when indices are down 30+% is the easy thing to do. Cant go much farther can it attitude?

Getting short on a consolidation after that 30% move is the hard trade to make.

Most people have this need to pick tops and bottoms. To them it feels good....until it doesnt work.
 
Quote from shortie:



my sentiment right now: "no way we could breach oct-10 lows in the next several weeks". so to turn it around means we gonna slice right through that level - scary thought.
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Bingo. See my reply to you sir.
 
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