Sentiment Is Too Bullish

P

Pa(b)st Prime

Clearly one sided. ISE levels at the highest in weeks. Talking heads in unanimous agreement that these are "compelling if not generational valuations", the selling is extra exaggerated by "forced redemptions", possible upside earnings surprises via the "low bar", the Bernanke approved pre-election overture for Bailout ll-The Sequel and of course the implicit trader message-it's too big a break not to buy. Problem is the best buying was done 1000 lower. No wiggle room here. Too many single prints below. Just a retest from here is a big percentage move down.

The elephant in the room is the economy. Bottomed? The implosion hasn't even started. Everyone deep down knows it. Government liabilities on the municipal/state levels were excessive in the best of times and institutional investors are getting smoked. The failure risk of municipalities numbering in the hundreds is certain. And quick. This thing is the global domino, geo-political, sociological Apocalypse of two lifetimes. I expect a marginal new low between now and election day. The only macro bull case I can make is the threat of some horrific G-8 coordinated currency devaluation-inevitable, eh-I've no idea what SPX is worth when valued in new Euro-Amero Boulivars......
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Clearly one sided. ISE levels at the highest in weeks. Talking heads in unanimous agreement that these are "compelling if not generational valuations", the selling is extra exaggerated by "forced redemptions", possible upside earnings surprises via the "low bar", the Bernanke approved pre-election overture for Bailout ll-The Sequel and of course the implicit trader message-it's too big a break not to buy. Problem is the best buying was done 1000 lower. No wiggle room here. Too many single prints below. Just a retest from here is a big percentage move down.

The elephant in the room is the economy. Bottomed? The implosion hasn't even started. Everyone deep down knows it. Government liabilities on the municipal/state levels were excessive in the best of times and institutional investors are getting smoked. The failure risk of municipalities numbering in the hundreds is certain. And quick. This thing is the global domino, geo-political, sociological Apocalypse of two lifetimes. I expect a marginal new low between now and election day. The only macro bull case I can make is the threat of some horrific G-8 coordinated currency devaluation-inevitable, eh-I've no idea what SPX is worth when valued in new Euro-Amero Boulivars......
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one of the impossibly rare times we will agree.
 
Quote from IShopAtPublix:

one of the impossibly rare times we will agree.
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BTW ISAP: I follow message board sentiment so intimately that if this post doesn't get any "play" beyond our comments-that's a big tell in itself.
 
I have been thinking the same all week. The talking heads are all acting as though it's water under the bridge. I still hear a tidal wave in the distance. Perhaps this is the agreed upon level for the BIG money to exit. ??
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

BTW ISAP: I follow message board sentiment so intimately that if this post doesn't get any "play" beyond our comments-that's a big tell in itself.
More...

So just out of curiosity, what is your estimate for the max drawdown from S&P500 pk, when the damage is fully done. It's already some ... what -40%+ from it's peak. You think both dow and s&P will hit -90% this time?

I don't think it's impossible that "this time" will be the one, but, hoping (yeah, I know that and a 1 dollar bill won't even get me a cup of java) that the bulls pull out some of their magic trumph cards (even if they are comprised of pixie dust -- all that counts is perception).
 
My official projection for DOW. The candlestick is not the most perfect but you get the point. Index charts are ugly in my opinion but this future for the index is inevitable.
 

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Quote from IShopAtPublix:

My official projection for S&P. The candlestick is not the most perfect but you get the point. Index charts are ugly in my opinion but this future for the index is inevitable.
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We're on the same page. Hope we're not of the crowded opinion........:D

Except for the Dow though the market looks like shit.
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

We're on the same page. Hope we're not of the crowded opinion........:D

Except for the Dow though the market looks like shit.
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Everyone I talk to says the sky is falling, and that the "worst is yet to come".


I've been going long for the past 3 weeks.
 
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