your either in cash or your buying. shorting is silly down here.
Sentiment Is Too Bullish
- Thread starter Pa(b)st Prime
- Start date
This is a buying opportunity of a lifetime, time to go long 7x equity, in the long run leveraged long only investors ends up winning.
I must have missed the post where someone neglected to take responsibility and then blamed their performance on hedge funds. However if you do not believe that forced selling as a result of redemptions and margin calls by prime brokers have not been a major catalyst of the recent violent selloff then your knowledge of market mechanics is severely lacking.
What is "bullish sentiment on the sidelines?" This makes no sense. If you are refering to the reord high levels of cash uninvested, that is only bullish in a contrarian way. By definition, if the cash is on the sidelines, clearly it is not bullish for those whose cash it is, correct?
what I said is just a mathematical fact. 'Net capital redemptions totaled $31 billion in the quarter, also a record.' - HFR
This is less than 50% of one day worth of NYSE trading
Now you can go ahead and blame mutual fund redemptions which is a much bigger industry but to think its all forced selling and margin calls its wishful thinking AT BEST.
The amount of legitimate selling probably trumps forced selling by a ridiculous amount
What I am talking about is people (other than shorts covering and the initiators) buying into these suckers rallies every time there is some primarily cosmetic positive development or announcement. At the bottom of a bear market the recovery is staring you in the face but nobody believes it.
Thank you for proving my point that you are not grasping the fact that this is not a mathematical event but a psychological event. Just as copycat hedge funds mimicked each other's long holdings and attempted to coat-tail performance in this manner, ther reverse was also true in that funds were shorting what others were selling. The bids dried up.
Let me say it another way. I am selling the only Corvette in town and you want to buy it. My boss is a friend of yours and you learn that I will soon lose my job. Will you (a) offer me market price today or (b) wait for my situation to turn desperate so that you can capitalize and lowball me?