Seems liks day trading is all but finished!

[acrary]

From a numbers standpoint, the daytrading range (high - low) for the SP market is averaging 16.6 pts. this year. This is the lowest range since 1997 (13.8) and is 17% lower than last year (20.0).

The two day range (in at todays high or low and out at tomorrow's low or high), has declined by 20.5% from last year (23.8 vs 29.9). Again, it's the lowest since 1997 (21.0).

The followthough ratio (2 day range versus today's range), is at it's lowest level since 1985. (23.8/16.6 = 1.43 vs 2.7/1.9 = 1.42).
Last year it was 1.495 (29.9/20 = 1.495).

The number of trend days (open near high or low and close near low or high), has declined from 10 during the first two months of last year to 6 for this year.

The decline in opportunity seems to be just a statement of observation. Not a statement of perception.

My own plan for March has changed to increase size and shorten my timeframe to 1-2 hours instead of all day (until the followthrough improves).

 

[Ron In-a-sauna]

Quote from slapshot:





I.E. A trader who fades false breakouts and is doing well now - would they think the "market is tougher?" How about short-sellers? It is worse for them?

agreed

 

[BigMike]

Anyone who has been around for more than a couple of years probably realizes that the current state of trading is more "normal" than the past few years have been. Never before has there been a prolonged period where you could buy EVERYTHING and make money, or then switch and sell EVERYTHING and make money. Now the trading is back to normal where a trader's skillset makes money instead of the trader's ability to catch the wave.

My philospohy is to have a stable of angles and to capitalize on whatever is working until it stops working and then adapt. As we are seeing with pairs, OO strategies, MACD crossovers, etc., nothing works forever.

That is all.

 

[slapshot]

Quote from acrary:

From a numbers standpoint, the daytrading range (high - low) for the SP market is averaging 16.6 pts. this year. This is the lowest range since 1997 (13.8) and is 17% lower than last year (20.0).

The two day range (in at todays high or low and out at tomorrow's low or high), has declined by 20.5% from last year (23.8 vs 29.9). Again, it's the lowest since 1997 (21.0).

The followthough ratio (2 day range versus today's range), is at it's lowest level since 1985. (23.8/16.6 = 1.43 vs 2.7/1.9 = 1.42).
Last year it was 1.495 (29.9/20 = 1.495).

The number of trend days (open near high or low and close near low or high), has declined from 10 during the first two months of last year to 6 for this year.

The decline in opportunity seems to be just a statement of observation. Not a statement of perception.

My own plan for March has changed to increase size and shorten my timeframe to 1-2 hours instead of all day (until the followthrough improves).

Great Info - is there a web-site or service that has this? Or is this your personal data tabulation?

Thanks,

Paul

 

[slapshot]

Quote from BigMike:

Anyone who has been around for more than a couple of years probably realizes that the current state of trading is more "normal" than the past few years have been. Never before has there been a prolonged period where you could buy EVERYTHING and make money, or then switch and sell EVERYTHING and make money. Now the trading is back to normal where a trader's skillset makes money instead of the trader's ability to catch the wave.

My philospohy is to have a stable of angles and to capitalize on whatever is working until it stops working and then adapt. As we are seeing with pairs, OO strategies, MACD crossovers, etc., nothing works forever.

That is all.

Thank you.

 

[acrary]

Quote from slapshot:




Great Info - is there a web-site or service that has this? Or is this your personal data tabulation?

Thanks,

Paul

It's from my own tools.
I wish there was a website that posted this stuff.

 

[IndexTrader]

Quote from acrary:

From a numbers standpoint, the daytrading range (high - low) for the SP market is averaging 16.6 pts. this year. This is the lowest range since 1997 (13.8) and is 17% lower than last year (20.0).

The two day range (in at todays high or low and out at tomorrow's low or high), has declined by 20.5% from last year (23.8 vs 29.9). Again, it's the lowest since 1997 (21.0).

The followthough ratio (2 day range versus today's range), is at it's lowest level since 1985. (23.8/16.6 = 1.43 vs 2.7/1.9 = 1.42).
Last year it was 1.495 (29.9/20 = 1.495).

The number of trend days (open near high or low and close near low or high), has declined from 10 during the first two months of last year to 6 for this year.

The decline in opportunity seems to be just a statement of observation. Not a statement of perception.

My own plan for March has changed to increase size and shorten my timeframe to 1-2 hours instead of all day (until the followthrough improves).

Acrary, very, very true.

I trade some 30 variations of 5-6 systems and, frankly as a whole they're all under water for the last 4 mos.
Those figures are even more pronounced in the small and midcap indexes. The "rush" to either buy or sell appears to have gone away, rendering a lot of breakout/follow-thru systems and strategies useless in this environment.

Finding something that not only works in today's market and would not have fallen apart in recent years, appears to be quite a challenge!

 

[acrary]

Take a look at how the ND ranges have changed:

Across the top is the number of days in the trade.
Underneath each number is the total points available for the holding period. The next column is the average (total points / number of trading days)

1 = Daytrade
2 = In at low or high today and out at high or low of tomorrow
3 = In at low or high today and out at 2 day high or 2 day low

 

[BCE]

Quote from rs7:
Well said Chas.
Anyone who thinks that the market is not much more difficult than we had gotten used to (spoiled) during the late 90's is either a genius or a liar.

I agree with Candle and others that this market is still presenting opportunities. If you can adapt to what is happening now, money can be made. And is. But without a doubt it is more difficult than ever in my experience (14 years). While it is true that being able to adapt has always been crucial, the lack of follow through, the meaninglessness of relative strength, and particularly the introduction of decimalization have all combined to make things tougher.

I find that for the most part even my very best (profitable) trades far too often put me through more gut wrenching than I wish to withstand. I find that I need to stay with my conviction that the trade was right and accept that my timing will virtually never be perfect. This causes me to have to expand my acceptable levels of pain. I cannot let myself get stopped out in as tight a range as I used to. And we all know that it ain't no fun having a position go against you no matter what the ultimate outcome.

That is just the way it is. It seems to me that getting stopped out has become more "throwing in the towel" than it ever was. And there is no fun in that ever. I can't complain about my results. My trading has been profitable pretty consistently for the past several months (although I did have a rough go of it for a while before my recent good streak). But it certainly is not a relaxing vocation. And there was a time not so long ago that it was. And there were times when it was apparent the best thing was to not trade at all. To wait for the market to "come to you". But more recently, waiting for just the "better days" and skipping the tough ones would mean never trading. So the willingness and ability to adapt, and perseverance are all we have on our side.

Peace,
rs7

Solid post rs7. That expresses well my own perception of what's up with trading and in the market now. And there were a lot of other good points made here too. Other things that are making trading more difficult than the recent past, it seems, are the participants in this market which seems to be made up principally of hedge funds and professional traders with buy and sell programs kicking in at various times. Also, obviously in the last short while, as was pointed out above, the ranges are a lot tighter and the market jerks one way or the other on the latest rumor/news. But as many here have pointed out, it's ultimately our choice if we choose to do the extra work that's required to find the opportunities which are there. It certainly beats a lot of other professions I've been involved in. And if you stop to think about it we're incredibly fortunate to have any opportunity to do this for a living. Just think of the plight of so many in this world. How could we ever justifiably complain and why would we bother? I certainly appreciate the comradery of other traders in these forums and other places attempting to help each other succeed during these times.

 

[BCE]

Quote from BigMike:

Anyone who has been around for more than a couple of years probably realizes that the current state of trading is more "normal" than the past few years have been. Never before has there been a prolonged period where you could buy EVERYTHING and make money, or then switch and sell EVERYTHING and make money. Now the trading is back to normal where a trader's skillset makes money instead of the trader's ability to catch the wave.

My philosophy is to have a stable of angles and to capitalize on whatever is working until it stops working and then adapt. As we are seeing with pairs, OO strategies, MACD crossovers, etc., nothing works forever.

That is all.

Very good point. There was the secular bear market from the mid '60's to 1981 where the Dow basically went nowhere. Here's a link from Yahoo with weekly prices during this time frame http://table.finance.yahoo.com/d?a=0&b=24&c=1964&d=11&e=25&f=1981&g=w&s=^dji But even then, as you can see, there was movement within the ranges and opportunities as some traders obviously did very well.