Section 7

niko said:
If you learn to scratch fear of entry diminishes greatly.

And a question. What is the difference between 1 point loss in an open position and a 1 point loss in a closed one, is the first one not a loss?
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Well, in the open position the 1 point loss is unrealized. If the reason for entry is still valid price going against you need not be a reason to exit - unless of course one has a scratching strategy that says that over the long run, scratching makes you more money than taking a full stop.

I find it difficult to know that I was wrong based on 4 ticks or even 8 ticks of adverse price movement. It's easier for me to see "levels" (like previous high or similar, often at least 5 points away) where I clearly know I was wrong. I do see that there might be merit in not taking any chances and scratch/reenter instead. If this is better or not would depend on how many scratches you can fit in a full stop and the relation between number of scratches and winning trades as compared to the relation between full stops and winning trades (phew...).

I need to ponder this for a while. Thanks for asking.
 
Prep for Wednesday.

20140409-NQ-15m-prep.png


FOMC minutes at 2:00pm today. I hope that doesn't put a blanket on the market.
 
Wednesday recap.

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There's only one word needed to describe the session for today: range.

Another good day to practice patience.
 
Thursday recap.

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Not a good session for me as I found it difficult to concentrate. I've started to test some scratching strategies (removed from the chart above as it only adds clutter).

I don't write much hindsight analysis to the charts I post as I think they are self explanatory. Today was not as range bound as yesterday but still a slow and indecisive market with a lot of back and forth "action". As I write this price has inched it's way down through support at 60 to 45 but by then I had already stopped for the day.
 
trip said:
Not a good session for me as I found it difficult to concentrate. I've started to test some scratching strategies (removed from the chart above as it only adds clutter).
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I wondered if you'd be in chat today as I know that at times it can be hard to concentrate with what I'm seeing and comparing it to the comments made about trades taken, something is faltering, looks good, etc. As db says, trading is not a team sport, but the chat can be helpful.

If you figure out a sweet spot for scratching, please share. I've been working on that too. Trying to determine what is too close for entry (to not be swept into trades that don't go anywhere) as well as how much room to give it once you are in.
 
gears said:
If you figure out a sweet spot for scratching, please share. I've been working on that too. Trying to determine what is too close for entry (to not be swept into trades that don't go anywhere) as well as how much room to give it once you are in.
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I agree with some of the observations you made in your journal today.

But - thinking about scratching quickly becomes somewhat abstract and a fairly theoretical exercise (as in useless), at least it does for me, right now.

What I really want to do is exit as soon as I know I'm wrong. When do I know I am wrong? Is that really the same thing as exiting with as few adverse ticks as possible? No. I like to use a previous swing high/low (on a tick chart as it is now) as the "logical" place to put a stop as that is a level I would expect price to respect if I'm right. That's mostly more than a few ticks away.

It also depends on context. A retrace can be one of them nice arcs where price just swings around without much going back and forth - or it can be a small congestion area where price spends several minutes in a 1-3 point range before continuing in it's original direction. It can also be a combination of both. All these instances need to be treated differently as I see it, it can't be done mechanically. In the first case a tight stop is possible and you can move it to break even fairly quickly, in the second case you'll be scratching like a madman unless you give price some leeway.

Just my thoughts right now. They will change, of that I am sure. :cool:

I have my platform set to enter with an OCO order with a 40 point target and 5 point stop, and I manually adjust the stop directly after entry, and the target as price moves.
 
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