Yeah it probably IS close to 100% for intraday traders with no edge, due to significant transaction costs.
"The average day trader loses money by a considerable margin after adjusting for transaction costs."
Scientist discovered why most traders lose ...
- Thread starter Saxio
- Start date
Yeah it probably IS close to 100% for intraday traders with no edge, due to significant transaction costs.
"The average day trader loses money by a considerable margin after adjusting for transaction costs."
Avoid technical analysis. Focus on an information edge. Reading charts is too basic and gives too many false positives.
So long as you know those people are benefitting from the food banks Amazon users so proudly donate to, while Bezos has more money than he can ever spend
You can get up to 500:1 leverage on futures intraday at AMP.
Last edited:
Lets see what Amazon currently pay in the UK in their fulfillment centers:
- Day Shift: £9.70 to £10.80 per hour (dependent on location)
- Night Shift: £11.21 to £12.76 per hour
- Overtime: £14.55 per hour up to £21.60 per hour
Some skilled jobs don't even pay £21.6 per hour overtime, many skilled office jobs you are expected to sometimes work a bit extra for no extra compensation.
No one working full time on the above basic pay should need to use a food bank, if they do it is not because of Amazon but because of poor life choices. Like taking on too much debt because they want to live like they earn £100K+ a year. They end up drowning in interest payments and cant afford to eat.
And if anyone cant afford to eat because decent housing is so expensive then blame the Central Banks and Governments for pushing up house prices and rents and general inflation with zero interest rates.
Last edited:
So how does one determine exactly which intraday traders are trading with no edge?
Give it three years, anyone day trading stocks after that much time probably had an edge.
But maybe not going forward, maybe they can only make money intra day during periods of high volatility and if the next three years are low vol they might struggle.
You can only really talk in hindsight, if someone made money for the last 3 years as a day trader, they probably had an edge.
But thats no garantee they will have an edge over the next three years.
That's a good question. From my experience, this includes all guys whose methods where they have no information/speed advantage, so you can imagine this includes most TA, quant intraday "strategies". I work at a fund where we do allocate some money for prop trades; in the past 6years, 100% of the quants (about 15 of them over time) who tried intraday trades, stocks or futures, had failed. Only guy who's netting a profit, but under performing against actual rate of inflation, is basically running a market making program where the IT budget (needed for speed) eats up most of the profit.
Intra day is hard. You have to be selective otherwise transaction costs will get you.
In some markets I only take a handful of intra day trades per month.
One thing i have noticed is that lately my transaction costs are much lower, because volatility is so high. And also the index values are so high. (NQ at 14000 is a lot cheaper to trade than NQ at 4000). I can trade fewer contracts for the same risk and reward.
My automated intra day stratagies are profitable but not outstanding, i would say they have Sharpe ratio of about 1.5 after costs and wont scale to making more than 2 or 3 million per year, as some of the markets i trade aren't the most liquid.
That share ratio is assuming perfect execution and i don't make mistakes. I often want to override my system during losing streaks and that will degrade long term performance.
I have no idea if my edges will hold up over the next X years. I suppose nobody does.
What I should have asked is how can one tell - which intraday traders are trading with no edge and which are trading with an edge?
I don't think one can simplistically presume the ones losing have no edge and the ones winning do.