Scientist discovered why most traders lose ...

[JamesJ]

I believe there is hardly any edge in intraday trading using known strategies such as TA in any asset class, foremost in highly efficient random markets such as forex.
This techniques might work in crypto but i don't know.

Imo you may are better off waiting for special situations whicj require some decision making outside the box such as trading GME or stocks after huge news or comms after shocks.
These are situations where the usual algos wont be in place and more human trading (by losing daytraders) gives opportunities to winners. But you have to be there and ready when those windows of opportunity occur and you need to be able to trade quick.

 

[tayte]

What I should have asked is how can one tell - which intraday traders are trading with no edge and which are trading with an edge?

I don't think one can simplistically presume the ones losing have no edge and the ones winning do.

Guys with no information/speed advantage = no edge.

 

[Millionaire]

Guys with no information/speed advantage = no edge.

You don't need an information advantage as long as you believe markets are inefficient.

eg. A news event comes out. Market often jumps up 100 ticks only to reverse and close down 200 ticks (or vice versa). LOL. The markets even in 2021 still don't process information efficiently.

 

[tayte]

You don't need an information advantage as long as you believe markets are inefficient.

We probably have different interpretations around "information" and "advantage" haha. But if you're making money, then all is good! Have a great 2021

 

[Millionaire]

We probably have different interpretations around "information" and "advantage" haha. But if you're making money, then all is good! Have a great 2021

Intra day is hard. Like i said my intra system only has Sharpe around 1.5, I wish it was 3.0 then i would print money with low drawdowns.

Rentec Mediallion can do it, short term trading, not quite day trading, but holding for a few days and they must have a sharpie of around 3. So it must be possible for a small account that can be way more agile than a $10 billion dollar fund like Medallion.

 

[tayte]

Rentec Mediallion can do it, short term trading, not quite day trading, but holding for a few days and they must have a sharpie of around 3.0. So its possible.

Hmm I thought it was common knowledge that Medallion's all about latency arb, i.e. speed advantage, and they've been suffering due to not exactly staying at the top of the IT arms race.

 

[Millionaire]

Hmm I thought it was common knowledge that Medallion's all about latency arb, i.e. speed advantage, and they've been suffering due to not exactly staying at the top of the IT arms race.

I think average hold time is 2 days:

This guy spent time interviewing the guys at Rentec, the video is cued to start at the best bit:

 

[SunTrader]

Hmm I thought it was common knowledge that Medallion's all about latency arb, i.e. speed advantage, and they've been suffering due to not exactly staying at the top of the IT arms race.

If up +76% in 2020 is suffering (3rd best year ever) let me get some of that.

 

[Millionaire]

If up +76% in 2020 is suffering (3rd best year ever) let me get some of that.

So that would be $7.6 Billion in profits. Mind boggling.

 

[7out]

You can get up to 500:1 leverage on futures intraday at AMP.

Yes, but the discussion was about stock market trading, not futures.