Saltynuts's trend following journal

SunTrader said:
True. But you seem to be positing someone won't have a plan if they don't sim trade or just because they do sim trade they will have a plan. As well that they won't get punched in the mouth as long as they have a plan and have sim traded first.

If someone wants to learn to swim they can watch all the instructional videos they can get their hands on but until they step or better yet jump into the pool they will never really know how to do it.
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I'd compare it more to swimming in shallow waters before jumping off in the deep end. But you are right, just because you sim trade doesn't mean you have a plan.

Utilising sim trading right, as in testing out trading ideas and going through the motions, following your rules and discovering information about your trading style such as maximum drawdown, expectancy and the SQN rating of your system can all be a very smart idea before starting blowing your hard earned dough in the real markets.
 
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Saltynuts said:
Oh I follow you SunTrader, the multiplier is 5. Was just reporting the points to keep it simpler. But I'm stopping this anyways - their paper trading platform SUCKs.
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Why do you say that their paper trading platform sucks?

I'm asking because I'm using them every day and I have a different opinion than yours.
 
Saltynuts said:
Oh I follow you SunTrader, the multiplier is 5. Was just reporting the points to keep it simpler. But I'm stopping this anyways - their paper trading platform SUCKs.
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So you mean to tell me that during all this time you have been chiming in on everyone's futures trading, you had no clue what futures were?
I am taken aback.

Sim trading has it's place but only to a degree. It has it's place in helping you determine how much heat you can take financially before you realize your "system" no longer works without denting your wallet. When you go live the "ow" factor kicks in and you get to test your mettle. My latest experience was when I went long YM at 24,020 about 2 weeks ago? The thing dropped to near my 200 point stop. I bailed, lost $800. Meanwhile if I had followed my plan (through swinging it) I could have made a profit. But that is the problem with going from sim to live to sim to live to sim to live...

You start to lose track of what you can stomach.

I have gone back to 99% sim for the last 2 months and it has been gut-wrenching. I have lost my way with my plan BECAUSE I went back to sim. The issue is not the platform or datafeed, the problem is me. But it is what I needed to do to come to grips with this new-found volatility. I am taking time to adjust to it, determine how much I need in my real account to survive the swings, and what kind of market we are now in in 2018. It is certainly a spritely one! Still working on it, but I have time.

And you are going to find the same thing in your journey.

I would recommend listening to the advice you see typed on the forum by the "big dogs", you know, the one with tens of thousands of posts. Don't become a "Tanti-lite".
 
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rb7 said:
Why do you say that their paper trading platform sucks?

I'm asking because I'm using them every day and I have a different opinion than yours.
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I thought I put it above - in the paper trade account their bars on the chart would not automatically update. And when I tried to do it manually half the time it wouldn't work. Plus the prices shown on the charts were not the current prices - when I would place a market order I'd get a price WAY away from where it was shown on the bars. Yours might work just fine, could just be mine is screwy.
 
Overnight said:
So you mean to tell me that during all this time you have been chiming in on everyone's futures trading, you had no clue what futures were?
I am taken aback.

Sim trading has it's place but only to a degree. It has it's place in helping you determine how much heat you can take financially before you realize your "system" no longer works without denting your wallet. When you go live the "ow" factor kicks in and you get to test your mettle. My latest experience was when I went long YM at 24,020 about 2 weeks ago? The thing dropped to near my 200 point stop. I bailed, lost $800. Meanwhile if I had followed my plan (through swinging it) I could have made a profit. But that is the problem with going from sim to live to sim to live to sim to live...

You start to lose track of what you can stomach.

I have gone back to 99% sim for the last 2 months and it has been gut-wrenching. I have lost my way with my plan BECAUSE I went back to sim. The issue is not the platform or datafeed, the problem is me. But it is what I needed to do to come to grips with this new-found volatility. I am taking time to adjust to it, determine how much I need in my real account to survive the swings, and what kind of market we are now in in 2018. It is certainly a spritely one! Still working on it, but I have time.

And you are going to find the same thing in your journey.

I would recommend listening to the advice you see typed on the forum by the "big dogs", you know, the one with tens of thousands of posts. Don't become a "Tanti-lite".
More...


Chiming in on everyone's futures trading? Like "nice call!" or "good job!"? Other than that I've been asking a lot of questions (and took a lot of heat - people said "just start trading" - hence this thread lol). Can't think of much other "chiming in" I've been doing.

And of course I know what futures are, dude. Why did you conclude I didn't? Because I didn't include the 5x multiplier? The reason I didn't is simply because its a waste of time to do so if I just want to see my % up or down.

On the gut wrenching thing, I totally understand! Even though today I was out a total of $20 (maybe $40 with commissions), as I was only trading 1 share of SPY, I wanted desparately the markets to swing in my favor.

Can't you just try trading 1 SPY share as well? Or do you consider it not a good proxy for the futures you want to trade?

Thanks.
 
Saltynuts said:
OK, set up a paper account on IB. Going to just try following trends I see. Trend up, I'm long. Trend down, I'm short. Get out whenever trend ends. Will probably trade YM mostly. Will look for best trends switching between the different candle bars IB provides on their little screen in the middle (30 sec, 1 min, 5 min, 15 min).

First trade - sold 24144. Currently at 24075 or lower - feeling good so far!

If anyone has any suggestions, I'm all ears.

When I win, my salty nuts for everyone!!!!
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Here are some thoughts and questions to ask yourself:

A trading instrument has a daily trading range. Prices start from the open and continue to the close. Is there a way to determine an likely up day from a down day early enough to take advantage of it? Does it even matter to have a sense of overal intraday direction for certain types of trades?

Looking at many intraday charts, you are likely to find several common occurances. A quick move to the average daily range from the open, a slow move to the average daily range from the open, a reversal, and a trading range on the both sides of the open. In each one of these situations, with the chart in front of you, can you construct a profitable trading plan? Are there any ways to give you an edge in determining how likely one of the four occurances are beforehand?

Looking at the full days worth of a intraday chart, mark your optimal entries, stops, and exits. How many worthwhile trades did you find? Is there a concentration of these trades according to time of day? For each one of the common occurances mentioned earlier, is there a different optimal entry method? Are there any frequent commonalities with the various reversal points?

As prices move throughout the trading day, you may notice varying levels of activity. In addition, sometime lots of activity occurs with little price movement, and sometimes there is lots of activity with exaggerated price movement. Does analyzing this tick action have some predictive value for a trade? Can this information be used to help with exit, stop, and possible entries? What are possible re-occuring causes for these changes in activity?

In analyzing the above what is the best time frame to use for your charts? Do you even need charts for intraday trading?

It may blow your mind, but there are very profitable intraday traders out there that don’t use charts. These traders are not always right, but an overwhelmingly large number of their trades are done with a positive expectation.

I hear my cell door opening. Got to go for another one of my therapy treatments. Good luck!
 
Saltynuts said:
Chiming in on everyone's futures trading? Like "nice call!" or "good job!"? Other than that I've been asking a lot of questions (and took a lot of heat - people said "just start trading" - hence this thread lol). Can't think of much other "chiming in" I've been doing.

And of course I know what futures are, dude. Why did you conclude I didn't? Because I didn't include the 5x multiplier? The reason I didn't is simply because its a waste of time to do so if I just want to see my % up or down.

On the gut wrenching thing, I totally understand! Even though today I was out a total of $20 (maybe $40 with commissions), as I was only trading 1 share of SPY, I wanted desparately the markets to swing in my favor.

Can't you just try trading 1 SPY share as well? Or do you consider it not a good proxy for the futures you want to trade?

Thanks.
More...

High beta dow stocks are easier to trade during regular hours than futures or related indexes for newer traders. Paper trading can be overall positive or overall negative. One of the keys is accountability. Starting a trading journal is a great idea and involving your significant other can in some cases be beneficial as well. You have been getting a lot of great feedback with your posts but ultimately, only you know yourself. The keys include maintaining discipline, getting into good habits, and always be willing to learn.
 
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