Saki's Forex Reversal Journal

Quote from KS96:

Where do you see that?
Looks convinced to me...
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One thing I can observe, although don't put much stock in, is the ability to see price movements as either bullish or bearish. There are things to look for. Upward spiking bars which end in the midde or the lower end of each bar I find bearish and bullish bars are vice versa. The problem with this knowledge is you never know when it will be wrong or when this observation will go sour, probably as soon as you enter your position. Some people call this "tape reading." But in retrospect, it tells alot about a move which already happened.

That is why I said the market didn't looked convinced. You notice yesterday after I closed my positions the dollar did indeed make it back to its upper range. It was this small clue which compelled me to exit. Not saying its right, but its another way to guage the state of the market.
 
hi there sakimonohito

I am new to trading forex and unfortunately im not having any luck and need some one to help me or do you know of any good signal service out there which performs results.

I have tried a few services but they are bogus, if you can help me or tell me of a trading system thats worth buying or leasing let me know.

im not much of a technical person.

any guidance would be much appreciated.......
 
Quote from hitman505:

hi there sakimonohito

I am new to trading forex and unfortunately im not having any luck and need some one to help me or do you know of any good signal service out there which performs results.

I have tried a few services but they are bogus, if you can help me or tell me of a trading system thats worth buying or leasing let me know.

im not much of a technical person.

any guidance would be much appreciated.......
More...

Subscribe to my thread. Everytime I post a trade, you will know. If you think my results are decent, you can follow along if you like.

I wouldn't pay anybody for signals. I once subscribed to a forex service but they were so bad I was making more money by guessing on my own!

Save your money for your margin calls you will probably need it if you are a new trader.:D
 
Hey Saki,

Looking at the GBPUSD this morning I had the 1/8 line and the S1 together but they didn't hold. Curious if you have the same numbers now (I have pivots set to 7 in Alpari).
 

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Quote from WarEagle:

Hey Saki,

Looking at the GBPUSD this morning I had the 1/8 line and the S1 together but they didn't hold. Curious if you have the same numbers now (I have pivots set to 7 in Alpari).
More...

yeah, that's the right setup. Because the s2 is right on the -2/8ths, I would consider that the best risk reward trade on the chart. If its wrong the stop would be just a few ticks below. I would set 2 trades on that chart, one at s1 and one at s2.


Any luck with the backtest?
 
Before I can test anything I have to get these numbers with some consitency. Just since the time I posted my previous chart, the MM numbers have shifted. In that chart I have the 1/8 line at 1.7975, right next to S1. Now that the market has moved lower, the 1.7975 level is no longer given an MM value, but the numbers have widened, with the new lines at the next numbers out, 1.8005 (7/8) and 1.7944 (6/8). The levels are the same as other previous MM lines, but they are not as narrow, now that the range has expanded.

I do not have a clue as to how the MM's are calculated, even after having read some documentation on them, so I don't understand the criteria for changing the levels at a given time. But even if I did, I think testing this would be extremely difficult, since levels can change intraday, causing signals to appear and dissappear in hindsight. That would make any trades taken difficult to verify after the fact and will be misleading if you look for trades at the end of the day, just as it was with the dynamic pivots. For example, a backtest would have a trade at the S1 based on the earlier chart, but in looking at it now you would not see that trade since there are currently no MMs at the S1 level.

Any thoughts?
 

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Hi Wareagle,

You're a real sport for even entertaining the thought of trying to backtest this system. most people I have spoken to about it said exactly what you just realized, the shifting of the mm levels makes a backtest extremely difficult. I don't know the first thing about coding so we are definetly getting nowhere fast when it comes to backtesting. That is why I wanted to do some forward testing as it is really the only way.

I think it works quite well, the only problem is, of course, when to not use the system...

One solution is to use a momentum indicator in addition to the pivots. when price returns from the level and there is a momentum validation, you could use any kind of crossover system for this filter, you could enter and set your stop just below the mm line at which the pivot level was.

Another solution, which I prefer actually, is to only trade the crosses. Take a look at eur/gbp eur/cad even just slow moving aud/usd. Granted they don't move quite as much as the majors but I think they are more likely to range than the majors do, which is where this system shines.

I will have a 3 month break starting in December where I can do a vigilant test of this system. For now, I am just catching a few moves here and there and I am more than happy with the results.

Btw, you do have to set your stops below the -2/8ths to be trading my suggested system. Stops can be a bit wide was was the case with the GBP chart you posted.
 
The 1.7881 s2 held perfectly btw....up 30 pips now. It is now the 5/8ths of the bigger frame.

Wareagle,
I have attached an excel version of the murrey math system. perhaps this will help you with the math aspect for backtesting...
 

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Saki,

Would you please go over the numbers and highlights of each section from your previous attachment. Pardon my ignorance on the matter. Also, could you explain how currencies work over a long period of time--i.e. 1-2 years. I'm not sure what to look for but my intent is to get long or short on key medium-longterm reversals and traps. Actually, i don't even know what to call it in currencies and don't know if it possible to have such an approach. I'd like to utilize about 5% of my capital in a directional currency trade. Thanks.
 
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