Saki's Forex Reversal Journal

Thanks Saki that makes sense.

I have seen people trade off of S/R successfully without using much else, so it makes sense to me that if you have multiple S/R numbers lining up your odds of it holding would increase. I have never looked closely at Murrey Math because of how it was marketed and I don't know how the lines are calculated so I am not sure how significant they are.

I think the best thing would be to test the idea, but in Metatrader only the current pivot is plotted, so there is no way to see what things looked like on a previous day. If I can find some code for Murrey Math for TradeStation I might be able to throw something together to test it. My pivots in TS plot the new lines each day but leave the old plots on previous days.

As to your dynamic trendlines, are they updated as new highs and lows are made? If so, they may not be useful in realtime.
 
Hi Wareagle,

Murrey math is based on the high and low price for the past 64 bars. Then instead of using an average of price like pivots, the closest natural square is matched and an 8 octave frame is created. I try to sell above the 7/8ths frame and buy below the 1/8ths frame.

The pivot idea just sort of came to me one day while trying out the metatrader pivot indicators. I thought, gee, the open of London seems like the perfect time to set the open of each day, why not try it as a pivot time. It's been working really well for the past two weeks.

Btw, there are metatrader versions of pivots which plot into the past and stay on the chart, I just don't use one as it serves no major purpose as the murrey math frame shifts anyways.

The autotrendlines do move in real-time so perhaps you are right, any correlation to the murreymath lines would be coincidental and serve no rational basis for a price reversal. Thanks for the sobering reminder of my "gooly gee" enthusiasm.

If you could run a backtest on the correlation between pivots and murrey math that would be really cool. Murey math is available for tradestation, I am certain of it.

Embrace the murrey math lines in spite of your doubts about their messenger. I have:D
 
Open Trades:
10k Short USD/CHF 1.2690 Limit 1.2570
10k Buy EUR/USD 1.2235 Limit 1.23 Stops on Monday...



Closed Trades:
10k Short AUD/USD .7735 Limit .7675 +60
10k Short EUR/USD 1.2435 Exit 1.2370+65
10k Long USD/CHF 1.2500 Exit 1.2540+40
10k Short AUD/USD .7735 Exit .7685 +45
20k Long USD/JPY Limit 110 +90
10k Short AUD/USD .7735 Exit .7565+170
10k Long USD/CHF 1.2505 Exit 1.2710 +205
10k Short EUR/USD 1.2435 Exit 1.2170 +265
10k Long EUR/USD 1.2193 Limit 1.2270+77
10k AUD/USD .7533 Exit .7570+37
10k Long AUD/USD .7533 Exit .7580+47
10k Long USD/CAD 1.1893 Exit 1.1975+82
10k Long EUR/USD 1.2193 Exit 1.2291+98
10k Long USD/CAD 1.1893 Exit 1.1899+6
10k Long USD/CHF 1.2578 Stop 1.2509 -69
10k Short EUR/USD 1.2293 Exit 1.2350 +43
10k Short EUR/USD 1.2577 Exit 1.2518+59
10k Short GBP/USD 1.8468 Exit 1.8420+48
10k Short EUR/USD 1.2540 Exit 1.2478+62
20k Short GBP/USD 1.8400 Exit 1.8390 +20
10k Short EUR/USD 1.2540 Exit 1.2277+263
10k Sell USD/CHF 1.2630 Stop 1.2705-75
Model Account Balance: 3578
 
Regarding the following post:

"take a look at this indicator. it seems to be a constant adjusting pivot point indicator. i haven't had a chance to look too deeply into it, but i think its pretty accurate. could be an excellent scalping tool for forex. sell resistance, buy support and take profits at the pivot. its for metatrader4 in case you're not familiar.

by strange coincidence there is a vendor who uses a system with an indicator called dynamic pivots. curious indeed =)

Attachment: dynpivots.zip"


Would anyone be willing/able to translate the above referenced MT4 indicator into a TS eld, an eSignal efs, or an Ensign DYO?

Thanks in advance.

Rick
 
Saki,
For the Monday open trade:
10k Short USD/CHF 1.2690 Limit 1.2570

The TP (take profit) is 1.2570, which is 120 pips.


What about the SL ( stop loss)?

thanks.
 
Saki,

Before I can try to compare previous days I need to make sure we are working off the same numbers. Since you had to remove your charts I don't have the pivot numbers that you used for the past couple of days. Here is a pic of my numbers for Thursday and Friday in the GBPUSD. The crosses are the pivots and the dashed lines are the MM numbers...both are labled on the chart.

I am starting my pivot calculations from 4am US CT which if I have the subtraction right should be the same as 10am CET. I can not get it to match up with my pivots in MT however, so I don't know where I am going wrong. Let me know whether or not these numbers match up with yours.

The Murrey Math indicator that I found for TS looked the same as in MT once I got the inputs correct. Once I get the pivots correct I will worry about the MM part.

Thanks
 

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WarEagle,

My S1 from Friday was 1.8033, not 1.8045 as your pivots indicate. Perhaps I was wrong about the timezone, I am using the strategybuilderfx.com version of Metatrader so it might be based on GMT, not CET--I can't check now since the market is closed.

Try shifting your pivots to 10 am GMT and see if they match friday's screenshot.

The low for the day on GBP printed at 16:00 Metatrader time. What time do you have for that 30 minute bar?

Here is Fridays chart to compare to yours.
 

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Quote from tdl2200:

Saki,
For the Monday open trade:
10k Short USD/CHF 1.2690 Limit 1.2570

The TP (take profit) is 1.2570, which is 120 pips.


What about the SL ( stop loss)?

thanks.
More...

Wait until Monday...sometimes I don't have a clear indication until 1 day after my system signals an entry.

The market is clearly trying to bottom but the upward thrust has been too much too soon. My system cycle is on a buy mode, but price has yet to confirm. That is why there isn't a stop yet.
 
It would seem that the 2am CT bar (0130 in TS) is what MT is using to get those numbers. I am able to get the same pivot as you (1.8115) but our S1 is still different. I get 1.8047 vs your 1.8033. I worked backwards through the formula for S1 (2*Pivot - Yesterday_High) and I get a high value of 1.8182 to get 1.8047 (which is the high of my 2am bar and the highest high for the day). I would need a high of 1.8197 to get an S1 of 1.8033, which does not correspond to any of the bar highs that I have on the 15th. Looking at your screenshot, it would appear that you have that as a high, so its likely our data is slightly different (I use Alpari for MT). That would explain the S/R numbers being off by 5-10 pips. Perhaps it would not make much difference execpt in interpretation of two lines being "close". Are you using a rule for how close the pivots have to be to the MM numbers to consider it valid?

I also noticed in your screenshot that you have a gap in the data just before the daily high is made (circled in my screenshot). Perhaps that contributes to the difference as well. In the Alpari MT, I do not have that gap.
 

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Wareagle,

MT4 is down now so I can't load the alpari quote feed. I will try again on Monday. I don't understand how a few hours of data, not at the time of pivot calculation can affect the pivot price. Strange
 
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