Saki's Forex Reversal Journal

I was away from my computer, but not away from trading. I bagged two winners with the reversal system this week.

USD/JPY B 102.05 Limit 103.18 +113
USD/CHF S 1.1500 Limit 1.1405+93

Charts are annotated below.
 

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Sometimes her majesty is a cruel cruel bitch! That's -255 in two weeks from her. The previous three months were more than 700 pips without a loss in sight. She giveth and she takes...ahh but she is mine afterall!:(
 

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I awoke to find the asian markets full of vigor this a.m. The yen is screaming like an bloated pig and she's oozing at all orfices, just like the ones in anime classic, "Spirited Away." We are at a crucial inflection point according to my charts. Either we bounce here, or the medium term top is in for the year.

My CCI gave me some angst as prices hovered below and above the +/-200 level and didn't re-enter the channel for many hours. The probelm was that I didn't wait for the re-entry and thus my entries are a bit premature.

I have decided that it is better to be alive than to be right, taking heed from my recent readings by Naipaul, see my quote below...

I'm using MML frame failure levels as my stops(the levels at which the MML system conceeds it is wrong). I know this will cut down on successful trades, but it will prevent a 5 month drawdown like the one I am mired in now:mad:

Open positions
USD/JPY S 103.85 Limit 103.12 Stop 104.35
EUR/USD B 1.3340* Limit 1.3420 Stop 1.3243
USD/CHF S 1.1500 Limit 1.1362 Stop 1.1537

*The real CCI entry was 1.3305, but like I said I was a bit premature!

Here is the USD/JPY entry on my chart.
 

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Well, what started out so promising this year has turned into a complete wash. With these series of trades, all profits from the first half of the year have been erased. I have run up my account more than 4 fold only to drain it back down to a pittance!

Still holding my USD/CHF(1.2500) EUR/GBP*(.6875) trades for equilibrium.

Looking at going back to the Daimyo over the CCI too. The CCI becomes very static on heavy trending days, the daimyo just keeps going with the trend, this prevents premature entries.

At the end of the year, my experience is that stops are near impossible to trade without.

This really pisses me off as I thought I had found a way around the stop running. I thought my system would thrive on that, but the timing just isn't good enough. If I traded blindly from a chart with just a trendline, I would be long dollars now and there would be no issue of timing. As a contrarian by nature I hate buying breakouts, it usually doesn't work anyways!

The whole point of a trading journal is to find what works and what doesn't. I admit I am an emotional trader, one of the sins of trading is to get too emotional. But I just don't care about this rule. I want my trades to feel special, as though I have made a method that makes money and which I am proud of. So I can't just buy breakouts like the rest of the madding crowd, I am determined to buy lows and sell highs. I am not going to give up on this.

So from tommorrow I will papertrade for the next month. I will start with a model account of only 2k and trade 10k lots. I will take no more than 3 positions at a time. I will always post a stop with all my trades.

Attached is a EUR/USD comparison of CCI and Daimyo signals. Daimyo has yet to form a buy signal today, CCI had one already and it was crap!
 

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1)Look to buy/sell when Daimyo re-enters the +/-100 channel

2)Check to see if the 50 period bollinger-fibo has been pierced.

3)Reference the 64 trading day high low cycle in Murrey Math

4)Find a trading frame which fits the 64 day trading cycle.

5)Establish the stop loss 5 ticks outside the frame.

5a)If the stop loss is too large using MM an alternate stop loss is ATR*2

6)The target is the 4/8ths line of the frame.





Starting Balance 2,000

GBP/USD B 1.9269 Limit 1.9390+ 121

Using Daimyo re-entry into channel as entry for version 1.3
 

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I have added one more indicator. After many days of consideration. I was fighting it the whole time as I don't want to filter my signals any more than possible.

When the "Heiken-Ashi Helper" pierces the oversold overbought line, there is a strong chance a daily top is in place. I wait for confirmation for Daimyo for the sell and check to see that the Fibo-BB has been pierced, and then I enter.

The last trade confirms this too. I didn't post after Monday because I am getting burnt out from trading now. I am feeling the wear and tear of not trading with stops. That's why I am paper trading, to regain my confidence and try to re-discover the essence of my system.

The indicators I choose are just a visual proxy for my decisions, I have forgotten about this cognitive abstraction.



Account update
(assume one dollar for each pip)

Closed Trades
10k GBP/USD B 1.9269 Limit 1.9390+ 121
10k USD/CHF S 1.1515 Exit 1.1484 +29
10k GBP/USD B 1.9048 Exit 1.9176 +128
Closed Balance
2278

Open Trades
10k USD/CHF S 1.1623 Limit 1.1474 Stop 1.1687
 

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