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Saki's Forex Reversal Journal
- Thread starter sakimonohito
- Start date
Hi everybody. Back from an amazing meditative vacation in Thailand, Cambodia and Laos. Now, I'm ready for more trading. I learned something about myself and thus my trading last week in the middle of the jungle, if you accept your reality, I mean truly accept it in your heart, then your reality liberates you from all fear.
Ok, below are my new positions just opened in the last 24 hours and my add on USD/CHF. All positions are based on a 10k base. No Limit prices for now, will wait for next week's new MM targets.
USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611, 1.2539,1.2002*
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795
USD/JPY B 106.14*
NZD/USD B .6866*
EUR/JPY B 135.18*
EUR/CHF B 1.5289*
GBP/CHF B 2.1951*
Ok, below are my new positions just opened in the last 24 hours and my add on USD/CHF. All positions are based on a 10k base. No Limit prices for now, will wait for next week's new MM targets.
USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611, 1.2539,1.2002*
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795
USD/JPY B 106.14*
NZD/USD B .6866*
EUR/JPY B 135.18*
EUR/CHF B 1.5289*
GBP/CHF B 2.1951*
Please recall that I do not use price stops, nor do I use time stops anymore.
As I am trading a system, I only exit when I get an exit signal.
Because of the strong trend in USD/CHF and EUR/GBP, there has not been a strong exit signal on these two pairs for the last month.
When I do receive an exit signal, I will, most inevitably be taking a sizable loss. Earlier this week USD/CHF made an attempt at an exit signal, but it came up short. This is actually a bullish divergence in my experience. I have attached a chart below of the Daimyo reading.
As I am trading a system, I only exit when I get an exit signal.
Because of the strong trend in USD/CHF and EUR/GBP, there has not been a strong exit signal on these two pairs for the last month.
When I do receive an exit signal, I will, most inevitably be taking a sizable loss. Earlier this week USD/CHF made an attempt at an exit signal, but it came up short. This is actually a bullish divergence in my experience. I have attached a chart below of the Daimyo reading.
Attachments
USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611, 1.2539,1.2002 Limit 1.25
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795, .6963* Limit .6875
USD/JPY B 106.14 Limit 109.30
NZD/USD B .6866 Limit .7180
EUR/JPY B 135.18 Limit 137.10
EUR/CHF B 1.5289 Limit 1.5460
GBP/CHF B 2.1951 Limit 1.2420
*Final add on EUR/GBP was omitted last post
Priority of exit signals is Daimyo and then MMlines. The limits above are based upon MMlines, but as always, I will exit earlier if I get a Daimyo exit signal.
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795, .6963* Limit .6875
USD/JPY B 106.14 Limit 109.30
NZD/USD B .6866 Limit .7180
EUR/JPY B 135.18 Limit 137.10
EUR/CHF B 1.5289 Limit 1.5460
GBP/CHF B 2.1951 Limit 1.2420
*Final add on EUR/GBP was omitted last post
Priority of exit signals is Daimyo and then MMlines. The limits above are based upon MMlines, but as always, I will exit earlier if I get a Daimyo exit signal.
EUR/JPY B 135.18 Limit 137.10 +192
GBP/CHF B 2.1951 Exit 2.2200+249
Current Positions
USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611, 1.2539,1.2002 Limit 1.25*
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795, .6963 Limit .6875*
USD/JPY B 106.14 Limit 109.30
NZD/USD B .6866 Limit .7180
EUR/CHF B 1.5289 Limit 1.5460
*I still haven't received an exit signal. EUR/GBP is nearing one, but it continues to bounce prematurely to my systems exit conditions(A -100 Daimyo reading, a touch of the lower bollinger or the 4/8ths level MML). Again, I expect to eat a sizeable loss on these two positions, just not sure how large and when. I'm sitting on 7 months of substantially profitable trades(about 10,000 pips) so eventhough these losses( about 3480 pips at todays prices) sting more than I want to admit, I feel fairly confident that its a winning system and I will continue to post trades on my reversal system into the expected future.
I apoligize for this late post on my 2 exits above, I wasn't keeping close track of the markets last Friday.
If the statistics are correct that markets consolidate about 70% of the time and trend 30% of the time, if I am on the right side of 15% of the trends(I was positioned for the big move last month but exited early October several hundred pips shy of my intended targets) and get nailed in the crossfire of the other 15%, I still have a profitable system.
GBP/CHF B 2.1951 Exit 2.2200+249
Current Positions
USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611, 1.2539,1.2002 Limit 1.25*
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795, .6963 Limit .6875*
USD/JPY B 106.14 Limit 109.30
NZD/USD B .6866 Limit .7180
EUR/CHF B 1.5289 Limit 1.5460
*I still haven't received an exit signal. EUR/GBP is nearing one, but it continues to bounce prematurely to my systems exit conditions(A -100 Daimyo reading, a touch of the lower bollinger or the 4/8ths level MML). Again, I expect to eat a sizeable loss on these two positions, just not sure how large and when. I'm sitting on 7 months of substantially profitable trades(about 10,000 pips) so eventhough these losses( about 3480 pips at todays prices) sting more than I want to admit, I feel fairly confident that its a winning system and I will continue to post trades on my reversal system into the expected future.
I apoligize for this late post on my 2 exits above, I wasn't keeping close track of the markets last Friday.
If the statistics are correct that markets consolidate about 70% of the time and trend 30% of the time, if I am on the right side of 15% of the trends(I was positioned for the big move last month but exited early October several hundred pips shy of my intended targets) and get nailed in the crossfire of the other 15%, I still have a profitable system.
USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611, 1.2539,1.2002 Limit 1.25
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795, .6963 Limit .6875
USD/JPY B 106.14 Limit 109.30
NZD/USD B .6866 Limit .7180
EUR/CHF B 1.5289, 1.5187* Limit 1.5329
GBP/CHF B 2.1673* Limit 2.2100
EUR/USD held resistance yesterday, but the dollar is still showing incredible weakness today.:eek:
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795, .6963 Limit .6875
USD/JPY B 106.14 Limit 109.30
NZD/USD B .6866 Limit .7180
EUR/CHF B 1.5289, 1.5187* Limit 1.5329
GBP/CHF B 2.1673* Limit 2.2100
EUR/USD held resistance yesterday, but the dollar is still showing incredible weakness today.:eek:
I have decided to rework the system to minimize the drawdowns as I am currently sitting on a 30% drawdown from my account highs for the year.
After doing some scanning of my setups I decided on 6 major revisions in the system.
1)I will no longer average in to positions. I will enter two lots and exit at a loss on the first median line exit signal.
2)Signals will be based on 1 hour charts NOT 4 hour.
3)Daimyo has been discarded for a 25 period CCI.
4)No entry is to be made unless the CCI has first pierced the +/-200 level and THEN the 50 period Fibo-Bollinger Band has also been pierced.
5)There are two exit levels, first is the 50% fibo inside the 50 period Bollinger and the second, the 3rd outerlying fibo.
6)Since I don't expect to hold these trades for more than a week, I will once again short higher yielding currencies.
These revisions would have eliminated the majority of the current account drawdown.
I have annotated the last two setups on a chart below.
This system is just as profitable as the original Reversal system but it has a signifigantly smaller drawdown. GBP/USD grossed 500 pips in October and is already up 250 pips for November.
Please note that October had a very large trend which traded outside the 50 period Bollingers for quite some time, however, the revised system rules, which use the 25 period CCI, eliminated shorting the strong trend since there was no immediate sell signal when the Upper Bollinger was pierced.
After doing some scanning of my setups I decided on 6 major revisions in the system.
1)I will no longer average in to positions. I will enter two lots and exit at a loss on the first median line exit signal.
2)Signals will be based on 1 hour charts NOT 4 hour.
3)Daimyo has been discarded for a 25 period CCI.
4)No entry is to be made unless the CCI has first pierced the +/-200 level and THEN the 50 period Fibo-Bollinger Band has also been pierced.
5)There are two exit levels, first is the 50% fibo inside the 50 period Bollinger and the second, the 3rd outerlying fibo.
6)Since I don't expect to hold these trades for more than a week, I will once again short higher yielding currencies.
These revisions would have eliminated the majority of the current account drawdown.
I have annotated the last two setups on a chart below.
This system is just as profitable as the original Reversal system but it has a signifigantly smaller drawdown. GBP/USD grossed 500 pips in October and is already up 250 pips for November.
Please note that October had a very large trend which traded outside the 50 period Bollingers for quite some time, however, the revised system rules, which use the 25 period CCI, eliminated shorting the strong trend since there was no immediate sell signal when the Upper Bollinger was pierced.
Attachments
NZD/USD B .6866 Exit .7003 +137