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s&p just made intermediate term top @ 1431.8
- Thread starter thorn
- Start date
No, they were not in play.
The $TNX was on a downtrend until late November when the trend broke to the upside. Thats when you saw the indexes starting to get a little tired. A high $TNX is like kryptonite. The indexes rose as the $TNX went lower.
The bullish sentiment indicators for those months you mentioned were not over 70 for the $BPNYA. You can plainly see the sell signal on the following chart. This signal is tracked by many money managers. You can go to the stockcharts site yourself for more charts relating to additional indexes.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$BPNYA
As for the put/call, you can plainly see that the average is at a point not seen since early 2006. A high put/call is a bullish signal. The current trend in the $CPC is a classic trend reversal signal.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$CPC
The seasonality factors most everyone knows about and can be read about in books like Stock Traders Almanac. The end of the year is usually a highly bullish time.
Every index chart appears to be tired and not going up as they were in the fall.
Another assumption that was put forward by several money managers in the fall was that the rate hikes were now a thing of the past and it was likely that the Fed would cut rates. Bill Gross wrote on the PIMCO site that he thought the Fed would cute rates 4 times by the end of 2007. The market soared upwards on that logic. Now that thinking has been largely put in the dumpster behind Target.
The key chart for me is the bullish percent indicators which have always proven very reliable. When these indicators peak and pull back 6% then thats a classic signal.
The $TNX was on a downtrend until late November when the trend broke to the upside. Thats when you saw the indexes starting to get a little tired. A high $TNX is like kryptonite. The indexes rose as the $TNX went lower.
The bullish sentiment indicators for those months you mentioned were not over 70 for the $BPNYA. You can plainly see the sell signal on the following chart. This signal is tracked by many money managers. You can go to the stockcharts site yourself for more charts relating to additional indexes.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$BPNYA
As for the put/call, you can plainly see that the average is at a point not seen since early 2006. A high put/call is a bullish signal. The current trend in the $CPC is a classic trend reversal signal.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$CPC
The seasonality factors most everyone knows about and can be read about in books like Stock Traders Almanac. The end of the year is usually a highly bullish time.
Every index chart appears to be tired and not going up as they were in the fall.
Another assumption that was put forward by several money managers in the fall was that the rate hikes were now a thing of the past and it was likely that the Fed would cut rates. Bill Gross wrote on the PIMCO site that he thought the Fed would cute rates 4 times by the end of 2007. The market soared upwards on that logic. Now that thinking has been largely put in the dumpster behind Target.
The key chart for me is the bullish percent indicators which have always proven very reliable. When these indicators peak and pull back 6% then thats a classic signal.
Quote from Maverick74:
I hate to break it to you, but all those factors were in play last August, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, etc....
But it's different this time......LOL
Quote from thehangingman:
No, they were not in play.
The $TNX was on a downtrend until late November when the trend broke to the upside. Thats when you saw the indexes starting to get a little tired. A high $TNX is like kryptonite. The indexes rose as the $TNX went lower.
The bullish sentiment indicators for those months you mentioned were not over 70 for the $BPNYA. You can plainly see the sell signal on the following chart. This signal is tracked by many money managers. You can go to the stockcharts site yourself for more charts relating to additional indexes.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$BPNYA
As for the put/call, you can plainly see that the average is at a point not seen since early 2006. A high put/call is a bullish signal. The current trend in the $CPC is a classic trend reversal signal.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$CPC
The seasonality factors most everyone knows about and can be read about in books like Stock Traders Almanac. The end of the year is usually a highly bullish time.
Every index chart appears to be tired and not going up as they were in the fall.
Another assumption that was put forward by several money managers in the fall was that the rate hikes were now a thing of the past and it was likely that the Fed would cut rates. Bill Gross wrote on the PIMCO site that he thought the Fed would cute rates 4 times by the end of 2007. The market soared upwards on that logic. Now that thinking has been largely put in the dumpster behind Target.
The key chart for me is the bullish percent indicators which have always proven very reliable. When these indicators peak and pull back 6% then thats a classic signal.
Alright Dude, good luck with your short. I'll see you at higher prices next week. I've never seen so much gobbly gook to defend a short position. LOL.
Quote from thorn:
a few more stupid posts from you on my threads and you'll join the likes of bozente and apex capital as "jealous troll".
what is it we have to be jealous about??? you have missed the last 10 top calls you tried to make, then when it happens you change it from selling calls three months out to selling calls today for the end of the month. It seems that in the thorn world of investing you are able to make "double digit returns every year since inception" without having ever been right on a single trade. yes thorns wonderful fantasy world of investing is a great place to be.
you can almost feel the zeros making their exit out of thorns POS multi billion dollar hedgefundm, which he has single handedly taken from billions to nothing, as he gets more and more disgruntled on internet forums.
please honour your word and quit posting your useless garbage top calls.
Quote from thorn:
You know i've long given up on being specific on ET b/c of the maggots. You can thank bozente, apex capital etc for my silence. But in honor of MLK day, i'll give you this:
you missed many of the reasons, but this is my rationale in this order:
1) excessively high bullish sentiment
2) rising bond yields
3) the year before an election
these 3 reasons are more than enough to put the s&p on track for a negative year.
Historically, #3 is bullish for stocks...why do you think this time it will be different?
How do you manage a 12 figure hedgefund ?
You start with a 24 figure one and try to call numerous tops during a 300 point up move.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=38214&highlight=top
You start with a 24 figure one and try to call numerous tops during a 300 point up move.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=38214&highlight=top
A running corrective phase (wave 4) has unfolded for the past 5 weeks suggesting that the bottom of wave four was completed at the 1403.97 level on January 8th. This suggests that the next sequence will unfold in a similar length of wave 1, which was approximately 57 points in length. This indicates that the next sequence should be completed between the 1453.75/1459.50 levels. This will likely unfold over the next 34 days. It will take a close above the 1433.15 level today to confirm this analysis. Should this occur, the short-term target is the 1439.20 level and will likely be completed in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The resistance today is at the 1433.15 level. If penetrated a rally toward the 1435.20 level will be signaled. Should this level be penetrated a rally toward the 1439.20 level will unfold.