S&P 500 Views and Trading

What Level Should S&P 500 Be This Week?

  • 1560

    Votes: 11 27.5%

  • 1550

    Votes: 2 5.0%

  • 1540

    Votes: 3 7.5%

  • 1530

    Votes: 5 12.5%

  • 1520

    Votes: 3 7.5%

  • 1500

    Votes: 6 15.0%

  • 1480

    Votes: 10 25.0%
  • Total voters
    40
  • Poll closed .
<a href="http://bp0.blogger.com/_J4aufc5OHIQ/RnbuuYLf-mI/AAAAAAAAAsY/xHW_Yi26GYw/s1600-h/spx1.gif"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5077508110438890082" style="CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://bp0.blogger.com/_J4aufc5OHIQ/RnbuuYLf-mI/AAAAAAAAAsY/xHW_Yi26GYw/s400/spx1.gif" border="0" /></a>
<div>Today is a very boring day for future and Forex trading, however, crude oil is up very nicely.

Fundamental views:

Today, bond price is a little volatile, which means we have disputation on economy, rate cut or not. PIMCO¡¯s Mcculley still expects a cut this year. The summer rally has begun in oil, but not for the stock market. However, the summer colling leads to a 2.9% down in natural gas. From NAHB, housing market is far away from bottom yet. If house is a really trouble maker next half year, are US bonds in a bear market? Gold,silver rise as dollar decline. Yen drops to record low against euro as greedy becomes dominated.

For tomorrow, German Zew news will be out 5:00am and CAD cpi, 7:00am. At 8:30 am, US housing strats, expected 1.48M and building permits, expected 1.47M, will surely affect the SPX tones. From today¡¯s NAHB, the reports might not be that great.

Technical views:

Nothing changes my views on SPX¡¯s TA from yesterday. The insider candlestick only means indecisive situation. It is still in either double tops or break mood. A falling down candlestick might take SPX sharply down to 1513 area tomorrow. Of course, a break out today¡¯s high candle stick can bring SP to 1540 area or new high territory.

Pivot Point: 1531.91

R1: 1534.51, R2: 1537.99, R3: 1544.07, S1: 1528.43, S2: 1525.83, S3: 1519.75

Resistance Levels

1540.56 ¨C all time closing high.
1552 ¨C All time intraday closing high.
1562 ¨C Fibo (1363 this year low, 1461, this year break)

Support Levels

1525 ¨C 5/22, 23. 24 congestion
1513, 1515 ¨C 5/9 high, 6/11 neckline
1500 ¨C Key number

Directional Bias:

Nearer Term (1-3 days) ¨C Neutral
Short Term (1-2 weeks) ¨C Neutral
Medium Term (1-2 months) ¨C Bearish
Long term (6 months -1 year) ¨C bullish

Tuesday Trading Range:

High 1532

Low 1515

My projected price for Tuesday: 1520

My trading today: 1547-1550= Gain 3 pts, another order short 1547.25 still open
 
just covered the ES 1544, today total gain 6.25, hmm, a boring day. and I might take a trade after China market open. till now, I am not sure which side to bet.
 
U.S. housing market: Sentiment among U.S. home builders drop in June to the lowest level in more than 16 years; Summary of analyst commentary - "It means that the housing market downturn has a long way to play out" (Matthew Moore at Banc of America)
- "The bottom of the housing market appears nowhere in sight." (Patrick McPherron at Moody's Economy.com)
- NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders: "It's clear that the crisis in the subprime sector has prompted tighter lending standards in much of the mortgage market, and interest rates on prime-quality home mortgages have moved up considerably during the past month along with long-term Treasury rates."
- NAHB President: "With inventories as high as they are, and with interest rates coming up a little, it's just going to extend the impact of the housing downturn. At the same time, the rest of the economy seems to be holding up quite well, and as the housing market declines it becomes less part of the economy and less important for growth."
 
TTN ANALYSIS - CHINESE EQUITY OUTLOOK: CHINESE SHARES EXPECTED TO OPEN HIGHER ON CAPITAL INFLOWS, BUT GAINS MAY BE LIMITED ON NEWS THAT CHINESE REGULATORS REPRIMANDED EIGHT DOMESTIC BANKS OVER THE IMPROPER CHANNELING OF FUNDS

(till now, aussie, japan market measure with US equity market loss, and the China market open might be the main topic for tonight ES's direction).

<img src="http://www.briefing.com/Common/Images/Content/PageContent/EcData/startsma.gif">
<img src="http://www.briefing.com/Common/Images/Content/PageContent/EcData/startsnt.gif" width="500" height="300" alt="Milford Sound in New Zealand" />

I am thinking the house start numbers might be good because it is upping every month from Jan.

Category May Apr Mar Feb Jan

Starts 1.490 M E 1.528 1.491 1.487 1.403
Permits 1.480 M E 1.457 1.569 1.541 1.566

for the starts a range 1.48-1.52 neutral to the market, below 1.48 negative, above 1.53 bullish. same as permits.
 
Quote from SiSePuede!:

Could be weather related. As cold weather abates building conditions are better.
More...

Hmmm, if that, tomorrow's number should not be bad at least.

Why today's volume is so low? QQQQ, SPY, dia all low volume (almost lowest volume this year), good or bad????????

Any idea?
 
Quote from wshhmm:

Hmmm, if that, tomorrow's number should not be bad at least.

Why today's volume is so low? QQQQ, SPY, dia all low volume (almost lowest volume this year), good or bad????????

Any idea?
More...

The volume might enter the trade TLT, huge volume today, a bottom sign.
 
I am gonna short ES at 1544.75 and stop loss 2 pts with the slow trading. I expect it will down some before or after euro session open. TP 1541.75, that was the small support.

Also I am thinking to short Gold around 660, not decide yet.

EU and GU are my favor trading and at this level, I would watch it, keeping bearish for them.
 
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