S&P 500 Views and Trading

What Level Should S&P 500 Be This Week?

  • 1560

    Votes: 11 27.5%

  • 1550

    Votes: 2 5.0%

  • 1540

    Votes: 3 7.5%

  • 1530

    Votes: 5 12.5%

  • 1520

    Votes: 3 7.5%

  • 1500

    Votes: 6 15.0%

  • 1480

    Votes: 10 25.0%
  • Total voters
    40
  • Poll closed .
Quote from stock_trad3r:

They have housing starts, but what about housing stops?
More...

I have no idea about house is good or bad just follow the economy numbers and market reaction and forget all lies told by....

Last week, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan chimed in with ¡®his take¡¯ on the likelihood of China pulling the plug on their willingness to hold U.S. Treasury Debt.

The good news: ¡°There is little reason to fear a wholesale pullout by China out of U.S. government bonds, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday.¡±

The bad news: ¡°Greenspan said the reason such a withdrawal was unlikely was that China would not have anyone to sell the securities to.¡±

[BUNDS] Bunds In April, Chinese investors sold the most US Treasuries in 7 years; In April China sold a net of $5.8B Treasuries - US Treasury
 
U.S. MARKET UPDATE
Dow -4 S&P -1.6 NASDAQ -4.8
- Indices remain fairly stable after housing starts and building permits confirm the current weakness in the residential real estate market. Best Buy is off 5% after reporting somewhat disappointing Q1 earnings putting pressure on other electronics retailers. CC -3.2% RSH -3% Yahoo is down 1% as traders who bought the long running rumor of the departure of CEO Terry Semel, have used yesterday's post close announcement to sell the news. Treasury futures continue to hold as yields retreat. The Benchmark yield is below 5.12% while the 2-year offers 4.967%. Crude futures have spent the morning in negative territory with weakness in gasoline, down 1.5% leading the way. Currency markets are fairly quiet with Cable exhibiting a bit of strength ahead of tomorrow's release of the BofE minutes. The dollar is also lower against the Yen after the Tanken Survey suggested Japanese manufacturer's confidence rises in June while the outlook improves. August Gold is near session highs up $1.40 to $661.30.

(it seems SP500 tries to stay above last history high 1527).
 
First I like this chart.

<img src="http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded_files/649110A.png">

Today is another boring day for trading.

Fundamental views:

Bond yields retreated for a third day, to 5.086%, and oil is heading $70.

Tomorrow, there is no economy news except regular crude oil inventories report.

Technical views:

Nothing change in the SPX chart.

Resistance Levels

1540.56 ¨C all time closing high.
1552 ¨C All time intraday closing high.
1562 ¨C Fibo (1363 this year low, 1461, this year break)

Support Levels

1527.57 - Previous history high
1525 ¨C 5/22, 23. 24 congestion
1513, 1515 ¨C 5/9 high, 6/11 neckline
1500 ¨C Key number

Directional Bias:

Nearer Term (1-3 days) ¨C Neutral
Short Term (1-2 weeks) ¨C Neutral
Medium Term (1-2 months) ¨C Bearish
Long term (6 months -1 year) ¨C bullish

Wednesday Trading Range:

High 1545

Low 1530

My projected price for Tuesday: 1540

My trading today: I predicted wrong direction today and shorted early. However, I managed even today.
 
Today is an exciting day with all indexes down more than 1%.

Fundamental views:

Bond yields was up to 5.12%, which bring SPX down 20.86 pts, or 1.36%. Crude oil falls more than $0.8 for the old game play: oil inventories. Of course, gold, silver decline as bonds yields up.

Tomorrow, SPX will get the news impact: Unemployment claims at 8:30am.

Technical views:

The picture is changing; SPX is confirming double tops today. And I start to short any rally from now. SPX never had a 10% pull back for the almost 5 year long bull market, now it is time to get the reality back.

The chart is ugly, frankly. SPX retraces 50% from the recent high and low. 1550 is the up trend line that should get some support. A below 1490 will get a sharp decline to 1461.57, which is major support from Feb 22 high. SPY already kissed the up trend today.

Resistance Levels

1527 ¨C Previous history high
1540.56 ¨C all time closing high.
1552 ¨C All time intraday closing high.
1562 ¨C Fibo (1363 this year low, 1461, this year break)

Support Levels

1513, 1515 ¨C 5/9 high, 6/11 neckline
1500 ¨C Key number
1487 ¨C June 8 Low
1461.57 ¨C Feb 22 high

Directional Bias:

Nearer Term (1-3 days) ¨C bearish
Short Term (1-2 weeks) ¨C bearish
Medium Term (1-2 months) ¨C Bearish
Long term (6 months -1 year) ¨C neutral

Thursday Trading Range:

High 1527

Low 1500

My projected price for Tomorrw: 1510

My trading today: I didn¡¯t have trade today because I had other stuff to do.
 
Daily S&P 500 Views & Trading

Today's trading is very chopping, and it is hard for day traders.

Fundamental views:

Stock market bounce because of Philadelphia Fed index jump to record high! very interersting number for me. It seems the 10 year treasury has lost its reputation for the stock market quickly. Crude oil is still above $68.

Technical views:

The bounce is around 50% from yesterday's loss, which might be dead cat rebounce. The volume is bigger, which means the gain can't match the volume. With Nasdaq gained 17 pts, however, the gaining issues topped decliners only by 15 to 14.

COT Data for last week:

Commercial: 552437 contracts long, 557636 contracts short, neutral with a little bit bearish. This was first week since 4/10, commercial had more short than long. But there is no big difference. However, I believe, this week, Commercial should have more short than longs that should bring S&P more bearish view.
Change in commercial long all: 49648. Change in commercial short all: 55150 , and this is third week, commercial add more shorts than longs especially the week 6/5, which add more then 10000 short contracts. From here, S&P might be starting to go bearish slowly.

Pivot Point

1520.84

Resistance Levels

1527 - Previous history high
1540.56 ¨C all time closing high.
1552 ¨C All time intraday closing high.
1562 ¨C Fib (1363 this year low, 1461, this year break)

Support Levels

1513, 1515 ¨C 5/9 high, 6/11 neckline
1500 ¨C Key number
1487 ¨C June 8 Low
1461.57 ¨C Feb 22 high

Directional Bias:

Nearer Term (1-3 days) ¨C bearish
Short Term (1-2 weeks) ¨C bearish
Medium Term (1-2 months) ¨C Bearish
Long term (6 months -1 year) ¨C neutral

Weekly Trading Range:

High: 1552

Low: 1550

Next day Trading Range:

High 1520

Low 1410

My projected Price for this week: 1510

My projected price for tomrrow: 1510

Today's Trading: lost 2 pts.
 
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